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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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1 off at BE

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I will limit my risk, but not my reward.

 
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Going to close before 5:45pm and re-enter after 6pm. Anything could blow it past my stop.

 
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Closed BE. Tomorrow...

Net 70 short, 2 long

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Today was the first time I traded as two traders; one as a scalper, on the short side, and the second identity was as a swing trader. I came up with this idea last week and allocated a portion of my account to being considered completely different.

What might have bothered me before was that I took a long, saw upwards of 40 ticks potential profit, and then let it come back to breakeven. But, I got to get that out of my system by scalping all day. This was a different objective, and I really felt nothing about seeing the possible $500-700 I could have made scalping it, and instead see success in step one of the process to shape my mind to hold longer. So what if I gave that up? I didn't have it to start with. The idea is to pursue greater risk to reward and use my chart analysis skills to a higher benefit than I do currently.

I documented the chart images so I can learn from what happened, relive it somewhat.



I am still just as interested in a long trade in the 92.00 - 92.50 area as I was earlier, but brought my stop to BE due to the ES looking weak into the close. The stop loss would not have been hit at 92.05, the low of the retrace was 92.15, and I would be back up $250ish as I type this. But 25 cents in CL is nothing, or at least I want to learn that belief.

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There are not necessarily significant buyers in this area, as much as there is an absence of sellers.

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And as oversold as CL is, when everyone is short, I expect the market to rise. Had ES not given out into the close, and I guess I kind of knew it was a high possibility based on the background, had it held CL would have a strong base to trade off of.

Not sure if I will enter tonight or in the morning, but until the low around 91.81 breaks, I am a buyer in this price range.


Last edited by GaryD; May 17th, 2012 at 06:03 PM. Reason: typos
 
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Despite the downward pressure, price is at one of the most obvious swing zones on a daily chart, and short traders have to be seeing the same thing I am. We may see $50 in CL, but right here there is a question mark, and that is enough for a squeeze to setup.


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The down move caught right at exhaustion, and we now have a possible local double bottom forming. All of that says we may have a sharp move up coming.

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Even going into the electronic close, CL has run all the way back up to 92.82, and I would not short this for anything where it sits.

 
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I am curious whther Facebook will have any impact on the general markets? I have never paid any attention to high-profile IPOs, but there is even a countdown on a news website. With a zero event calendar, the markets will be free to move on it's own will, it is going to be a Friday, so volume could be light, and I have a strong belief (that will change if CL breaks 91.80 with any conviction) that crude is setting up for a good short squeeze. Will lack of news, the weekend, and Facebook be the recipe that ignites it?

Of course, a major run on banks would paint a different picture...


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Last edited by GaryD; May 17th, 2012 at 09:33 PM.

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