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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #3371 (permalink)
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Wow, Gary. Very thought provoking. Thanks. Catching the biggggg wave...it that the siren of the market?



It is the siren of someone who is trapped by fear and hopes I can hear them.

I have no rules for staying in a trade, only for getting out, getting in, when I can trade, etc. My beliefs that established those rules came from a desire to prevent loss more than accept gain, and that has my focus on what I do not want.

I am a better chart analyst today than I was last year, and my beliefs today are in conflict. I trade in the past, so to speak, and what binds me to that is fear and a belief in limitation. Even at a single contract, I cannot believe in a target that is beyond 40-50 ticks, even though I do believe in that limitation when I am flat.

Also, since my focus is on the negative, and I have nothing to force me to stay in a trade, as I add contracts the "feeling" part intensifies, and the targets get smaller and smaller. Nothing changes outside myself, but the greater the risk, the more it changes how I feel. I will never gain true comfort with "size" if operate from fear. I close too quickly. My rules today say I am allowed to close.

I believe if I allow myself to reinforce the validity of greater targets, it will help me all around. The focus shifts to what I want, not what I don't.


Last edited by GaryD; July 4th, 2012 at 07:02 PM.
 
  #3372 (permalink)
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Thursday has a lot of potential movement-creating news around the open, with most likely low trading volume...

7:00 a.m. Britain BOE rate decision

7:45 a.m Euro Zone ECB rate decision

8:15 a.m. U.S. ADP Employment

8:30 a.m. U.S. Jobless claims

10:00 a.m. U.S. ISM Non-manufacturing



Meanwhile, crude has possibly been infected again by Iran, with recent missile testing, a threat to wipe Israel off the face of the earth, and talk of blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

There is a local and global double bottom in place, crude has been attempting to establish a new uptrend... There are a lot of possible areas from 88 down , but 80.50 - 81.50 is what I consider the strongest line of defense. North of that I would prefer to buy, but can't really decide where and have not really decided on a plan for tomorrow. Maybe the overnight action will make things more clear.


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ECB rate decision caused CL to pullback from lowside resistance about 100 ticks so far, but I am still not interested in selling yet.



Yesterday's chart


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Updated today to divide resistance into two areas, the higher timeframe being considered stronger, and support redefined.

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  #3375 (permalink)
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  #3376 (permalink)
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@##%&@!!!

I closed it at +60... what is my problem??



 
  #3377 (permalink)
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OK, I am taking a break.

I only wanted to trade long today, but 81 is a long ways down there. I waited for support zone #1 to take, entered at the first break above the DT3 at the impulse DC, and waited. Went in with 2, exitted one at +20, tightened stop... made it to +50...

Then FOLDED.

I saw "60" and it triggered a response in me that says that is about the max of a single push, at least one that is not news dirven. But, I did not follow the STAY IN rule, which was the new indicator I added this weekend.


To make a shift, I removed the black & white bars, not what I want anymore, and added the SuperTredU11, which I played with for about 4 hours off and on yesterday to see what I wanted it to do, based on past experience and how it related to movement and the DCs I watch.

But I failed today.

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GaryD View Post
OK, I am taking a break.

I only wanted to trade long today, but 81 is a long ways down there. I waited for support zone #1 to take, entered at the first break above the DT3 at the impulse DC, and waited. Went in with 2, exitted one at +20, tightened stop... made it to +50...

Then FOLDED.

I saw "60" and it triggered a response in me that says that is about the max of a single push, at least one that is not news dirven. But, I did not follow the STAY IN rule, which was the new indicator I added this weekend.


To make a shift, I removed the black & white bars, not what I want anymore, and added the SuperTredU11, which I played with for about 4 hours off and on yesterday to see what I wanted it to do, based on past experience and how it related to movement and the DCs I watch.

But I failed today.



End of day, I got out near the high of day, and it fell back below the entry.

That is why have learned to get out at +40 to +60. And today I was upset with myself for executing a near flawless trade...


So price action today only reinforced a belief I am trying to eliminate.


Today did not have the right setup. I said on Sunday that the support above 81 something was all over the place...

There are times to hold on, and times to take what the market offers. And no "rule" can define that.

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  #3379 (permalink)
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Surfing the waves on crude...Gary style

Went in 4 contracts deep last night

Stop limit @ 86.40

Risk 30 tick stop

1st target 1/2 off @ +30 (60 ticks profit)

2nd target 1/4 off @ +69 (80 ticks profit)

Final target swing low @ 84`s Target 84.20 (220 ticks profit)

Lovley move down

approaching final target as we speek

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" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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greenr View Post
Went in 4 contracts deep last night

Stop limit @ 86.40

Risk 30 tick stop

1st target 1/2 off @ +30 (60 ticks profit)

2nd target 1/4 off @ +69 (80 ticks profit)

Final target swing low @ 84`s Target 84.20 (220 ticks profit)

Lovley move down

approaching final target as we speek

Attachment 80379

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