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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #2381 (permalink)
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researcher247 View Post
Put that damned penny in that piggy!

Good work today.

peace

hedvig

I'm taking two today. One for the money, and one for the oil-whispering.

 
  #2382 (permalink)
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Perhaps I am mistaken.

But some 'dude' in Orlando, FL triangulated a top @93.25 'ish.' In fact he posted several times on this level; and that 'call' was spot on, indeed!

Seriously, 9 ticks of heat on that swinging trade possibility.

Beautiful analysis; according to your 'written trading plan and rules' why or why not did you take this short (in a larger downmove).

If you decided not to sell that high--was it in your trading plan to sell pullbacks higher off of that significant swing-trade number? Just asking--'cause I read your analysis in real time.

May is a natural 'volatility' cycle month for CL, ES, EURO & GC.

My swing target is 88.50 to 88.25 final target (for at least 4+ weeks now).

Just asking. Thanks! And being diplomatic and 'probing' for your thoughts.

That was very good forecasting of a market move.

Forecasting a tradeable move and then trading it are 2 separate skill sets; I would like to see you more consistently applying this--you do good work on CL.

peace

hedvig


Last edited by researcher247; May 22nd, 2012 at 03:59 PM.
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  #2383 (permalink)
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researcher247 View Post
Perhaps I am mistaken.

But some 'dude' in Orlando, FL triangulated a top @93.25 'ish.' In fact he posted several times on this level; and that 'call' was spot on, indeed!

Seriously, 9 ticks of heat on that swinging trade possibility.

Beautiful analysis; according to your 'written trading plan and rules' why or why not did you take this short (in a larger downmove).

If you decided not to sell that high--was it in your trading plan to sell pullbacks higher off of that significant swing-trade number? Just asking--'cause I read your analysis in real time.

May is a natural 'volatility' cycle month for CL, ES, EURO & GC.

My swing target is 88.50 to 88.25 final target (for at least 4+ weeks now).

Just asking. Thanks! And being diplomatic and 'probing' for your thoughts.

That was very good forecasting of a market move.

Forecasting a tradeable move and then trading it are 2 separate skill sets; I would like to see you more consistently applying this--you do good work on CL.

peace

hedvig


I would too Hedvig. You would not believe how many times I call pivots in advance (of course, in hindsight), and am working in that direction. I see a lot of it has to do with the time of day that the area is hit. I was talking about CL needed to break 93.25, and then noticed how it couldn't which should have been my confirmation. But, it also hung out there from around 4pm yesterday until around 4am this morning, suggesting it was trying to push through. If I had been watching at 4am, or whenever it made it's turn I probably would have shorted it. But I did not start watching until around 7:30am today, and by then was not sure where to get in, not liking stops that far away. And then the later pivot after the 10am push higher, that was short-term countertrend at the moment.

A lot of times it is also how my 6-range sets up. It is really not made for swing trading, and kept me out of the short this morning. The "fade", was the 6 range more than anything. That one chart has been the biggest influence on my profitability, and I will not fight it without some serious backup. And so instead of go against it today, since the 93.25 zone was so far away by then, I just passed.


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There will be trades that fit what I am comfortable with, and when they come I will take them. My call today was a "win" in knowing to not go with the 6-range or the textbook volume bar. If I missed the trade, no big deal. It was just not seeming right today, and I don't have that loss to have to make up now.

 
  #2384 (permalink)
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Notice the momentum divergence in that area. That is what I am looking for as "backup". In a zone, with volume, that would be my wishlist.

 
  #2385 (permalink)
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researcher247 View Post
Perhaps I am mistaken.

But some 'dude' in Orlando, FL triangulated a top @93.25 'ish.' In fact he posted several times on this level; and that 'call' was spot on, indeed!

Seriously, 9 ticks of heat on that swinging trade possibility.

Beautiful analysis; according to your 'written trading plan and rules' why or why not did you take this short (in a larger downmove).

If you decided not to sell that high--was it in your trading plan to sell pullbacks higher off of that significant swing-trade number? Just asking--'cause I read your analysis in real time.

May is a natural 'volatility' cycle month for CL, ES, EURO & GC.

My swing target is 88.50 to 88.25 final target (for at least 4+ weeks now).

Just asking. Thanks! And being diplomatic and 'probing' for your thoughts.

That was very good forecasting of a market move.

Forecasting a tradeable move and then trading it are 2 separate skill sets; I would like to see you more consistently applying this--you do good work on CL.

peace

hedvig

maybe you should trade them lol!!

Thanks for the company.

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  #2386 (permalink)
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  #2387 (permalink)
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I went to restart NT and it said I had a position... "Oh-oh" I thought, do not recall having one.

I was playing with GC yesterday seeing if there was anything I liked about it (traded some 3 years ago but not since) and never closed my simulated position. Currently down $2,480.00 on one contract. Guess I could test the theory about never averaging down? Or hold on and hope it comes back? Maybe I'll do both to improve my odds...

 
  #2388 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
I went to restart NT and it said I had a position... "Oh-oh" I thought, do not recall having one.

I was playing with GC yesterday seeing if there was anything I liked about it (traded some 3 years ago but not since) and never closed my simulated position. Currently down $2,480.00 on one contract. Guess I could test the theory about never averaging down? Or hold on and hope it comes back? Maybe I'll do both to improve my odds...

Decided to buy 6 more contracts, and I am already in a better position. I was down 248 ticks, now only down 31 ticks! Trading is easy! I'll keep buying until I have a profit.


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EDIT: Major flaw in my plan. My sim account only has $2,970.00 in it... Guess I'll just turn it off and see where it is tomrrow. Maybe I'll cancel the stop so it doesn't get hit and lose money?


Last edited by GaryD; May 22nd, 2012 at 06:09 PM.
 
  #2389 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
maybe you should trade them lol!!

Thanks for the company.

Who says I don't!!

They (at times) 'dovetail' with mine--like we did last Wednesday night overnight in CL.

Not to be a repetitive bore but I have been selling ALL pullbacks for 3+ weeks and still looking for my extended target of 88.50 to 88.25.

Nothing has changed my mind as of today.

p.s. Did you notice that I have been writing since early week of May that May is a natural volatility cycle for CL w/targets to the downside of at least $88.00

What day was the high of this swing move? May 1st @ $106.75 (basis July now).

Leaking lower--drip by drip.

peace

hedvig

 
  #2390 (permalink)
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researcher247 View Post
Who says I don't!!

They (at times) 'dovetail' with mine--like we did last Wednesday night overnight in CL.

Not to be a repetitive bore but I have been selling ALL pullbacks for 3+ weeks and still looking for my extended target of 88.50 to 88.25.

Nothing has changed my mind as of today.

p.s. Did you notice that I have been writing since early week of May that May is a natural volatility cycle for CL w/targets to the downside of at least $88.00

What day was the high of this swing move? May 1st @ $106.75 (basis July now).

Leaking lower--drip by drip.

peace

hedvig


I have even tried to see $88, but still coming up with 84-85 or 90. The 162 of the wave to the 112 top, and the breakout pivot at 87.



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Last edited by GaryD; May 22nd, 2012 at 06:20 PM. Reason: added fibs to chart

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