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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #2421 (permalink)
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Traders want out before the EIA. We took out the low and then turned upwards.

 
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GaryD View Post
Every major index in the world is down.

When the sky is falling, it's a great time to buy!

The following user says Thank You to josh for this post:
 
  #2424 (permalink)
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josh View Post
When the sky is falling, it's a great time to buy!



Yeah, I was just sitting here questioning if I am ready to support the world markets single-handedly.

I am in no rush to trade today. My stance this morning has been 5' from my desk. I am very interested to see what happens here though.

 
  #2425 (permalink)
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The obvious direction is down. Start to unwind that though...

 
  #2426 (permalink)
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"The conversion happens when you truly believe the future is unknowable..." It's that last little word that throws a wrench in everything, the catalyst for volatility.

No one on either side of these markets knows much of anything, except that if the other side is wrong, they win.

 
  #2427 (permalink)
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tick tock tick tock

 
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GaryD View Post
"The conversion happens when you truly believe the future is unknowable..."

Thinking about this a bit Gary...

Yesterday I took an absolutely terrible trade, and lost money. Not as much as I could have, but it was one of those you just wish you could take back and thump yourself on the head and say, "Think, McFly, think...." After I took the trade, I held onto it, but had that feeling down in my gut that said "you might be in trouble here buddy." I did not have the "warm fuzzies" -- and my stop was larger then I knew it should have been. In short, a crappy trade.

This morning, I took a gem of a trade that was timed so well that my stop was only 4 ticks, and I didn't sell the high of the day out of guessing either--it was a methodical entry; not mechanical, but methodical. Once I was in, I not only had the warm fuzzies, but the hot fuzzies. As I was trading smaller size on this trade, I did all out before my original exit point instead of a normal scale out, which is an issue, but still, it was a nice exit given it was an all out exit. In short, a great trade.

Now, in both cases there was no "knowing" the future. But yesterday I was, shall I say, pretty certain, that a bit of magic would be needed to pull off a winner. This morning, I knew that if the trade didn't work for me, I must have pissed off some higher power, because it was just that pretty. In neither case did I know the future, but I sure as hell knew that the second one was better before it even went my way more than a few ticks.

So, perhaps we don't "know" anything, but isn't it true that with our best trades, we take little heat, are able to move our stop rather quickly if we choose to do so, and if we truly objectively look at what's going on, we generally "know" that we are with those who are in control? That has been my experience, would like to hear others' thoughts on this.

 
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