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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #2981 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Bias has a way of getting you in trouble.

Bias that is supported by your charts and/or indicators. Not freight-training. Bias believeing "it has to go back up" will kill you. Bias combined with waiting for it to show me something, at least in my current thought process, is something different.

If I traded on strictly a daily chart, "trend" for the day could be the complete opposite of if I traded strictly a 30 minute. That is more what I mean by bias.

Today I was way off base believeing the market would turn, but I only bought when it first met the criteria that I feel can lead to a turn. My "bias" caused me to miss some great short trades, but it did not cause me to necessarily fight the market. I guess I more meant to say that "bias with patience and confirmation" is something that I still believe in.

But, @tigertrader, @researcher247, and others, do provide some appreciated stimulation to question that belief. If I really knew what to believe, REALLY...I would trade full time today. I am pushing for that very hard, but still held back by the fact that it may always be nothing but the unknown, and so I try to make it more and more "known".

How is one to trade without believeing in themselves and their own experiences? Somewhere we choose a path to believe in, and then stay on it or take another. I have not found very clear directions as to which path to take, but I do learn to recognize the ones I have been on before, and those either attract me, or push me away. And that IS what I would think "experience" is. No?

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  #2982 (permalink)
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Big Mike, if I really KNEW anything I would be dangerous. lol! I struggle just to believe in what I believe in.

 
  #2983 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
How is a trader to distinguish when to believe in a low probability outcome? Are you simply saying, don't take profit targets, but constanly trail expecting an outlier to occur, let your stop get hit, and if it does not, stay in?

Or are you suggesting that there are times that favor the outliers, and that over time a trader will learn to differentiate? Or at least, should make it a goal to learn?


For starters make the market get you out, not your P&L, and yes you can and must learn when and when not to press, and add, to your trades. Its the key to the Kingdom.

To get an idea of what I am referring to, first read my post #1289 in ES SP500 Spoo-nalysis, where I saw the potential for such a scenario developing. And then read #1291 to date, and you can see that I recognized the possibility, that such an event was occurring, and how I traded it. I actually ended up with more on, than I had on initially, even though I took some profits along the way.

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  #2984 (permalink)
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When I see a reversal, one that I am familiar with seeing and calling a possible reversal, based on how I have elected to filter the market, and if that reversal occurs in a "zone" that I feel may offer the power to change direction, how am I to know if this...


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Means this...

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Or this...

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  #2985 (permalink)
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@researcher247, I am looking at 6E for a cycle you mentioned, but not really finding it. The depth of the gap fill was greater than I would have anticipated, but the market seems to have stopped dead in it's tracks at the local 786. Just curious your thoughts when you are around.

----------------
Please recall, MONTHLY & WEEKLY cycle lows is what I referred to.

These 2 cycle bottoms won't be found in Ninjatrader indicators. Quite esoteric.

No worries.

Nothing whatsoever to do with short-term trading.

I am buying all pullbacks on daily and 12 hour charts and adding to longs once price goes well into my favor (at more pullbacks).

It is a campaign trade for me and I expect a long bias for months.

I'll mark up some charts tomorrow.

peace

hedvig

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  #2986 (permalink)
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researcher247 View Post
----------------
Please recall, MONTHLY & WEEKLY cycle lows is what I referred to.

No worries.

Nothing whatsoever to do with short-term trading.

I am buying all pullbacks on daily and 12 hour charts and adding to longs once price goes well into my favor (at more pullbacks).

It is a campaign trade for me and I expect a long bias for months.

peace

hedvig


I posted a weekly chart somewhere, but not sure I get "cycles", other than time analysis from Robert Miner.

 
  #2987 (permalink)
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researcher247 View Post
----------------

These 2 cycle bottoms won't be found in Ninjatrader indicators. Quite esoteric.

Don't tell anyone, but you are talking with a guy whose mother was so into "esoteric" that I may or may not have;

1) meditated on a regular basis, 2) "rebirthed", 3) had more than one "healing crisis", 4) worn magnets and "pulsors" to correct my energy flow, 5) Worn these metal pyramids on my head to direct energy...

(Of course, I was under tha age of 10. Once I got a girlfriend I was too cool for that nonsense)

Esoteric is mild compared to my childhood. Speak to me brother!

 
  #2988 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
For starters make the market get you out, not your P&L, and yes you can and must learn when and when not to press, and add, to your trades. Its the key to the Kingdom.

To get an idea of what I am referring to, first read my post #1289 in ES SP500 Spoo-nalysis, where I saw the potential for such a scenario developing. And then read #1291 to date, and you can see that I recognized the possibility, that such an event was occurring, and how I traded it. I actually ended up with more on, than I had on initially, even though I took some profits along the way.

Thanks for that. Will do.

 
  #2989 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
For starters make the market get you out, not your P&L, and yes you can and must learn when and when not to press, and add, to your trades. Its the key to the Kingdom.

To get an idea of what I am referring to, first read my post #1289 in ES SP500 Spoo-nalysis, where I saw the potential for such a scenario developing. And then read #1291 to date, and you can see that I recognized the possibility, that such an event was occurring, and how I traded it. I actually ended up with more on, than I had on initially, even though I took some profits along the way.

https://futures.io/index-futures-trading/13452-es-s-p-500-futures-contract-sp500-spoo-nalysis-129.html#post229434

 
  #2990 (permalink)
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