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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #2331 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
Talent is nothing, hard work is do-able by all. And our luck is the same for most of us. So that statement is weighty. I know it well. When one gets out-sized returns from the market...that statement defines whether we keep it.

Livermore was the most talented, skilled of them all...but he wasn't the one that kept his monies. Traders that understand what survival is, do.

Just got in from dinner with my wife. My previous comment was from a cell phone.

My entire review of that book, brushed through every chapter and every trader, brought the focus to that one quote, and I felt good about that in a way that makes no sense.

I am no mega-wealthy succesful trader, I am myself. I lost everything in another career, and I decided to go for another one. After an unexpected turn that shifted my views, I realized I went into my previous career with nothing but tenacity, a belief, and whatever the future was to be. I then chose trading as the next move, and had no idea the personal purification that would become.

I can "trade" today, by some standards. I would consider myself a "good" trader, in a relative fashion.

But I am no GREAT trader, as of YESTERDAY. And tomorrow I may say the same.

But I am far enough down this path that I don't doubt the possibility that statement is changing. But never a guarantee, that is one intriguing part.





I read another quote from Bruce Kovner that caught roughy equal attention. It is dark in my offce, I can see the keyboard only from the light of the monitors, so I am not searching for the exact wording tonight. I seem to take broad liberty in quotes sometimes, and hope it does not read as disrespect.

But it had something to do with, watching his mentor he was able to see that it was possible, and that made the difference. That BELIEF OF POSSIBILITY MADE THE DIFFERENCE?



I watched Hulu last night, a film called "The Ordinary Skiier", or something like that. Again, not searching for the exact answer tonight. The point is, this guy blew away any expectation of what was possible. For 20+ years in a row.

The phenomenal happens on a regular basis. Just, not for everyone.

As of today, I'm ok with those odds. And gaining optimism.

 
  #2332 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
Livermore was the most talented, skilled of them all...but he wasn't the one that kept his monies. Traders that understand what survival is, do.

Good point. He was a great trader amassing a fortune in billions in today's dollars, but I always wonder how many aspiring traders realize or know Livermore lost his fortune twice and the last time at the end of his life. It's hardly mentioned in the media or by book promoters.

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  #2333 (permalink)
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Cloudy View Post
Good point. He was a great trader amassing a fortune in billions in today's dollars, but I always wonder how many aspiring traders realize or know Livermore lost his fortune twice and the last time at the end of his life. It's hardly mentioned in the media or by book promoters.

The experienced traders with alot of 'skin' in the game and thousands of hours HAVE to know that Livermore blew it all in the end and took his life. A great lesson in that book.

I think at least 90% of full-time traders know he blew out one last time and then killed himself.

Newer traders--less than 20% is my guesstimate.

Says something, doesn't it?

Remember this quote from @monpere on bmt some time ago?

""In terms of expecting to win everyday...I expect to win everyday I sit at that trading chair. If I trade well in accordance to my plan and market condition, and still have a losing day, that is perfectly acceptable, that is the way it goes sometimes.

But, if I have a losing day because I made numerous mistakes, or took unnecessary risk, or went outside of my plan, wrong market condition, or was sick, in a bad mood, wrong mental state, etc. etc., then that should not be acceptable, I need to identify these things and work on them."

And another quote from ET:

""If you want to be the best you can be then the extra time is spent on developing your art to take it to the highest levels. That might add 40%++ to your winners and reduce an already small number of losers, but even without that extra effort you'd be making a killing."

Stay on the path relentlessly and never take a large loss and your large winners/medium winners/small winners/b.e.'s and small losers will be part of the 'expectancy' {positive if you work at it} over time.

This is just math guys (once your head is right); math a 2nd grader can do.

Just math in 'real' time w/ a few shekels involved. Stay 'green/lean/mean' and you are 95% of the way there.


peace

hedvig

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  #2334 (permalink)
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93.25 proved to be a struggle so far.


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  #2335 (permalink)
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Where I have come into the past two trading days being a buyer before they even started, I am starting today with no opinion. I see conflict in many indicators.

93.25 became the resistance, and that setup a triple divergence pullback of nearly a dollar so far in crude, shifting the short-term trend to bearish. Meanwhile, the ES ran up overnight, and Europe is feeling happy for some reason.

ES hit the 382 which may be a W4 target, CL got nowhere close to it's target on a similar scale, which may be suggesting it is the weaker market of the two.

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Iran talks seem to have made some progress...


Last edited by GaryD; May 22nd, 2012 at 09:56 AM.
 
  #2336 (permalink)
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CL seems as confused as I am today. Zero trade opportunities for me so far.

 
  #2337 (permalink)
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Scratch that


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  #2340 (permalink)
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No, something is not right... closed -2 ticks, single contract, long


Last edited by GaryD; May 22nd, 2012 at 11:29 AM.

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