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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #3221 (permalink)
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-3

 
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I got my wish at a second shot at the short trade, and turned the day into a loser. CL came off later below the entry, but at 6 contracts on the 2nd attempt was enough to cause me to back off. End of day net -98.


CL has seemed very weak lately, and after the move down in all instrumenst from last night's open, I tended to vfavor the short side today. I did wait for resistance, did try to catch a retest, not that disappointed wiht my trade decision, but ES had CL tied to it and I was not paying attention to what it was telling me.

I saw the headlines this morning about the Spain, and it read into my plan for the day. Greece was somewhat old news, and I antidicated a continuation on the new.

Regardless, I was not listening to what the market was saying today, and it got me.

 
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On a more positive note though, I did get up and walk away until the next "day" which starts at 6pm. I ate, returned some phone calls, scanned some invoices, went to the gym.

It was the size of the move in CL, frlom 85.60 last night down to 82.04 this morning that had me thinking wait for a short trade. Price broke the pivot around 83.40, and when it returned to that area is where I became interested in a trade. I see that price is still inside of the double bottom area around 81, and that up made sense off support around 82...

Strange how in hindsight it is sometimes harder to justify the trade, that at the time seemed to make perfect sense. How to correct that, I don't know.

Another factor was the euro, it never did get back up today, and so as I tried to read CL and 6E together, 6E kept showing extreme weakness all the way into the close. That kept me from believing in the upside for any great run.

CL still seems to me to show relative weakness compared to the equity indices. Not sure if it is me that is off, or crude oil Feeling somewhat stubborn this evening, I am going for the latter. But that opinion is not a real moneymaker for me.

A final factor was the Greece elections and the reaction. The thought as of Friday was a relief rally would follow, and it did, but the way it did was not what I pictured. It gapped open very hard, and then fell like a brick. It was enough to convince me.

 
  #3224 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
On a more positive note though, I did get up and walk away until the next "day" which starts at 6pm. I ate, returned some phone calls, scanned some invoices, went to the gym.

It was the size of the move in CL, frlom 85.60 last night down to 82.04 this morning that had me thinking wait for a short trade. Price broke the pivot around 83.40, and when it returned to that area is where I became interested in a trade. I see that price is still inside of the double bottom area around 81, and that up made sense off support around 82...

Strange how in hindsight it is sometimes harder to justify the trade, that at the time seemed to make perfect sense. How to correct that, I don't know.

Another factor was the euro, it never did get back up today, and so as I tried to read CL and 6E together, 6E kept showing extreme weakness all the way into the close. That kept me from believing in the upside for any great run.

CL still seems to me to show relative weakness compared to the equity indices. Not sure if it is me that is off, or crude oil Feeling somewhat stubborn this evening, I am going for the latter. But that opinion is not a real moneymaker for me.

A final factor was the Greece elections and the reaction. The thought as of Friday was a relief rally would follow, and it did, but the way it did was not what I pictured. It gapped open very hard, and then fell like a brick. It was enough to convince me.

Tuesday & beyond my man!!

Chalk up today to a summer Monday that in the long run is just another day; productive day otherwise, eh?

peace

hedvig

p.s. Now my turn to go to the gym and do 'stuff!'

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CL looks like a mess on a 120 minute. I don't feel it is worthwhile to even attempt much analysis. High pivots and low pivots are what appears relevant. And volume.

82 and 86 are the magic numbers to me as CL sits. Not the extremes, but getting warm enough to pay attention.


Looking at that chart on futures.io (formerly BMT) instead of in real time adds a perspective to todays price action. How can price know what to do in the middle of this?

 
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Are news releases scheduled to provide support & resistance?

 
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Price came down today and took out the near prior pivots in the chart above. But it could have been a washout move to the quasi LSP

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But another reason I did not believe it was the volume relation. The first arrowed bar had motion and volume, The next arrown was ok, but not convincing, the 3rd arrow a weak breaout with a lot of motion on little volume, and the 4th increasing volume with price slowing.

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Back to the euro, when it could not get up it added to my belief in the short side today. And, CL had been notably weaker than the others in the past few days or weeks.

 
  #3228 (permalink)
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There are times I know things, other times I think I know things but am wrong, and times I know nothing. 2 out of 3 of those are good thoughts, the middle one not so much.

 
  #3229 (permalink)
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Price can be at 80 one day and 90 the next, but without context, how can you say that is high or low? It is typically in comparison the the most recent prior price.

Psychology is similar. Today's thoughts are in context with the most recent time periods.

 
  #3230 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
Are news releases scheduled to provide support & resistance?

------------
No, they are liquidity 'pushers'~~ because people

a) overtrade them
b) again; overtrade them because of a misguided 'fear of missing out.' Talking To an Impatient Trader | PopDoc Trader
c) gives the cronyist (is that a word) govt. something to do for 5 minutes of the week~~the rest of the time they are surfing porn and facebook and espn.com and probably awful political websites and such...

Don't go that way homie! And don't go 'round the corner looking for these insidious drug slingers providing a very-badly 'stepped' on product that really, no one has a need for.

: ) : )

peace

hedvig

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