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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
Unfortunately yes, I still use NT as MTP is on NT. Ensign is "Steve McQueen" cool. And I have yet to crash Ensign, ever. If NT is the Ford of charting, Ensign is BMW (or the iconic Honda under Soichiro).....Not only is it cool and stable and small, but its elegant.
As if I have to say it, the bike, not the girl
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
First line resistance for CL should be found around 85.30 - 85.80, although it could take an overlapping path to get there, if it does. But I am anticipating a break above the high overnight.
CL has had a long ride down, and there are certainly decent confluence areas at 88.00-88.35, and again at 89.25 - 89.85
But the more interesting zone to me tonight is the 86.40 line. If CL just completed an intermediate 5WM down, that move may also serve as W3 on the higher view, with a minumum completion target for a W4 on the higher degree of 86.40. The current APP of an ABC, assuming B has formed of course, is 86.99, but that seem like it would get less attantion for some reason, IF we see a downside continuation on a larger scale in the days or weeks to come.
I have developed a random line in my 6-range CL chart that will not go away. It says "78.60% (84.31)" in a spring green color, but I have removed all drqwing objects, and also have Global Draw objects set to "false" on all charts. I can see around it, but just curious if anyone has any ideas what is causing that? I would prefer to remove it if it will go away.
3 trading days into my gig at the Mariott Trade Desk, and up net $2,070. 62% wins, missing my mark. 1.45 profit factor, also falling short. But as I sat downstairs eating my fruit and hummus dinner (only day 2 of cleanse), I was thinking to myself, $2k up, in my spare time, in a hotel room.
The amount is tiny, the performance mediocre, but a shift in thought occured, if only for the duration of my skimpy meal.
I learned to trade to the point where I was nearly unbeatable with one or two contracts. 30 days straight, more than once or twice, of solid profitable days. I HAD traded as if my life depended on it, but then I took that experience and started trading as if I did not care. And so, being in the action was not that important. I would get in if it looked like I was most likely going to win, and that win was 35-65 ticks.
Then, I changed a few things;
1) I wanted to go for longer and longer moves.
2) I wanted to step up in size so I could make more money and make up for some bad losses in other places.
3) I wanted to move to trading full time.
All of those things changed the dynamics, altered the perception.
Succesful trading is such a delicate balance. Particularly short term trading. Get it just right, and don't mess with it. Not necessarily the method as much as the mindset. And that is an interesting thing to manage.
So, here in the hotel room, benefit of a large TV that has a VGA in, I set up my trade screens with far less importance than the trading command center I just recently created when we wmoved into the new/old house. And while the amount is wimpy by some measurements, I am just winging it, having fun, not comcerned about goal really (I think about it, but it does not convince me to do something that does not feel right).
And what I saw tonight is that, if I do not have to trade well, I hesitate to say this... I almost never have a losing day. If I don't care at all, my win % increases. If I don't think about needing to make money, my avg win to avg loss increases dramatically.
I found trading when I was in a very bad place in my life. And it cost me. I bled money profusely for awhile. And I finally got to where I did not care. And I started to make money.
I found nexusfi.com (formerly BMT) when I was beginning to find trading more of a curiosity than a money machine, and was so caught up in the moment of realizing trading did not have to be that difficult.
And then I started to wonder, why don;t I do this for more money? Why don't I make up for past losses? Why don't I dig myself out of a hole I was in from real estate, by trading? I was kicking ass, 1 contract at a time...
The "backtest myself" was on target, and I learned so much by forgetting about the math and thinking more about who is holding the mouse, and how does that person tick. But I missed one critical indicator; Motivation. WHY do I trade?
Believing is a key ingredient, but the need to believe is something entirely different...
As I type this, my "anticipate CL to break the high" or however I said it, just happened. Of course it did.
"Don't they see that it is going __?" Or however I posted it.
Boring is the most fitting word I can imagine. Profit or loss... volume was at the very low end of the last 20 trading days, range was okay, but the market was being manipulated in ways that one can only be observed by watching the tape the whole day. It was not well behaved, and it was not convincing, this move up. Profits could be made, and I had pretty good risk-adjusted returns, even shorting, though I could have done better.
"Why would a fool short on a day like today?" one might ask, looking at a stale, static, lifeless chart at the end of the day. It could be any number of things: inexperience, general foolishness, or maybe I'm just way early. I am not from "always buy if the market is above the 20ema" (or insert some other criteria here) school. Maybe one day I'll come to the conclusion that this is the most wise school to be in. But the bottom line is, the market was not a convincing buy all day long for me, except at the open, when I did buy and had a pretty good trade, and around lunch when I was closing out shorts and thus not prepared to switch to long mode yet. I am also not from the "patterns and geometry" school though I do respect the validity of those who use these methods. Your pesavento chart looks like gibberish to me, but it's only because I am not trained in this, nor do I wish to be. This type of analysis imposes a structure on the market which I believe the market has no interest in adhering to, and thus I believe has no logical basis. I cannot trade this way and will never be good at this kind of thing, because I do not believe in it. And at the end of the day, isn't belief in our own ability really the most important factor for any method of trading, for without belief, we will not execute?
Hedvig, I doubt I used that word more than a couple times in my life, and now, I may have it tattooed.
prophecy.