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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets


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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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  #21 (permalink)
TraderJoe0410
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Posts: 23 since May 2011
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I was in @ 96.70 with a stop @ 96.51 of the days low and held it on until midnight.

Thanks for the analysis GaryD,


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  #22 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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It's Sunday night, doing my "homework" so I'll be prepared tomorrow morning. The issue with the pending debt ceiling makes me a little aprehensive about choosing long or short for a trade direction right now. Not that I believe in trading on fundamentals, but this is an event to be aware of.

The charts offer mixed signals right now as well, and that is a stronger factor in my current "wait and see" approach.

The trend on the daily chart is still up, and price set a tripple bottom on a lower timeframe (posted further down) which was right in line with an offset of the major trendline (shown below as a bold green line).




However, the left shoulder pivot mentioned previously did provide resistance, and a right shoulder pivot has now clearly formed just above the $100 area. That does not mean crude is going down, but it does mean that most likely a number of traders are placing, or have placed, bets that it could. Meanwhile, crude's dominant uptrend and local double bottom have probably a similarly significant number of traders believeing it is going up. So, what I am going to watch closely are the areas traders on both sides have most likely placed their stop losses. And, of course trend filters.




The chart below is a 93 minute. The bold green line at the bottom is the same as the bold green on the daily chart. Until that line breaks, we will expect that line to hold. The next line up is blue, and represents the area of a previous pivot just above the major trendline. Crude seems to like to respect these areas, and if it were to get in that range I would be watching for that to hold before it gets to the major trendline. But, before either of those would come into play, my main area of careful observation are the two zones marked by red arrows below and a green arrow above. (There is a gray arrow between the two reds, because those stops most likely blew already, but that area has provided strong support so far).

Scenario #1 - If Crude gets near that local double bottom area again, I am going to be watching for it to blow the stops that have most likely concentrated there, then hold just above the secondary trendline. Watch volume and wait for a reversal. Or, if it gets near, then can't blow those stops, and then reverses, same thing.

Scenario #2 - If, instead, crude gets near the horizontal green line at the most recent high pivot, then I will be watching volume around that area as well. Most likely some of the traders who are short have tightened their stops to that area, and if that area blows and/or holds, watch volume and watch trend. A high-volume stop in that area followed by a reversal will cause me to enter short.


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  #23 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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TraderJoe0410 View Post
I was in @ 96.70 with a stop @ 96.51 of the days low and held it on until midnight.

Thanks for the analysis GaryD,


I have not gone back to see when and where that was. Did you make some money? I hope so!

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  #24 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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Approaching the upper zone. Huge volume spike.


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  #25 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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Stops are now out of the way, selling volume has appeared around 98.60.


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  #26 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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Currently in long only mode on both the 9-range (shown) and the 6-range, but I am watching closely for a possible reversal. Notice the divergence on the Momentum/MACD.


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  #27 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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We have possible reversal on both the 9-range and the 6-range. Watching volume and the donchian channels.




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 GaryD 
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 GaryD 
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  #30 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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I closed this trade at 54 ticks, heavy volume came in on the 1 minute. I almost took the trade higher up when the trend reversal first occured. It met the conditions; Passed the area of stop losses above the market, selling volume showed up on hte 1 minute around 98.60, the trend reversal on 9 and 6 range.

But I was waiting for the Construction Spending, and never got a better entry chance afterwards. Still a decent trade. Had it not been a "countertrend" trade, I might have thought differently.


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