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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
The major LSP on the weekly chart still commands attention, and the market held the line that theminor 786 on Friday. Having just possibly completing a minor 5WM down at around 81.20, and showing some strong support at the retest of that zone of 81.00-82.00, one possibility I am watching for is a higher timeframe ABC, with price being in the early stages of leg "C". The red zone above suggests a completion target for that move, if it were to manifest, and then presumes continuation to the downside by the red shading.
Meanwhile, the blue zone is watching for a W5 move from the higher time W4 minimum target hit on Friday.
Drilling down into a 30 minute chart, wave "A" may have consisted of a minor 5WM up (blue lines)
The zones of initial resistance against the potential Wc are roughly 84.50-85.00, and again at roughly 86.25. But the one that I kep coming back to right now is 87.80 - 88.40 for an upside target.
However, there is a high timeframe possible 5WM in progress, with the minumum target for W4 just being hit on Friday with near 100% APP precision, suggesting a downside target of 76.80-77.40.
What I don't like about the W5 move being ready to roll, is the time cycle, and that currently has me leaning towards the ABC on the 30 to play out, as of this Sunday afternoon.
MADRID (MarketWatch) — Spain became the fourth euro-zone country to require international financial assistance on Saturday, as Finance Minister Luis de Guindos said the country will ask the European Union for as much as 100 billion euros ($125 billion) in loans to help its struggling banking sector.
Speaking to reporters Saturday evening following a teleconference call with euro-zone finance ministers earlier in the day, a visibly tense de Guindos said the loans were specifically aimed at the banking sector and not the wider economy.
Most traders focus on the few outcomes that appear more probable, and ignore the low-probability scenarios. Since most small to moderate profits tend to vanish, the market teaches you to cash them in before they turn into scratches or losers. Of course, if you bring normal human habits and tendencies to trading, you'll gravitate toward the majority and inevitably lose. So, the simple answer, would be the latter example. Of course, nothing is ever that easy, nor that black and white; always that hackneyed shade of grey and there ar a myriad of other factors that need to be considered.
I'll let you in on a secret if you don't tell anyone. But 6E on pullbacks for a multi-week and MULTI-MONTH ADVANCE {yep; not a typo}.
Bias is long so target better reward to risk on your long entries and--hey, your OKAY!
Why? My cycle work (extremely accurate on weekly and monthly 'cycles') showed a MONTHLY cycle low for JUNE (right on time) and then subsequent and in addition to that, my work showed a WEEKLY cycle low shortly thereafter.
This crazy-ass currency is a buy for at least 3 months.
I'll post some charts (if I get a chance) sometime on Monday or Tuesday. Still busy as I expect CL to have another downmove of several dollars+ and GC to continue to shake out 'week' longs as it continues to advance up on DEEP retraces off the last bottom.
