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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #2291 (permalink)
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"The conversion happens when you truly believe the future is unknowable...Start thinking you know the outcome and you have already slipped..."


That statement currently stands on my desk in print, just below the monitor that I just spent 30 minutes marking up to have a plan for the week. If ALL moves are completely random, why even do chart analysis?

Probability.

The quote goes on to incorporate this word, but offers little guidance in bridging the gap between unknowable and probable. Bridges make for an easier passage, but I guess are not necessary to reach the other side. It does, however, make the path more difficult.

The G8 summit may provide a clue to the possible release of the SPR, but offers me little advantage as I have yet to see the impact of this on motion. I would initially assume it would drive price down.

Oil could not generate much of a rally on Friday, and it was luck that I felt ready to close my final position. Now oil is looking to challenge the major 618, which is coming into confluence with the 162 of the initial wave down, and the 127 of the last ABC up, forming a tight band between 89.55 - 90.09.

I have an APP of the last up-wave ready to pull to a near term low pivot, if oil can find one.

As I look at the 720 minute chart, there are 2 major downspike's in oils recent history that dwarf the current move underway; 102.80 down to 77.90 in July 2011, and 104.70 to 81.30 in May 2010. If either of those are comparable to this move down, the price range becomes 81.52 - 83.11.

In hand-grenade analysis, versus sniper rifle precision, the two major areas that stand out are 90 and 84. If oil can turn within shrapnel distance of 90, a possible W4 up coincides roughly with the major lows above of 94.30 and 96.70, then setting up a beautiful 5th wave possibility to come, to finally deliver the 84 zone.

But, of course, I've already slipped...


Last edited by GaryD; May 20th, 2012 at 01:36 PM. Reason: typed wrong numbers, and typos
 
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Michael Marcus

"I think the secret is cutting down the number of trades you make. The best trades are the ones in which you have all three things going for you: fundamentals, technicals, and market tone. First, the fundamentals should suggest that there is an imbalance of supply and demand, which could result in a major move. Second, the chart must show that the market is moving in the direction that the fundamentals suggest. Third, when news comes out, the market should act in a way that reflects the right psychological tone."

 
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I sat on the dock this afternoon, took my copy of "Market Wizards", which was one of the first books I ever read about trading. I flipped through the names and re-read a few tonight.

When I first read that book I had no idea what some of it was talking about, I was most taken by the money those traders made. Today I was more drawn to the stories of their losses and lessons learned from them.

I have been thinking to myself that my enemy was fear, meanwhile in the Paul Tudor Jones interview he suggested fear was what kept him succesful. I also caught this time that he preferred picking tops and bottoms, something I am drawn to but feel guilty about for the most part. He said he did not like trade following, the stops were too wide.

I have been thinking I needed to increase the distance of the move to step up in size, however, Tom Baldwin mentioned his average target was 4 ticks, and his scalping was 90% of his trading, with position trading being maybe 10%. His trade size is (slightly) larger than mine, and he doesn't obsess with larger moves.

Nearly every trader had adapted to their own style, each had suffered substantial losses, each had learned risk management was more important that profits.




Asia seemed to like the G8 comments regarding Greece. Oil turned at 90.84, which by hand grenade standards may be as good as "90", but without US volume it is hard to tell.


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Last edited by GaryD; May 20th, 2012 at 10:39 PM.
 
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First touch of the "impulse" DC would have been a decent trade. I stared at it, had an order pending even, and then passed. But I am still not shaken from my belief in a countertrend trade in this area. Hopefully I get a shot in the morning.

 
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Not sure yet about the pivot, I wish it were 10am...but a W4 target would be somewhere around the first two yellow zones overhead, the closest being the preferred target.

An alternate plan is to short those overhead zones for a W5 down, which would present a higher potential reward in swing distance. Or for a more conservative approach, let the market turn in an overhead zone, and short the break below the low pivot (assuming it makes one). I prefer hitting the zones themselves.


Last edited by GaryD; May 20th, 2012 at 10:55 PM.
 
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Going to post this just because...

If the whole SR could be slid down some, with another push lower, it would look better with some other things on the charts.

 
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Today, Goldman says the extent of oil's decline was "unwarranted".

Jefferies, "prices seem to have found a bottom at last."

Not that any of it means anything, but it is funny to watch.

 
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The ONLY fundamental I took seriously was a few weeks ago when Saudi's said we want oil below $100.00

They (controlling interest in OPEC) are the market.

Those guys on Wall St. are clueless; by & large.

All they do is buy for a dollar (wholesale) and sell for two (churn retail accounts).

Personally, their pedigree and long hours of work and their 'edge' from churning the rest of the retail market is pretty much all they have to give to the world; which ain't saying much.

I don't make those 7 and 8 figure bonuses--but I don't have to work 12+ hours per day either.

None of us traders do--and that is a good thing. Don't have to wear a suit or drive into the city either.

peace

hedvig


Last edited by researcher247; May 21st, 2012 at 09:29 AM.
 
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Volume has moved to July

 
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researcher247 View Post
The ONLY fundamental I took seriously was a few weeks ago when Saudi's said we want oil below $100.00

They (controlling interest in OPEC) are the market.

Those guys on Wall St. are clueless; by & large.

All they do is buy for a dollar (wholesale) and sell for two (churn retail accounts).

Personally, their pedigree and long hours of work and their 'edge' from churning the rest of the retail market is pretty much all they have to give to the world; which ain't saying much.

I don't make those 7 and 8 figure bonuses--but I don't have to work 12+ hours per day either.

None of us traders do--and that is a good thing. Don't have to wear a suit or drive into the city either.

peace

hedvig


In my belief, it just means they may be taking long positions, or, still wanting to get out of some longs, or, wanting to add to their shorts. It was just a few weeks ago I thought I saw Goldman calling the top.

I am slowly working my way out of 12 hour days.


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