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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #271 (permalink)
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ES FINALLY found the strength.

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And here is the corresponding CL short covering rally I mentioned possibly occuring this afternoon.

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  #272 (permalink)
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Crude and the ES finally made their move. Now what?

CL is at a major zone at this moment. IF it is going to turn down andmaintain the downtrend, this would be a great place for it to turn. Again, low volume time of day, so I am going to pass, but something to watch. The zone is roughly 86.50-86.80.

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On the 9-range, which seems to work best for me on divergence, crude may be losing some steam.

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Last edited by GaryD; September 7th, 2011 at 01:09 AM.
 
  #273 (permalink)
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droid17 View Post
Hi Gary,

I was going to PM you this, but I didn't have 5 posts and didn't want to post just to post. I am sorry in advance if this needs to be moved.

I stumbled across this discussion board and this thread "Catching Big Waves". I was impressed with your self evaluation, the ability to see your mistakes, and adjust accordingly. I am also very impressed with your results.

I recently have taken big loses (in options) and I feel that my problem was not having a clear enough plan and sticking to it. I chased some loses, didn't take profits when I should of and tried to force some trades "to get even".

I am looking to switch to commodities and I am starting to write out a trading plan this time and I am going to stick with it. I need some guidance on how you started what sources to you use to develope your plan. How did you come up with your entry and exit criteria for both profits and losses. While searching it seems that I am getting lost in the sea and I need some direction.

Sorry for all the questions, but it seemed like you have it together, don't have a bad ego, and are humble. Let me know if you can send me on the right path, or feel free to tell me to get lost

Thanks,

Andrew


If you are going to trade succesfully, most likely you will do it by submission

If I can do it, you can do it. But, the way I did it is not really something I can explain entirely by hard rules of profit targets and stop losses. You must have rules, and you must UNDERSTAND those rules. But for me those rules are not so much about systematic operations or mathematical ratios of profit to loss.

Rule #1, let your winners run and keep your losers small.
Rule #2, know when you have a better chance at that


Commodities are tough. Violent until you get used to them. I trade 99.9% crude oil (took one ES trade a week ago when it just begged) and love the motion of it, but when I first started, crude scared me (as did gold, the euro, ES, TF, YM, NQ, 6B, 6A, silver, corn, soybeans...). Being afraid is a hard way to succeed. I had to lose fear before I started to turn things around.

For the sake of making this beneficial to anyone, I'm going to ask some general questions here.

1) Why do you want to trade? I'm not looking for the obvious "to make money". Why trading? Why not another direction? This will be as hard as preparing for the olympics, and there is no guaranty of gold. What if your only claim to fame was that you were in the competition? Is that ok?

2) Can you trade every day, or do you only have part time? Can you watch it from open to close 5 days a week? Could you stand to do that without taking a position? Could you do that for 3 months? 1 year?

3) How much are you willing to pay for your education? Not to me, but to the market? I doubt anyone gets in for free, and the cost of tuition could be more than you expect. (Mine was in the 6 figure range).

You can respond here, but may prefer to do so by PM. Or, PM me your email, or even skype. Maybe showing you my screen in real time on a skype call some day would be a great way to discuss certain things? Never thought about it until now...

I can point you in the right direction, but your greatest challenge will be you. On the bright side, truly understand that and you're halfway there. Hang in there, learn to relax. Markets only go up or down, weird how tough we can make that.

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  #274 (permalink)
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Crude's afternoon rally was way beyond what I would have expected, and the drive continues. CL is now at the 618 retracement of the prior down move. Reversals are common in the mornings in crude, and I am watching for a confirmation of a short trade in this area, or a pullback to a major support level for a long.

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From a more distant perspective, we are approaching a point of conflicting trendlines. Watch closely to see which wins.

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I don't take any trade without volume confirmation. Volume moves the market, and waiting for it increases the odds for me. Volume is light. CL has a minor DT at the 618, and has given reversal confirmation on the 6 ramge, but I don't see the volume I am looking for. I would like to be short, but can't...

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Last edited by GaryD; September 7th, 2011 at 09:56 AM.
 
  #275 (permalink)
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There is a start... patience, wait for a new reversal now...


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  #276 (permalink)
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I don't think you have a clue.

by that I mean you don't know how much value you present every day. your analysis are spot on. your method is excellent. not to mention you sharing your great knowledge.

thank you very much for your contributions. I know you trade CL, but I really like your take on ES as well.

thanks again and good luck trading.


Last edited by Silvester17; September 7th, 2011 at 11:44 AM.
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  #277 (permalink)
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  #278 (permalink)
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EDIT 8:02pm - going back through the day's trades, this is one that can be frustrating. I forget how far this one went before turning against me and causing me to close before it hit my stop, taking a 19 tick loss.

Going for larger targets has proven to be a better path for me overall, but many times that means turning a trade that was in your favor into a losing trade. I had a second loss today as weel, similar event. Today crude did not want to go anywhere but up, but because several indicators I use stayed in the overbought range, and I was not looking to scalp, my trade watch was on a sizeable reversal, and then AFTER that, possibly a long entry.

This is where many traders struggle, myself included. If you are going to be consistent, you must have rules. My rule about not taking directions that are already overbought or oversold cost me today.

I believed yesterday afternoon that crude was going to rally, but never expected it to go as far and with as much force as it did. Just before 5pm EST, it actually made it above the previous wave C high pivot, blowing about 3000 contracts in a 50 cent +/- move in 2 seconds.

And yet, all day I was sitting watching for a reversal opportunity...

Had I been long-biased today, for whatever reason (and there were plenty of arguments for it), it could have been a fantastic day. But, I did follow my rules, and will do it again. Based on today, or any other day where my trading is off, I may possibly add or change a rule
, and that is part of learning. But, so far in my review of the day, markets don't often make such linear moves, and my target is to find turning points so that my profit target can be larger. I have not found that buying an overbought market provides that opportunity as solidly and frequently as selling one. At least, not from my current experience. But, today is one to note...

Possible changes to my rules could be, for example;

1) Changing my OB/OS timeframe to a higher one. (Currently I give the most weight to a 93 minute).
2) Reducng my profit target and scalping with the flow on "impulse" days like today.

For now, I am keeping the rules as they are, but I am always aware of their performance. I'm going to look at a moving average on my RSI, or some other variable, but my initial thought is to leave it alone. Too much information can be as bad as not enough.

Today was my first "down" day in over a month, and my loss was about equal to the previous day's gain, so what have I lost? In my mind, nothing. Maybe some pride, but no where near as much of that as I would have lost a year ago.

I have read about some of my trading idols saying they always consider closed trade wins "their" money, and they fight to protect that. For me, roughly 3 days ago is my mental line in the sand. But, losing days will come and I don't get that concerned about it unless I have 2-3 in a row, or even in a week. That is when it is time to take a break, go to sim, re-eveluate, etc.

To me, getting upset about a losing day sets me up for more trouble ahead. Taking trades just to get back to zero, or staring at the market trying to find a place to get your money back just "because", or feeling like you need to have a win before the market closes for the day, or not wanting to feel like you gave up; those actions are pure poison. "STAY SAFE"


Last edited by GaryD; September 7th, 2011 at 09:36 PM. Reason: commentary after the close
 
  #279 (permalink)
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closed at -19 ticks

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  #280 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
If you are going to trade succesfully, most likely you will do it by submission

If I can do it, you can do it. But, the way I did it is not really something I can explain entirely by hard rules of profit targets and stop losses. You must have rules, and you must UNDERSTAND those rules. But for me those rules are not so much about systematic operations or mathematical ratios of profit to loss.

Rule #1, let your winners run and keep your losers small.
Rule #2, know when you have a better chance at that


Commodities are tough. Violent until you get used to them. I trade 99.9% crude oil (took one ES trade a week ago when it just begged) and love the motion of it, but when I first started, crude scared me (as did gold, the euro, ES, TF, YM, NQ, 6B, 6A, silver, corn, soybeans...). Being afraid is a hard way to succeed. I had to lose fear before I started to turn things around.

For the sake of making this beneficial to anyone, I'm going to ask some general questions here.

1) Why do you want to trade? I'm not looking for the obvious "to make money". Why trading? Why not another direction? This will be as hard as preparing for the olympics, and there is no guaranty of gold. What if your only claim to fame was that you were in the competition? Is that ok?

2) Can you trade every day, or do you only have part time? Can you watch it from open to close 5 days a week? Could you stand to do that without taking a position? Could you do that for 3 months? 1 year?

3) How much are you willing to pay for your education? Not to me, but to the market? I doubt anyone gets in for free, and the cost of tuition could be more than you expect. (Mine was in the 6 figure range).

You can respond here, but may prefer to do so by PM. Or, PM me your email, or even skype. Maybe showing you my screen in real time on a skype call some day would be a great way to discuss certain things? Never thought about it until now...

I can point you in the right direction, but your greatest challenge will be you. On the bright side, truly understand that and you're halfway there. Hang in there, learn to relax. Markets only go up or down, weird how tough we can make that.

Thanks Gary! I'll PM you


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