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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #2561 (permalink)
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Time to bet on the euro - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch



Interesting timing


I really do not understand the euro enough to trade it, but have watched it daily for roughly 3 years. The pattern today I could not name, but it looked like a blowout was coming. Buy it in the face of the headlines seems like madness, but I like the thinking of Mark Hulbert on this controversial topic.


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Last edited by GaryD; May 29th, 2012 at 08:25 PM.
 
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To ignite that fire would require some news...

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May 29, 2012, 6:34 p.m. EDT

ECB rejects Spain’s Bankia recap plan: FT
By Wallace Witkowski, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Spain will have to come up with another plan to recapitalize Bankia SA after the European Central Bank reportedly torpedoed a proposal to use government debt.

The ECB said Spain’s plan to use 19 billion euros ($24 billion) in sovereign bonds to recapitalize the bank was in danger of violating a ban forbidding the central bank to finance governments, the Financial Times reported in its online edition late Tuesday, citing European officials.

Spain nationalized Bankia (STN:ES:BKIA) , its third-largest bank, in early May. Under a proposal, Spain planned sink billions of euros in its bonds into the ailing bank with an eye to swapping them out for cash at the ECB’s three-month refinancing window. Such a plan would have allowed the country to sidestep having to raise the money in the bond markets.

On Tuesday, the yield on the 10-year Spanish bond (ICAPSD:ES:10YR_ESP) climbed as high as 6.49%.

Bankia shares closed down more than 16% Tuesday, after a 13% rout on Monday following the announcement of the government’s proposed plan.


Reuters
The ECB reportedly has rejected one Spanish strategy for rescuing Bankia.
The rejection follows reports that Bank of Spain governor Miguel Angel Fernández Ordóñez will step down a month ahead of schedule to allow his successor a head start in dealing with the country’s fiscal crisis. He was originally scheduled to complete his six-year term on July 12.

Bankia also came under fire after the parent company recently disclosed a commitment to pay one of its former executives a pension of 14 million euros, or $18 million.

Earlier in the day, Egan-Jones Ratings Co. downgraded Spain to B from BB- with a negative watch, pressuring the euro (ICAPC:EURUSD) under $1.25 against the U.S. dollar. Read more on the euro.

The ratings agency said Spain has a higher-than-average exposure to its banking sector with its top five banks owning assets equal to 204% of GDP compared with 125% in Germany.

“Spain will be expected to provide substantial financial support to its banks over the next couple of quarters because of declines in home values, austerity measures and increased unemployment although affording such support might be difficult,” Egan-Jones said in a statement.




Not that news though, probably. But, it is only Tuesday.

 
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Curious to see if Gerald Appel's magic works. Crossover now on both "buy" settings.

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Possibly the two funniest posts I have seen on futures.io (formerly BMT). My applause to @tigertrader. I was thinking about growing a beard...



https://futures.io/index-futures-trading/13452-es-s-p-500-futures-contract-sp500-spoo-nalysis-81.html#post221764


https://futures.io/index-futures-trading/13452-es-s-p-500-futures-contract-sp500-spoo-nalysis-83.html#post223042

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  #2566 (permalink)
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Time to bet on the euro - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch



Interesting timing


I really do not understand the euro enough to trade it, but have watched it daily for roughly 3 years. The pattern today I could not name, but it looked like a blowout was coming. Buy it in the face of the headlines seems like madness, but I like the thinking of Mark Hulbert on this controversial topic.


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-----------------
I anticipate Euro making an intermediate LOW in June. There is a final move upcoming lower (probability). I am working on this for one of my next major trade setups. Still need a few more days to finalize the strategy.

peace

hedvig

p.s. I don't have a final target low yet.

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In a weird jump from being concerned about sizing up, I just said to my wife, "I see $10k to $20k days on a regular basis, watched an $80k move in the past week."

Tomorrow is no different than today for my trading plan. I still have a lot of things to prove to myself. I am just putting out there that, there are no upside limits. I don't think brokers would liquidate a position because you made too much.

Learning to find those moments that defy math and backtesting is something I have made relentless obsession, an insane pursuit possibly. I do see that the posts here get just a little stranger as I go, but I am enjoying myself more, and relaxing more, and believing more.

I also see my understanding of the market action getting more and more precise. When I am firing on all cylinders, the precision gets somewhat spooky. Not knowing when that will occur keeps me very timid.

The words of The Most Interesting Trader In The World keep echoing, "Stay frightened my friend."

But, the limiting factor is not profits, it is risk.

 
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researcher247 View Post
-----------------
I anticipate Euro making an intermediate LOW in June. There is a final move upcoming lower (probability). I am working on this for one of my next major trade setups. Still need a few more days to finalize the strategy.

peace

hedvig

p.s. I don't have a final target low yet.


I agree that the low is not yet set, and have nothing to base that on except looking at the price action. I do not know the euro that well, or I don't believe that I do. But I do see a very strongly biased market that, if reversed, could unwind with enough force to decaptitate someone.

 
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We don't have a tv in our bedroom, but I often use my laptop to watch hulu. Tonight as I fight to keep my eyes open, the 6E is what I am watching. I do not know it's more intricate behavior, and can already see the charts for CL are not a direct hit. But I find it as entertaining as any show out there.

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GaryD View Post
Oh, come on! Just tell me where your stop is...

Seriously. That is where I like to trade. Let's see what happens where the real battle occurs.

50/50 chance that this accelerates to the downside (DX to the upside), but no longer interesting (to me). Instead time for me to go back in my hole and see how things go from here. Cover all swing cars on QM this morning. The multiple car 3rd entry made a difference. 84 is still in the cards IMO.

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