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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #2681 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post

Tis why, I like what PandaW does, trying to strip away everything, a maniacal drive to minimalism. He does it better than me.

I highly doubt that.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
 
  #2682 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
@researcher247 nailed me this week. "Fucking ponderous". I am bound by my preference of the known. I trade in a manner that allows me to believe in probability, while desiring to commit myself further to the lesser known. @greenr asked why not get 10 ticks? Beacuuse it really is not about the money. It is about proving something to myself. It is about going headfirst into what I believe, not what I know. It is about returning to the person I once was, not in terms of money as much in terms of a belief in abundance and a confidene in the face of who know what.

I am typing ever so slowly, tiny little phone keyboard, at a bar in just one more strange town, walked here in the rain. And have nothing I would rather do than become myself, again. So I keep coming back here, telling myself what to do to get there.

I trade very well. My confidence is shattered from things not related to trading. I have another shot at things, and do not wnt to fuck it up. So I trade like I am scared. Every day. And I watch this over and over, and wonder why I don't just go with it, as I said to @Deucalion? Because, I can't be wrong again. And the pressure that brings nearly kills me. At a minimum, it castrates me.

@GaryD

Your Journal here started in July of last year.
Not that it's any of my business but I was wondering if you have ever sat down for a few days at the least,
without making any further posts,
without making any further trades,
without even your charts open,
and re-read through it ?

Just a thought

wishing you well

shalom

Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile...

Last edited by zt379; June 1st, 2012 at 11:05 PM.
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  #2683 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
Oh man, I feel your pain...I have thought those same thoughts over and over again....I will say this though, I thought it wasn't about the money, but it is in some respect....to be completely honest, we look ourselves in the eye every morning and we are defined by our success or failure as much as we strive not to be. And like it or not, success is very much measured by money.....its a way of keeping score.

I know this much after two hard years of struggle....I will never be the same person every again....in fact, I don't want to be that person again. I am less arrogant, more patient, more thankful, more generous than before I lost so much money in the real estate business. I thought I deserved the success I was having...and the truth is, no one deserves anything, its a result of choices and timing, just like in trading. Do it right and make money, do it wrong and lose it.....

You and I will never win trading not to lose. Trading scared means trading defeated before you even start. In this business as in any, you need a winning attitude before you win. You can't depend on winning to develop the winning mindset. However, small wins early develop confidence or can rebuild confidence if its been lost and confidence leads to better and bigger wins. You know how to win with smaller size. In the beginning of this thread, you were killing it....then you started experimenting, trying to be something you weren't. Sure recipe for failure. You are trading conflicted and that will always self destruct.

Take some time and become comfortable with who you are as a trader. If you are a scalper, scalp the hell out of it....then scale up size. Its totally doable. I promise you, if you can trade 1 and 2 lots successfully as a scalper or at least looking for 30-60 ticks a trade, you can do it with 5-10 lots and even more......If a swing trader, stop thinking like a scalper and be a swing trader....but for the sake of your sanity and your financial future, decide....then attack.

I remember a post where you had done a study on the average size of swings and the probability of a certain number of ticks being obtained on any given trade. Seems like the sweet spot was 30-45 ticks....this is something you can nail day in and day out....10 ticks sounds nice in terms of taking home some money every day, but you know you can find enough good trades to average 30-45 ticks every single day.....and with 5-10 lots, you're making some nice money...its not F*&K you money, but's its still really nice....I mean 30 ticks x 5 lots is $1500 a day...200 trading days is $300K...10 lots, 600K....a nice living to be sure....and if you scale it up from there, the skys the limit....

Keep it simple, keep it consistent, don't let others influence who you are and what you know you can do....and scale up in measured, methodical steps.....

Cheers.....



This may get weird.

Using today as an example, which was not a strong day for me;

I missed the early down move, coming off the China PMI at 10:30PM EST, but not taking hold until the European open around 3AM, which was decidedly down by around 7am this morning.

It had approached the 84 area, 84.50 maybe, around some major 786, plus an exhaustion fib, plus some extention, plaus some veriosn of an LSP even, I can't recall. 84 I have had on radar for weeks now. A psychological deficiency from that standpoint, in that I had a hard time believeing it was not possibly oversold, whatever that means.

I had no idea how far it might go down, but did not feel we were at the optimum place to find out.

Then, it turned up, and I told myself this could be a strong retracement, wait to see. Because of the violence of the move down. But, at the same time did not want to buy this market, it had seemed so sincere about the move down, so short was what I wanted. Well, you can't short a severely over sold market, and I sure as hell am not touching one about to drive everyone out before they become wrong again...

So I waited, trying to feel every tick, as it ran up, waited for it to wear itself out, exhaust whoever was doing whatever... and then it seemed to stall, as a juggler's ball at the crest, paused, maybe. Small pullback, before the US stock open, maybe 9am? But, damn Euro still freaking to the upside to some degree, but at that point may have been in it's first good pullback. Wherever it was, I knew I had to wait for that to subside to get the best chance.

Volume was really no clue today, but order flow was. T&S was the first significant hint of the top of the retracement today. Not that accurate though, definatley ranks lower than a volume bar.

Price was also at, from memory, a 386 on a higher time frame, was is 84.50? I con't see charts right now. T&S hit was followed by a small pullback, then started up again, maybe 38?

Bam, heavy hit to the T&S again. Sell ready.

Backdrop: we had a raging move down prior to the move up, and price was certainly just below a higly visible resistance point. AND, had tested it already.

The US stock open was about to happen, and in that moment, weren't the odds favoring it would open down?

I am serious. At that moment, if you had to guess...



So, I hit the retest, going short. I still am thinking 38, wherever it was the heat was basically nothing, but I am onnly a laptop and it is hard enough to just journal, much less look at the charts right now.

But anyway,

THERE! Is what I thought. Short.

But one fucking contract. Then add. OK 2 contracts, let's go two. In two. Feeling like I might have nailed it today. Then I received a text message...

"Beep" sounds so much more innocent when you are not in a trade.

If I take a call, or have to answer the door, or my wife walks in and needs something. I go flat. Period. And, here's where it gets me.

In my belief, there are many places to take a "good" trade every single day. But there are usually only one or two "best" places. If that best place sets up, and it is not 4am, or any other time I am not sure of, for arguement let's say I could pick 10:10AM....

IF...

I hit that for the day, and then am required to drop it, for whatever reason...ALL TRADES FOLLOWING PALE IN COMPARISON FOR THAT DAY.


Stole my mojo.

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  #2684 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
Oh man, I feel your pain...I have thought those same thoughts over and over again....I will say this though, I thought it wasn't about the money, but it is in some respect....to be completely honest, we look ourselves in the eye every morning and we are defined by our success or failure as much as we strive not to be. And like it or not, success is very much measured by money.....its a way of keeping score.

I know this much after two hard years of struggle....I will never be the same person every again....in fact, I don't want to be that person again. I am less arrogant, more patient, more thankful, more generous than before I lost so much money in the real estate business. I thought I deserved the success I was having...and the truth is, no one deserves anything, its a result of choices and timing, just like in trading. Do it right and make money, do it wrong and lose it.....

You and I will never win trading not to lose. Trading scared means trading defeated before you even start. In this business as in any, you need a winning attitude before you win. You can't depend on winning to develop the winning mindset. However, small wins early develop confidence or can rebuild confidence if its been lost and confidence leads to better and bigger wins. You know how to win with smaller size. In the beginning of this thread, you were killing it....then you started experimenting, trying to be something you weren't. Sure recipe for failure. You are trading conflicted and that will always self destruct.

Take some time and become comfortable with who you are as a trader. If you are a scalper, scalp the hell out of it....then scale up size. Its totally doable. I promise you, if you can trade 1 and 2 lots successfully as a scalper or at least looking for 30-60 ticks a trade, you can do it with 5-10 lots and even more......If a swing trader, stop thinking like a scalper and be a swing trader....but for the sake of your sanity and your financial future, decide....then attack.

I remember a post where you had done a study on the average size of swings and the probability of a certain number of ticks being obtained on any given trade. Seems like the sweet spot was 30-45 ticks....this is something you can nail day in and day out....10 ticks sounds nice in terms of taking home some money every day, but you know you can find enough good trades to average 30-45 ticks every single day.....and with 5-10 lots, you're making some nice money...its not F*&K you money, but's its still really nice....I mean 30 ticks x 5 lots is $1500 a day...200 trading days is $300K...10 lots, 600K....a nice living to be sure....and if you scale it up from there, the skys the limit....

Keep it simple, keep it consistent, don't let others influence who you are and what you know you can do....and scale up in measured, methodical steps.....

Cheers.....

And now the more relevant version.



"I know this much after two hard years of struggle....I will never be the same person every again....in fact, I don't want to be that person again. I am less arrogant, more patient, more thankful, more generous than before I lost so much money in the real estate business. I thought I deserved the success I was having...and the truth is, no one deserves anything, its a result of choices and timing, just like in trading. Do it right and make money, do it wrong and lose it....."



I know those things too. But tell me that you don't feel regret for having lost touch with that person who believes in anything?

Raw courage, relentless optimism, belief in any obstaclce can be oversome if you work hard enough.

Fresh.



"You and I will never win trading not to lose. Trading scared means trading defeated before you even start. In this business as in any, you need a winning attitude before you win. You can't depend on winning to develop the winning mindset. However, small wins early develop confidence or can rebuild confidence if its been lost and confidence leads to better and bigger wins. You know how to win with smaller size. In the beginning of this thread, you were killing it....then you started experimenting, trying to be something you weren't. Sure recipe for failure. You are trading conflicted and that will always self destruct."



I am not scared to trade. I am scared of what I want out of trading. I could trade hundreds of contracts. I fret over 2. I am scared to get beyond $1000.00, because it touches a different part of me. And my trade management falls to the side.

That part is fear. Fear of a trader I previously was. I do not even know if that trader is still in me. I know it was 5 years ago. And that trader caused me more damage that good.


So I wanted to let go of fear, meanwhile a famous trader says stay frightened...


I could trade one contract forever. Two required me to push. Now four interests me some, I am clawing my way out and testing the waters some. I am gaining confidence with a tiny bit more size.


As I said when I started, I wanted to help other while helping myself. I am on probation, trying to help other traders who are maybe under me, or paralell to me, trade better, by offereing what I have found works for me. I focus, I say the right things, I set good examples. I am a good student of myself even.

I do not want money. No one would believe me, but really, that would be too easy.

I want to find myself, which means, where is that person who was not afraid of loss?

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  #2685 (permalink)
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So, the picture is slightly skewed. The wrong dream.

 
  #2686 (permalink)
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All I can offer is a view of my own struggles.

This week presented enormous opportunities with the SP500. I caught myself a few times really pressing hard, trading bigger than I normally would, because I knew the opportunity presented over the last few days was somewhat rare.

But I also could immediately feel the pressure, and in the end I don't think I benefited from trading larger. The reason being: twice I ended up exiting my position prematurely, afraid to hold to my desired target. This was because the money was affecting my decision.

All I can say is that it is a long journey and constant struggle.

I used to think why successful traders didn't simply "add a zero". This a phrase I used to routinely use when talking to friends about trading. Why only 10 contracts? Why not add a zero, and make it 100? I mean you are profitable, why not make bank?

Over the years I am trading bigger and bigger size. And I am doing it comfortably. But there is no rushing it. I reminded myself of this just this week, by pressing with larger size than I am used to trading.

Bottom line, for me at least, is that you simply cannot force it. You have to be patient and give it time. Over time you will have the confidence you need and trading an extra contract here, an extra contract there, will eventually turn in to the new norm. Then more time passes, and you've found you are now trading twice the size you were previously used to. And so on.

Mike

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  #2687 (permalink)
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meanwhile...

I see that I trade pretty good. And it frustrates me to no end that I will not set myself free again. Free, but as the trader I know today. The one who is transparent, and respects risk, and undertsnad the market somewhat, and has fear, and calculates out advantages and plans in small steps.

I am bound. I chose the probable and repeatable. Can I make a 25 tick trade? Most likely. If I follow SR areas, and trend signals? That could help, yes. can I get hurt with one contract? Not very likely. I choose things that are pretty much a given. Ponderousness, a word that I might have just made up, is what my disease is now.

The issue for not getting hurt lies more in the risk, not the reward.

But, I have taught myself a bad habit that wins, "scalping", and so that is less ponderous. Time of hold helps a ton too. But, scalping with higher dollars seems foolish.

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  #2688 (permalink)
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I wanted to add one more thing.

When I trade normal size, it just comes natural. I don't give it a second thought. It is no big deal. Win, lose, who cares. It makes no difference to me whether an individual trade is a winner or loser when I am trading my normal size, because I have basically removed the importance of money.

How many times have you gone 150+ mph down a freeway? Highly illegal, but I've done it a few times (when I was younger). Your leg starts shaking uncontrollably due to the adrenaline and fear.

But if you were a race car driver used to going 200 mph on a regular basis, that would not happen. For the race car driver to experience a similar feeling, he would have to up the stakes considerably.

The same is true of trading. The trick is to find your comfort zone and trade the hell out of it. With success comes confidence, and you can slowly go faster and faster.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

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  #2689 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
All I can offer is a view of my own struggles.

This week presented enormous opportunities with the SP500. I caught myself a few times really pressing hard, trading bigger than I normally would, because I knew the opportunity presented over the last few days was somewhat rare.

But I also could immediately feel the pressure, and in the end I don't think I benefited from trading larger. The reason being: twice I ended up exiting my position prematurely, afraid to hold to my desired target. This was because the money was affecting my decision.

That was great Mike.

 
  #2690 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
That was great Mike.

I like your new user title: "Oil whisperer"



Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

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