Traders seem to join together on an anticipated wave, whether it makes sense or not. The collective mindset becomes the reality.
Short traders understood the potential for a WC, and probably get out on a major reversal, and long traders jump in when the power shifts. The real push came today at the 30 minute 2BH.
I do not like the 30m from a patience standpoint, but I respect it. I typically go from 1 minute straight to 30 minute, with nothing in between but the 6 range. I have played with 3, 5, 10, 15, but the "king" on a lower level seems to be the 30.
I wish it were the 5, as 30 minutes can feel like forever, but for candlestick patterns that make sense to me, on crude oil, that is about as low as I have found I should believe in. That up bar today "engulfed" at least 10 historical bars. Boom.
I don't feel like buying CL right now for some reason. I am sure the headlines play into it, but I am kind of growing numb to them. This morning it was more that CL had been the weakest of the 3, and now seems to be the strongest, but the pull of the other markets that existed for the past few weeks is being tested, and if it does shift, those decouplings can be hard to adapt to, which make me less confident in my ability to interpret what is going on, and/or what is to be expected.
While the charts suggest to continue to pursue the WC, I am questioning doing so. Maybe it is the countertrend nature if a C wave. maybe they are not worth chasing? I do know that my bias this morning helped me today, and that having some guess as to where price is in waves gives me another thing to provide structure to chaos... I hit the up move hard a couple times, and it was only because I believed in structure, but not the price of oil.
Last edited by GaryD; June 25th, 2012 at 11:00 PM.
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The major trendline held, despite waht seemed to be a big negative reaction to comments frlom Italy and Germany... I am not sure what I want to do, other than watch. ES in a 10 point channel, went back to meet both ends in the hour after the news...
Italy's Monti says pre-prepared EU declarations unacceptable
Reuters | 26 Jun 2012 | 11:07 AM ET
ROME (Reuters) - Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti said on Tuesday that he would not rubber stamp conclusions for this week's European Union summit that is supposed to map out the future of the euro but would fight for concrete measures to help growth and contain market turmoil.
"This will not be a meeting where we will give formal approval to pre-prepared documents," Monti said in parliament ahead of the summit on Thursday and Friday.
He said Europe needed to agree a mechanism to help limit any sharp widening in the spreads or risk premiums over benchmark German debt on bonds issued by countries that respect EU budget rules.
Monti said he was willing to work through "Sunday evening" for a solid EU growth plan and to get "mechanisms to help control market tensions".
Monti emphasized the need for the EU to turn its focus on growth to prevent countries from falling into a low-growth, high-debt spiral that is worsened by concentrating solely on austerity measures.
(Reporting by Catherine Hornby. Writing by Steve Scherer.)
Merkel's alleged debt remark hits stocks, euro
FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks weakened and the euro fell Tuesday after Reuters reported that German Chancellor Angela Merkel was quoted as telling members of a party in her ruling coalition that Europe wouldn't have shared total debt liability "as long as I live." The report said the comments were reported by participants in a meeting with members of the Free Democrats, the junior member of Merkel's coalition government. U.S. equities initially dipped after the report before rebounding, while the euro (ICAPC:EURUSD) extended a loss. U.S. equities are now mixed, while the euro remains lower versus the dollar at $1.2463, down from around $1.2501 in North American trade late Monday.