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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
Man, I ALMOST sold 92.10. Hit it for 8 on 1 contract...
Euro did fallout, 1335 did resist, channel did hold... Scared of the momentum. Pussy. lol
EDIT: Really, that was a tough place to enter, and when CL finally turned it would not look back. The short I took was the first retrace to the impulse DC. Small target, but I am going to try to push the "probability" factor some, and CL had an extremely high probability of that not being a single spike move down, after everything else that had just occured.
Reading back, I might think I should have bought ES this morning with a target of 1333, and sold 6E for a breakout, but those are not my trades. My thing is CL. I am regaining focus on that.
I noticed this weekend Big Mike was thoughtful enough to allow me to decide who I was, and the title "Market Wizard" always felt uncomfortable. I study crude, and mostly, I LISTEN to crude. I had a friend leave me a voicemail recently that said, "Is this the Oil Whisperer?"
No, but I like that better than Market Wizard.
Shhhhh. It will tell you what it is going to do, if you listen. lol!
Being silly, but believe it or not, that seems to help me.
I walked up and down the beach yesterday, carrying my tattered copy of Market Wizards with me, clutched more like a preacher might carry a bible. I never opened it once, just carried it. I know all the stories and just gave myself a refresher course recently. Just odd that I did that.
(considered shorting TF, but stopped myself)
When I was in my teens my parents got divorced, and my stepfather introduced me to several of the other religions of the world, and the similar message that exists in many of them. "Do the right thing", basically. I saw many similarities in the stories which had different characters, but a similar message. He once said, referring to any of them, "It is like someone wrote you a letter explaining what to do, how to live your life. You don't need to keep going back to it. Read it, understand it, do it."
Not trying to compare a trading book to a religious writing, but I am comparing the advice of my stepfather from one book to another. And thinking in that direction, as I carried my book from place to place, I just kept thinking about internalizing the messages contained inside. There is no one way to trade, it is up to me to find my way. But there are many stories offered that might help me make my decisions, and determine what the "right thing" is.
If I short TF now, it is a bad trade by probability, based on what I understand. But more important, it is against my promise to myself through the end of July.
Pick you trade wisely, get your $1k, stop.
I want to prove that I do not need to be worried about relying solely on trading for an income. Forget about making a lot of money, just make an income. The $1k is plus or minus, and I must stop either way. I BELIEVE I can do that with low risk, and high probability, trading 2-4 contracts. Especially if I am very selective in my trades.
Today I did quit, got out of the house until after 2pm so I had no choice. There was certainly more in possibility today, a lot more. But I hit what I felt was the best probability, and hit it with multiple contracts, took less than a third of the move. I might have thought it was a good trade at 2x risk to 1x reward, truthfully. That is shocking to me, having forced the belief of winners larger than losers. But, for probability of a win, that was the sweet spot for me today.
I did not take it at 2x, actually had my stop who knows where, just out of probable distance by gut feel. Scary that I am thinking that way.
EDIT: I should re-phrase that. Not "scary" meaning I feel out of control, quite the opposite. A new understanding, or different interpretation of what is already understood, has surprised me the past few days. @zt379's wrong dream hit me with that 2x4, was a part of what shook something loose. @researcher247's comment to me about golf. My big let down on a swing attempt. The re-read of Tom Baldwin... caused me to see things different. Any day prior, I would have been short at that top, and it might have been a beautiful trade. I identified the area on the chart I posted before the open, I stated the ES 1333-1335 had to be hit first, I said the 6E might come off. But, all had MAYBE written all over them.
But when the 6E did let loose, ES met resistance, CL stressed it's zone, and then the market moved swiftly down...THEN I nearly knew. Confidence factor, as suggested by @Surly. On a chart it might look like a poor entry to me now, but there was not a higher level of confidence on the day until that very second. If I could plot that on a chart, the entry was nailed.
The CL chart to me is becoming a tougher read tonight. I have a hard time with price in the middle of who knows where. Everything is so euro sensitive right now, and trying to read the two charts off each other does not line up tonight. Zero confidence in anything tonight, right now.
I sat down to update my chart analysis, but just sat here for awhile, not ready to touch anything.
The pressure I felt on the trade I took Friday caused me to look hard for the cause. It was just a trade. Still no answer, but it was unusually intense on me.
