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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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Crude continued it's respect of the trenline through the overnight action, turning in an area I had marked last night on a 30 minute as likely to provide support. However, it still falls short of breaking out of the 79.50 - 79.70 range.

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The top just broke on high volume, what may prove to be te first of several stops to blow. I am out, not comfortable reading volume before 9am.

But, at the same time, the euro just went the other way, ES broke it's top but right into prior low resistance...

 
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Wave C got a very good push, but it stopped short of any defined target. Sometimes that is "good enough", and today at the EIA release, it was almost convincing that is was. But I have learned to doubt failed targets that come so close.

The other day on the major 5WM down, I did not trade it there, but watched the entire time, with near certainty that it was pointless to deny the final destination. And had enough conviction that I went long when it hit. As is my flaw, I did not hold it for more than a few minutes, but the turn I recognized as first class.

I am really trying to get my head into finding the zones, confirming them, taking the trade, and not letting go until the next zone. That may mean hours, or days, or weeks. And along the way it may give me 40 ticks and then stop me out. It may consolidate for days, showing +50, -30, over and over. That type of hold is near torture to me. I would like to discover why, and am working on it. The obvious answer is not it, or I would not keep asking.

What causes us to want immediate gratification with inferior value? We overwhelming prefer the known over the unknown, even if we know, have proof even, that the unknown offers greater reward.

I think it is self doubt.

There are no magic indicators, there is no infallible system. There is an ideal way of thinking about trading. And my study recently, I am finding is more about that, and less about trading.

The time I spend in chart analysis is becoming less and less, and the time I spend in personal analysis more and more. The trading wins and losses are not always "money" to me lately, but more an indicator as to how well I understand myself. If I make 20 ticks on a 120 tick move, it was me. If I give back a win, it was me. If I miss a trade, same guy.

I read charts to understand what the rest of the world is seeing. That is what moves the markets with such precision... collective interpretation.

But what moves me is far more mysterious.


Last edited by GaryD; June 27th, 2012 at 11:35 PM.
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It is trying...


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The way it got here, I am not buying, just watching

 
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Potential washout...

 
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