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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets


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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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  #2151 (permalink)
 researcher247 
Chicago, IL
 
Experience: Advanced
 
Posts: 429 since Oct 2009
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Hola Gary,

I am trading

a) pullbacks with multiple timeframe confirmation {scaling in & out}

AND

b) *if it happens* MOMENTUM breakouts with higher timeframe confirmation {scaling in & out}
------------
I "anticipate but do not predict" to see 'bursts' of price acceleration and then defined pullbacks within that.

I anticipate very smooth price action (CL is a beautiful instrument when the freight train comes to town) until around 5am est.

peace

Hedvig

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  #2152 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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researcher247 View Post
Hola Gary,

I am trading

a) pullbacks with multiple timeframe confirmation {scaling in & out}

AND

b) *if it happens* MOMENTUM breakouts with higher timeframe confirmation {scaling in & out}
------------
I "anticipate but do not predict" to see 'bursts' of price acceleration and then defined pullbacks within that.

I anticipate very smooth price action until around 5am est.

peace

Hedvig

My vote is for support in this region, but not my money as of yet. lol!



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  #2153 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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The first tier exhaustion fib is coming in at 91.76, which is still a decent ride down.


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  #2154 (permalink)
 researcher247 
Chicago, IL
 
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91.85 extended target for me
92.07 normal target for me

I like a 'leaking lower' market.

peace

Hedvig

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  #2155 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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researcher247 View Post
Making an exception tonight. Espresso machine fueling me.

Trading Brent (ICE) and CL (CME) tonight.

Should see nice price action all night.

Quiz: More 'daily' volume on Brent or CL?

peace

Hedvig


My data for Brent is not loading past 12/31/11, so I'm going to just guess, Brent? I have only traded it one time and decided I was just bored.

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Name:	CL 06-12 (Daily)  11_26_2011 - 5_16_2012.jpg
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  #2156 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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researcher247 View Post
91.85 extended target for me
92.07 normal target for me

I like a 'leaking lower' market.

peace

Hedvig

We're close enough to consider those the same numbers. I have 92.10 as the LSP and APP exhaustion, and 91.76 as Xfib1.

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  #2157 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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I realize we may have an impulse market underway, but for me, shorting into the main support area of 92.50 - 92.62 is off limits. I am guessing there are better ways to play this with more experience, but I am locked out of a short where price sits right now.

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  #2158 (permalink)
 researcher247 
Chicago, IL
 
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Fair enough. All major daily stuff is coming into line recently. NQ appears to be headed for it's 200 day m.a. and 2012 triple support level. VIX is going up. Gold is looking for a bottom this week of May 14th. Euro has met 1.27 ish targets.

If we go down hard (indices) I suspect you will have SH*TLOADS of opportunity for the remainder of the week.

We have a heavy calendar beginning with Oil Inventories tomorrow and the economic reports should keep price moving; big time.

These are just my opinions and I am not looking to influence you nor anyone. We all trade our plan.

One last thing; according to some more of my esoteric work MAY is a natural volatility cycle for CL; so we are only 1/2 way through the month. I have been trading it at least 200% more and 2-3 times my normal size.

March '12 (same methodology) I was looking for and have confirmed (for my work) March '12 was a MONTHLY sell (top) signal.

My bias will continue to be short (as long as 3-6 months from March '12).

Again, that is my opinion and what I am doing.

Enjoyed your posts today regarding larger swingtrading.

peace

Hedvig

 
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  #2159 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


researcher247 View Post
Fair enough. All major daily stuff is coming into line recently. NQ appears to be headed for it's 200 day m.a. and 2012 triple support level. VIX is going up. Gold is looking for a bottom this week of May 14th. Euro has met 1.27 ish targets.

If we go down hard (indices) I suspect you will have SH*TLOADS of opportunity for the remainder of the week.

We have a heavy calendar beginning with Oil Inventories tomorrow and the economic reports should keep price moving; big time.

These are just my opinions and I am not looking to influence you nor anyone. We all trade our plan.

One last thing; according to some more of my esoteric work MAY is a natural volatility cycle for CL; so we are only 1/2 way through the month. I have been trading it at least 200% more and 2-3 times my normal size.

March '12 (same methodology) I was looking for and have confirmed (for my work) March '12 was a MONTHLY sell (top) signal.

My bias will continue to be short (as long as 3-6 months from March '12).

Again, that is my opinion and what I am doing.

Enjoyed your posts today regarding larger swingtrading.

peace

Hedvig


Yes, I was looking at the calendar for tomorrow earlier tonight, the recipe for volatility is written there. Thinking I might quit early tomorrow.

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  #2160 (permalink)
 josh 
Legendary Market Wizard
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Sorry to interrupt this fine trading discussion for this question, but Gary, when you highlight the zones on your chart, what tool do you use? It doesn't look like NT's rectangle, and it has major problems anyway, so I'm looking for an alternative rather than coding my own.

The market always looks the weakest before a major U turn, but it's definitely a no-buy for me right now in the equities space.... Asia looking weak and will be interesting to see how Europe behaves on open in a few hours.


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