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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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GaryD View Post
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And there was me groaning the other day to you about the pathetic gale force winds in London :-D

I will shut my noise

Least you get the weather to justify such events, looks like our British summer has vanished again.....

The discipline trader, great read hope you enjoy Gary

Got some other great books to read, when your done

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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greenr View Post
And there was me groaning the other day to you about the pathetic gale force winds in London :-D


Possible force on oil futures

 
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Yesterday I made about $1400.00. On max 2 contracts. You would think that would make me happy. Maybe my mind is twisted and I should be happy and quit thinking about it. But I look back and feel like I traded like a pussy.

There are only really a few places where my experience says the odds are really heavily weighted in my favor. The completion of a five wave move, with such near perfect geometry,on a daily chart...if that does not catch the attention of the majority of educated traders nothing will. That did not mean anything had changed to cause price to go up fundamentally, but psychologically, absolutely.

I felt the BEST odds were for AT LEAST a range bound day, and so set my target for the prior high range. And then, being a Friday, having drilled into my mind that I should treat it differently, I went in with 2 contracts, hit it another time with 1, both for relatively tiny moves. And then backed off. Instead of "pressing when I am right", I pull back to remain "right". Having an ending balance higher at the end of the day is "success" in some ways.

But, in a situation like yesterday, which only comes every so often, the posibilty for a extended move is also there. You may recall the time I went max down and commented I was going for $12,000 on 6 contracts. The next setup I got, it did move the $2 up. yesterday's move, $2 up. And I grabbed a few pennies out of it.

So what happens, is I can be profitable and still feel like a loser. I know that may sound like "boo hoo, poor me", but it is the pursuit of excellence, or at least the pursuit of improvement, and I am functioning at a frustrating level of effectiveness.

I know the crude oil market as well as probably most traders. This week, @greenr asked where I thought crude was going. I had two zones, about a dollar apart. CL made a significant and tradeable pause at the first, and when it broke below it had nothing to stop it but the second. Freefall. I KNEW that, but did I catch that move? No. I never, almost never, hold a trade for it's intended target. I got a few coins, yes. Bravo. Loser.

And on the few times I do hold my ground and go for a major target, I get mixed results that cause me to go back to taking 30-40 ticks, because I know those moves are infinitely re-creatable and make trading feel more like a high probability event instead of a lottery ticket.

I know it has to do with the lack of confidence I have developed, but that does not seem to change my bevahior. So I am considering a technical rule. I have read so many; trailing 3 bar high/low, ATR, standard deviation, but have never backtested any of them that prove better than the other. What I do know, is I can spot a turn pretty well, eerily well some days. I have even practiced intentionally trading against the trend. Key inflection points combined with volume give 20-30 tick bursts. But, I would prefer to expand my view to 100-300 tick moves.

In summary, I settle for scraps, like the remora, and don't dare attempt the real meal. I can make money and feel horrible, because I don't see the dollars as much as I see the psychological weakness. I see that the person I used to be may be gone. It's almost like this is not about trading, but a proving ground to find the person I once was. A place to be myself again. To be the eternal optimist again, to believe in unlimited opportunity.

I read about traders like Tom Baldwin and Mark Cook (whose record I have read may be in question? That would be sad, because he is a personal favorite), who claim to not desire to go for the longer moves, and yet they are thought of as some of the best traders in the world. And I think to myself, maybe that is the way to go, stop questioning it, stop looking at what I missed. If it were not for the fact that choosing that path feels more like accepting my fear and limiting my potential than it feels like I believe in myself. It does not matter how other traders trade, what matters is that I lack confidence.

Trading with anything resembling "size" would feel so much calmer if the target were 200 ticks and the stop 25 ticks. And I do enter those trades with decent regularity.

As I type this it occurs to me that to me, becoming a truly succesful trader is not just about making money. It is about feeling good, having confidence, not allowing the market noise to talk me into second guessing myself. If I see a pattern set up, and don't see anything that would stop it, I should just let myself be right. But I don't. I see when the most likely distance is reached, based on my backtesting, and then start to feel like I am pressing my luck by not getting out. Is that the right thing?

I have found that going to the gym and seeing the slow build of strength is helping me with a physical representation of the process. It requires repetition, pushing myself, not stopping just because I am tired or don't feel like it. Maybe the tick size of my targets is no different than the numbers on the sides of the weights. I want to go from curling 35 pounds to 70 pounds, tomorrow. But the reality is, I may never curl 70 pounds. If that is really what I want, yes, it is possible. But it is going to require a lot more work from where I am today. Is it worth it? Is the goal to be as big and strong as I can, or just to be "healthy"? If one person chooses one and someone else the other, are either right or wrong?

There is no correct answer that applies universally, other than, did that person accomplish what they desired?

The $250 that was won in the trading journal contest sat in an Amazon account until recently. Yesterday I received my first reward out of it, a copy of The Disciplined Trader, by Mark Douglass. I am growing tired of trading books, have a library already, and had looked at this one online more than once in the past and then not bought it. But a couple weeks ago I found a recording of a seminar he did, and thought that what he was suggesting was more what I need now. Not a technical education, but a psychological education. Sure I could always learn more technically, but when I weigh myself as a trader I am still very light on the psychological side. Maybe not in writing, but in practice. That part of me suffered significant damage, and unless I make it a very concentrated focus, I will not rebuild.

Confidence that comes naturally is different than confidence that comes back after failure. The former is easy, the latter hard earned. Very hard.

---------------
@GaryD asked me about 'exits' in an email.

1st of all; I am a regular trader that just got good at nearly every aspect of trading through WORK & lessons learned~same as all veteran traders.

It is my belief (I could be wrong) that Gary is trading like a pussy (intraday) @great risk:reward levels because he is focused on being right for that big move that is paralyzing him in the moment~frozen if you will.

If he puts the trade on he goes small and then bails. Very typical behavior from a trader that has not written out a detailed 'scenario' sheet and also quantified the exact max. risk and approximate reward target(s) he is looking for.

You have to OWN {the subconscious RESOLVE} before you can do it (consistently). F*ck the money & F*ck about being 100% correct on big risk:reward setups.

You triangulate a low or high; confirm it; trade it; follow through on it.

I'll tell everyone another story (I think I wrote about this many pages back~this thread is long, so--I'll repeat).

I use to work with a brilliant mentor who was an obsessive chart freak and could identify swing turnpoints with about 85% accuracy (75% winners/10-12.5% scratch/1--12.5% small pre-defined losers).

We would have moderate size going into the targeted time & price turning point in currencies/interest rates/indices/grains & metals. We would make nice shekels into the turn and then CLOSE out our trade.

Frequently markets turn at levels that no one wants to step in front of or they turn w/funny mentals announcements, etc...

The vast majority of traders do not want to enter (retail traders) around these levels because they don't have the brass balls it takes to trade with size at turning points. That is fine, the world needs workers too.

Let me continue; so how did I (my mentor never consistently made the transition) step up and act like a man and a professional trader and begin trading time & price turning points {whatever your methodology is} with size?

I am a severe right-brain individual. More artistic and libertine and brutally open minded than most--I don't allow this to leak into my trading.

What helped me (more than anything) was the following

a) I stopped thinking about the f*king money. Trading is a journey and not a destination. If I made 30K on a swingtrade (trading size correctly) or if I traded into the turning point with small/moderate size and then went flat and made 4K; how do either of these numbers change me as a man in my stupid little day to day life?

It doesn't; I still have to go workout~~I still have to make my own coffee on the weekends~~I still have to look in the mirror (I try not to) @the end of the night and look at me and realize I am not the money I make.

Don't count your money before/during or after the trade (concentrate on your % risk and use margin appropriately)~~the time to look at your $$ situation is at the end of the week or every 2 weeks or every month. I personally approach it quarterly; like a business does.

Okay; so you say I am properly margined for a larger swingtrade~I know my risk, I have it written out (the levels) and am ready to go in with size and I have a feel for where my targets are. Why can't I follow through consistently and why oh why (sweet baby j*sus) can I not hold my 'multiple contracts' to the calculated targets?

b) Structure & Discipline: You simply have to follow a written trading plan because in the heat of the (for you) large moves you will not be able to think objectively. That is obvious; you are not a special person--you are human. None of your skills in other professions (unless you are a secret agent or professional card player/athlete etc...) will be of any bloody use to you while in a large swingtrade.

Until you are able to do the intended behavior according to your plan at least 20-50X's+; your ability to think (the artistic and intuitive and subjective and discretionary aspects of your brain) is nearly non-existent.

So how to get to the other side, no?

I humbly suggest

1) Incremental increases in size; be it CL or mini CL (QM) or ETF's or international forex 'Energy CFD's etc...

It is easier to go from bangin' a 'Jersey 8' to a 'Miami 7' vs going from a 'Chicago 6' to a 'Milan 9'/'Rio 9'/'L.A. 9'~~you get the belabored point.

OR

2) Pick an acceptable risk:reward ratio and stick with it. Most traders use at least a 1:2 on their 1st 'scale out' & then pick 1 to 2 extended ratio targets--such as 1:2.5 or 1:3+

How to trail your profit stop. Find a method that suits YOU, your personality or whatever turns you on; then stick with it for at least 20 swingtrades.

I have alot more to write about on this topic over time (if anyone wants more 'medicine'). However, my ghetto boat, the S.S. Girly Boy needs my attention today; Herr Hedvig is going to have a good time today until markets open @6pm est USA.

peace & blessings!

hedvig

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researcher247 View Post
---------------
@GaryD asked me about 'exits' in an email.



It is my belief (I could be wrong) that Gary is trading like a pussy (intraday) @great risk:reward levels because he is focused on being right for that big move that is paralyzing him in the moment~frozen if you will.



hedvig

Thats not nice researcher even if this is the case

cracking me up again hedvig!

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
 
  #3306 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
Possible force on oil futures

Indeed so, the old hurrican watch is a funny aspect that effects the the markets

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
 
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Besides the daily 5WM that crude just completed and seemed to confirm with high volume on the Thursday close, the low price reached of 77.56 is 7 tiny ticks from a direct hit double bottom with the major pivot at 77.49 established on 10/5/11.


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I went back and re-establised the 100% of Wave 1 using the spike high from 3/2/12, and that extends the W5 minimum target down to 76.98. which I will use as the initial major support zone for the week ahead. Further down, 74.90 provides a prior major LSP/RSP, and below that somewhere in the 70-71 area are the next potential major support zones.


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Adding to the potential for price support is tropical "something" Debby, with several major oil companies already performing some preliminary evacuations, and, the EU sanctions on Iran scheduled for July 1.

If nothing else, there is the potential for a psychological base under the market near term.

 
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researcher247 View Post
---------------
It is my belief (I could be wrong) that Gary is trading like a pussy (intraday) @great risk:reward levels because he is focused on being right for that big move that is paralyzing him in the moment~frozen if you will.


It would be better if we were in agreement over something besides that, but we are in agreement nonetheless. It is easier to be "right" on smaller moves, easier to be "right" when I close a trade while it is ahead.

My mind's focus is 70% on the turning point, 29% on any profit, and 1% on a target. To me, for who knows why, the "target" is mostly the next place I would want to enter short, instead of exit long. The lines on the chart are the same, but I only am receiving a portion of the benefit from them.

For the most part, I know where to enter. I need to condition myself to set it free after I do. It's hard to do because, I think, I want confirmation on a regular basis, some tangible evidence that I am right?

"Needy" almost. Constantly asking price, "Do you love me? How much do you love me?" every five fucking minutes. LOL!!! At least I got a laugh out of that, but it seems somewhat pitiful when I read it again. I always have the option to hit the backspace key, yet rarely do.

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From Wikipedia;

Confidence is generally described as a state of being certain either that a hypothesis or prediction is correct or that a chosen course of action is the best or most effective. Self-confidence is having confidence in oneself. Arrogance or hubris in this comparison, is having unmerited confidence—believing something or someone is capable or correct when they are not. Overconfidence or presumptuousness is excessive belief in someone (or something) succeeding, without any regard for failure. Scientifically, a situation can only be judged after the aim has been achieved or not. Confidence can be a self-fulfilling prophecy as those without it may fail or not try because they lack it and those with it may succeed because they have it rather than because of an innate ability.

Self-confidence does not necessarily imply 'self-belief' or a belief in one's ability to succeed. For instance, one may be inept at a particular sport or activity, but remain 'confident' in one's demeanor, simply because one does not place a great deal of emphasis on the outcome of the activity. When one does not dwell on negative consequences one can be more 'self-confident' because one is worrying far less about failure or the disapproval of others following potential failure. One is then more likely to focus on the actual situation which means that enjoyment and success in that situation is also more probable. Belief in one's abilities to perform an activity comes through successful experience and may add to, or consolidate, a general sense of self-confidence.

 
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Support is the easy side today, resistance is starting out as a trainwreck. The 786 of the minor wave down at 80.32 provided resistance into the pit close, but higher level resistance is probaly best defined as starting at 81.30 - 81.50...

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