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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets


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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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  #2281 (permalink)
 researcher247 
Chicago, IL
 
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GaryD View Post
"Futures" not what has happened, not what will happen, what could happen. What an odd thing to want to be a trader of. The business of unknown possibilities.

Stick this quote on your monitor; read it 500 times and you'll get it.

"The conversion happens when you truly believe the future is unknowable. We have such a problem with that as a concept, as though we hate it with all our being.

Start thinking you know the outcome and you have already slipped.

That belief in chaos sets us free.

Without having to think we can act simply and quickly on probabilities, without all the drama."

peace

hedvig

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  #2282 (permalink)
 zt379 
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Marked up on a 1 min, other trades so far.
Messed up around 11.30 am to 11.45 am.


"Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile..." zt379
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  #2283 (permalink)
 researcher247 
Chicago, IL
 
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zt379 View Post
Marked up on a 1 min, other trades so far.
Messed up around 11.30 am to 11.45 am.


Um; you done yet?

That was some 'tight' trading!!

Looks like you are good to go.

Nice.

peace

Hedvig

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  #2284 (permalink)
 zt379 
UK London
 
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researcher247 View Post
Um; you done yet?

That was some 'tight' trading!!

Looks like you are good to go.

Nice.

peace

Hedvig

greetings

"Um; you done yet?"

For the moment..thx

I added a 3rd to the 2 longs.
Lost my focus for what ever reason so covered all.

Need an espresso and a lie down now...
but not sure which to DO first...
Stay well
Shalom


"Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile..." zt379
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  #2285 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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researcher247 View Post
Yea; I read that and saw it on your charts {8}.

Chicken, egg... What if I had a different time period on the momentum? Indicators are not magic, neither are hunches.

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  #2286 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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Another week over. Where is the world going, and why is it in that handbasket? And from a trading perspective, do I really care?

I still am not the same trader when I increase size, but I am becoming more of the same trader the more I repeat the exercise.

When you learn something, it is often one thing when you first discover it, yet another when you think you understand it. Then possibly some key revelation years later cause you to finally understand what it meant. And occasionally, in the most intricate of lessons, something completely different than all of the above surfaces when you finally get it. That final shift may take a lifetime.

By having really pushed my comfort level the past two months, I feel the turbulence of what I think may be one of the two of those last phases. Who could ever say there is never another view coming.

The best description I can give of some of the things that are rolling in my mind;

Indicators are not the solution to trading succesfully. But the odds are in your favor when you pay attention to them. They create a backdrop that is helpful in determing the mood of the market, but not necessarily the direction. The more you watch the same ones, the deeper the understanding of them becomes. The greater number of them that line up, the better the odds, but not necessarily the better the trade. When in doubt, stand aside or trust the indicators.

Taking a trade is not about being right or wrong, it is about studying until you recognize a repetition of events, making a decision at the moment you spot one that looks familiar, based on your experience, and letting your decision prove itself, or not. The outcome can never be known, and while insanely frustrating sometimes, planning your trading around that fact is possibly rule "number one". "I am entering the market, and have no idea what is going to happen. Why am I doing this?" The answer is, I think I am right. OK, let yourself be right. The time for debating is before you get into the trade. Once in, you are right until proven wrong. But, keep your eyes open for being wrong.

Position size is relevant to risk and account size, and that all it is. It can be deceiving in what it feels like it represents, but you could scalp a single contract incorrectly, and die a death of a thousand little cuts, but it feels like less risk than a big position. But by reducing the number of trades and focusing on the quality of the trade, incorporating everything I just tried to say above, possibly carries the least risk overall.


I am usually sad to see the week end and have no trading until Monday, but this week I am so glad the weekend is here. I traded this week almost non-stop, as I had a light workweek and wanted to make a hard push into my issues of position size. So while I did not enter the market that often, I was on it 12 hours a day watching, calculating, waiting, thinking, interpretting, reading, drawing, and occasionally trading. I am worn out and glad it is over for the week.

The arms wide open stance I took this morning was something I did for the first time this week. I was so intense, and felt like I needed to stretch and release some tension. I have been going to a new gym and my chest is sore, and so I stretched my arms out. It felt good and I released some trading stress. I did it again later, liked it again. So today I did it intentionally. Relaxed, bared my chest to the unknown, had every option to not push the mouse, it was so far away with my hands spread as far as they could get, and said "yes". Calm, accepting, "yes".

It was not a great trade, really. So so. It had things going for it, and other things against it. The fact it went for me today proves nothing. But, good setup or bad, the mindset that I approached it with was better than average today for the position size I took. Yes, I was so focused on my head that I lost touch with timing to some degree, and traded in defiance of some key indicators. Maybe I did not care about indicators for the issue I am having, maybe I cared about trust. I was most concerned with listening to myself.

I did allow my internal indicators to set up. 1) I chose my plan in advance. 2) I read that with the backdrop we had, the market woud most likely come down hard at the open, and waited for it. 3) I focused on nothing but volume, expecting this to be a fade, and so the only things on my chart that mattered were volume and price zone. The key indicator today was past knowledge, and I decided to follow it above anything else. It is no better than any other indicator I have on my screen, and I put more emphasis on it today than I should, but there are so many things running through my mind right now, I chose the ones I wanted to work on today.

I will work to bring everything back into harmony next week. But made some progress this week regardless.

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  #2287 (permalink)
 researcher247 
Chicago, IL
 
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I took 2 important concepts from your 'self-inspection/reflective' last post.

You wrote: " But by reducing the number of trades and focusing on the quality of the trade, incorporating everything I just tried to say above, possibly carries the least risk overall."
---------------
Indeed it does and continued diligence in this area will make you a calmer more centered and relaxed 'size' trader.

You wrote: "But, good setup or bad, the mindset that I approached it with was better than average today for the position size I took."

And you wrote: "I was most concerned with listening to myself...I did allow my internal indicators to set up. 1) I chose my plan in advance."
---------------
Please continue working on these concepts (this is my opinion). Finally, we put in some 'work' this week, eh? I was trading 1.5 to 2X's my normal size in all of my 3 markets {6E, CL, NQ}.

A professional trader, once he is trading his plan and knows his repeatable edge and is in control of his trade management and proper risk sizing can and will and should (if he is sharp and in good health and has planned for it) step up their size when trading ranges are opening up {either technical or fundamentally based--it matters not}--as long as the identified rise in volatility that results is comprised of normal price action that you also can quantify.

My favorite trading moments this week was trading CL and Brent Crude in the brent crude early London session on early Wednesday in the middle of the night EST. We nailed that market decline (in theory and in practice) and it was deeply satisfying identifying the potential price possibilities, forecasting that (as a possible road map) and then actually trading that 'mini-campaign' with quick and decisive action.

That was a good 'back and forth' on your journal in real time. Have a smooth weekend! I'm heading out for a night on the water and will sleep well tonight.

Peace

Hedvig

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  #2288 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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researcher247 View Post

1) The conversion happens when you truly believe the future is unknowable. We have such a problem with that as a concept, as though we hate it with all our being.

2) Start thinking you know the outcome and you have already slipped.

3) That belief in chaos sets us free.

4) Without having to think we can act simply and quickly on probabilities, without all the drama."

I printed it out last night and it is on my desk. I get the first part, often guilty of the second, not sure I understand the third, and my ultimate goal is the fourth.




I can usually get it together with 1 contract, mostly because I don't care. But using the recent 8 contract long o Friday as an example, I lost patience for the entry (which caused the trade to come back on me slightly), lost patience on the exit (makinhg the overall risk to reward less desirable), and fought myself off to remain committed to the trade.

On the good side; I followed my plan and beliefs for the trade, took almost zero heat despite the early entry, and traded the trade similar to if it were a 2 contract trade by stepping out incrementally.



I am going to complete my written trading plan this weekend, months in the re-writing for something that will not be overly complex upon completion. But I needed to know what to write, and that has taken me years to gather and months to distill.

We come into the world as puppies, full of curiosity and energy and playfulness. You and others started their trading career at an age where that mentality still dominated your being. I am an older dog now, slower to act, more cautious, not as fueled by adventure, and like my dog, Piper, abused previously. lol! But, she is 5 now and getting more confident in herself every year. She is the least scared when on a leash, and the written plan will be mine.

Thanks.

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  #2289 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


zt379 View Post
greetings

"Um; you done yet?"

For the moment..thx

I added a 3rd to the 2 longs.
Lost my focus for what ever reason so covered all.

Need an espresso and a lie down now...
but not sure which to DO first...
Stay well
Shalom




Maybe that "lost my focus for whatever reason" is the same as my "internal indicators". Experience is so hard to quantify. Something felt not right, and it proved to be not right. Good call.

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  #2290 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011





Even if I am dead wrong about expecting some version of support in this area, I should never forget that I MIGHT be right. What is great about multiple timeframes is they can give a microscopic view. What is also great is there is always a more distant perspective.

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