Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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I really hope it helps. Sometimes I wonder if anyone reading my comments would be influenced to react differently just based on the doubt I might place in their otherwise winning strategy. Traders are highly impressionable, particaulary when they are new or struggling. They chase news, put undue faith in indicators, follow hot tips, etc. If something I post helps you, that is a great bonus for me!
Some days I really don't have a clue. Today was one of them. or rather, the market told me I was wrong, and I decided to listen and let go of the mouse.
But more often I do have some clue, more a belief than anything. One of the biggest changing factors in my trading was when I just started believing in something, instead of being shaken by every little move.
The reason I spend so much time after the close or before the open looking at charts, drawing on them, etc, is to have a plan. Naturally, no one really has any exact certainty about market direction. But, it only goes up or down. So, statistically, where might it be going? Where might it change direction? How would you know if it was changing? Where might it go if it does change? I answer those, wait for my area, watch for confirmation, take a side, and then breathe. lol.
Thanks for the support.
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As crazy as it may seem after today's move, until crude can break above the confluence zone shown below on the daily chart, I am looking for a short trade. The zone consists of;
1) two prior major low pivots, now acting as resistance (red arrows and cyan line)
2) 618 retracement of prior wave 5 (gold 618)
3) 382 retracement of the entire 5-wave move down
4)127% extension of wave "B" (center pink wave) Note: I may be bending the rules some with this additional leg, but so far the waves are overlapping, and crude never made it to the preferred target for waht I thought was the end of wave C.
5) Higher degree trendline (shown as downward angled red line)
6) the 100% APP of wave A (purple line) at 92.65
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Crude blew a lot of stops today, climaxing just before the electronic close with a huge burst above the prior wave C top. Are there more buyers out there thinking crude has nowhere to go but up? Or will there be sellers that were hoping to get this oppportunity? Tomorrow may provide the confirmation. Jobless claims and/or the EIA, either could be more than enough to allow crude to show it's hand.
Last edited by GaryD; September 7th, 2011 at 09:27 PM.
Reason: add APP of WA
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I keep in the back of my mind that yesterday was explosive to the upside, so a turn could be tough to get started. And, as I said yesterday, resistence could be all the way up above 92.
