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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #2911 (permalink)
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It's almost like we had a party here over the weekend.

 
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The major LSP on the weekly chart still commands attention, and the market held the line that theminor 786 on Friday. Having just possibly completing a minor 5WM down at around 81.20, and showing some strong support at the retest of that zone of 81.00-82.00, one possibility I am watching for is a higher timeframe ABC, with price being in the early stages of leg "C". The red zone above suggests a completion target for that move, if it were to manifest, and then presumes continuation to the downside by the red shading.


Meanwhile, the blue zone is watching for a W5 move from the higher time W4 minimum target hit on Friday.


Last edited by GaryD; June 10th, 2012 at 03:11 PM. Reason: ADD COMMENTARY
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Drilling down into a 30 minute chart, wave "A" may have consisted of a minor 5WM up (blue lines)

The zones of initial resistance against the potential Wc are roughly 84.50-85.00, and again at roughly 86.25. But the one that I kep coming back to right now is 87.80 - 88.40 for an upside target.

However, there is a high timeframe possible 5WM in progress, with the minumum target for W4 just being hit on Friday with near 100% APP precision, suggesting a downside target of 76.80-77.40.

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What I don't like about the W5 move being ready to roll, is the time cycle, and that currently has me leaning towards the ABC on the 30 to play out, as of this Sunday afternoon.


Last edited by GaryD; June 10th, 2012 at 03:16 PM.
 
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As is the fact that this LSP seems very obvious, although a distant memory to many.


Last edited by GaryD; June 10th, 2012 at 03:18 PM.
 
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Last edited by GaryD; June 10th, 2012 at 04:44 PM.
 
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Last edited by GaryD; June 10th, 2012 at 05:02 PM.
 
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June 9, 2012, 4:39 p.m. EDT

MADRID (MarketWatch) — Spain became the fourth euro-zone country to require international financial assistance on Saturday, as Finance Minister Luis de Guindos said the country will ask the European Union for as much as 100 billion euros ($125 billion) in loans to help its struggling banking sector.

Speaking to reporters Saturday evening following a teleconference call with euro-zone finance ministers earlier in the day, a visibly tense de Guindos said the loans were specifically aimed at the banking sector and not the wider economy.

 
  #2919 (permalink)
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@tigertrader

You've made some pointed and sometimes cryptic statements on my thread but lately your posts have become less cryptic. Or maybe I am more able to understand them now. This patience thing is becoming more and more a part of what I understand to be the most critical aspect of both waiting for set ups and waiting for targets. Now as patience plays a part in transaction costs, I have a question about these two and what you may consider to be the more appropriate long term strategy.

I have an example from yesterdays crude oil action. I have a method that gives me on average 1-1.5X risk reward. The reason for the 1.5 is its a dual position scale out method at predefined but dynamic targets. Most of the time, on my five min chart, I get a 2nd target projected that ends up at or near the top or bottom of swing. This means I can be out most of the time before a significant pull back on the 5M chart which means I can start looking for a new trade once that ones over. This seems to suit my personality in terms of being out before any real pull back occurs. One never knows if the swing you just took profit on is the last one correct? The pull back may end up being a trend reversal....who knows.

On the other hand, the risk reward ratio is just barely in line which demands at least a 50%+ win ratio. I accept that fact at the moment. I also understand this means my commissions are going to escalate as a percentage of net profit over time, especially as I scale up my position sizes.

I can use the same profit potential projection method to project 3-4X risk but this means pretty much 100% of the time I will be sitting through far more price action in terms of the up and down escalations of price as it works it way toward my profit areas and for a lot longer than I am used to. In addition, there is always those days where I may have gotten 1-2X profit and the 3-4X fail. So if I don't take profit at those nearer profit zones, a very real possibility of no profit at all exists at least on that trade.

Now the question....from a risk reward + transaction costs, would you advise a trader to look for 3-4X risk and win perhaps once a day vs look for 1-2X risk and win 3-4 a day accepting the higher potential of being wrong 3-4 times a day and the higher commission costs associated with more frequent trades?

In other words, more advisable to take the smaller profit targets with the higher probability of them actually being filled, or scratch a bit more and look for 3-4X risk per trade?

Here is my chart and I annotated it and wrote this post over the course of the afternoon with lots of interruptions from my kid so if anything seems unclear or disjointed, please ask for clarification.

Thanks....and with apologies to @GaryD for hijacking his thread with my own selfish interests......

Brian
]


Most traders focus on the few outcomes that appear more probable, and ignore the low-probability scenarios. Since most small to moderate profits tend to vanish, the market teaches you to cash them in before they turn into scratches or losers. Of course, if you bring normal human habits and tendencies to trading, you'll gravitate toward the majority and inevitably lose. So, the simple answer, would be the latter example. Of course, nothing is ever that easy, nor that black and white; always that hackneyed shade of grey and there ar a myriad of other factors that need to be considered.

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--------------
Shh!!!

I'll let you in on a secret if you don't tell anyone. But 6E on pullbacks for a multi-week and MULTI-MONTH ADVANCE {yep; not a typo}.

Bias is long so target better reward to risk on your long entries and--hey, your OKAY!

Why? My cycle work (extremely accurate on weekly and monthly 'cycles') showed a MONTHLY cycle low for JUNE (right on time) and then subsequent and in addition to that, my work showed a WEEKLY cycle low shortly thereafter.

This crazy-ass currency is a buy for at least 3 months.

I'll post some charts (if I get a chance) sometime on Monday or Tuesday. Still busy as I expect CL to have another downmove of several dollars+ and GC to continue to shake out 'week' longs as it continues to advance up on DEEP retraces off the last bottom.

Well, time to make the donuts!

'trade what you see'

peace

hedvig

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