Just sitting here staring at charts, adding and deleting lines to have some idea what my plan is for tomorrow, and this post kept repeating in my head. I should be trading far more contracts than I do by the rules you find acceptable, maybe if I started over with $5k it would be different.
Maybe had I not experienced such major losses over the past 5 years. I have some financial scars, and they are what holds me back more than anything. Futures trading is so highly leveraged, and I think I am just comfortable in my zone for now, knowing it is hard for me to get hurt the way I trade. I would love to have 20 contract trades, if they were all winners.
I am working up still, one contract here, then 3 there, held up to 5 contracts recently for 18-30 ticks, held 2 contracts through 15 ticks heat, baby steps. If I thought I could trade with a 6 tick stop that might also help, but I don't relax with a stop that close, CL is so jumpy. I could probably trade ES with a 6 tick stop, and have been watching it daily again for the past few months. Also watching 6E and TF, possibly looking at a market change and/or addition that would allow me to scale up easier.
At 1 contract though, I can take losses like they were nothing. I can add in and still feel ok, swap back and forth, and concentrate on the game and not the money. I am working very hard on the mental shift away from that, but mentioned before that I do not understand how to take a desire to increase size and separate it from an issue related to money. If it is not about the money, why step up to begin with? So the desire to step up comes from wanting to make more, which means I am thinking about the money. It is a circular discussion that I have had with myself for awhile now.
I do appreciate all the advice and words of encouragement. I'm not going anywhere, and will get where I want to be soon enough.
I have been trading TF some recently. Nothing major, but I do like it a lot better than ES. 6E I have a hard time determing S/R for some reason. I am guessing it has it's own nuances that I just don't understand. And reading volume in 6E seems to work backwards for me, which has been a deal killer so far.
How can a trader at JP Morgan lose $2 billion, and it was done under "management"? I am assuming he was a "decent" trader to have been put into that position? Do traders get so good that the belief in themselves turns on them?
It seems there are better traders on futures.io (formerly BMT) than at JP Morgan. Maybe they should scout this site, assuming there are a few jobs available now.
I set my charts up to watch for larger moves, and many times have +10 ticks and then get out at breakeven +/-. The indicators I have chosen are to point me towards larger and larger moves. The 50+ticks I target per day is trading 1 contract, and I believe I have focused on that goal believing it widens the gap between success and failure. I think I see going for even more extended moves as a further widening of that gap. Maybe it is the market I chose?
If 10 ticks was the goal, I would be done early. Maybe that is the way this is supposed to work, but I just won't believe it?
I don't know, just carving my own niche I guess. Still discovering who I am to some degree. Coming back from a massive setback in other places and more interested in risk control than profits, maybe. I do not like risk anymore. Maybe I have had my share of high-leverage and am content to pass.
The swing training is also about expanding on my skills. I find my chart analysis to be very accurate by my standards, but really only use it to take very small sections in the right direction, meanwhile leaving the bulk of the move untapped. Swing trading is something I have been wanting to add for years now, but I am such a pussy most of the time, not wanting to just let it g for a day or two.
For some reason I prefer the high-pressure in and out trades, maybe they seem more tangible. But then I watch price move right to the next zone I have staked out, and know that I was in the move near the start, but got 15,30,50 ticks out of a 150,200 tick swing. And I see that over and over, but will not allow a trade to run that far.
I try to base my smaller trades around S/R zones, because that is where the volume seems to be, so most of my trades are at the start of a larger move. I have been working on using the zones in reverse, taking the trade that is headed for a zone, believeing there is really nothing to stop it. That thought is making progress.
I have considered getting a timer and setting it when I enter a trade. I can't do anything until it goes off, or it hits my stop or target. Then when the timer goes off I can move my stop or target, but then have to reset the timer again. At 1 contract I can't get hurt that bad, and I really want to train myself to stay in longer moves. It is not really trying to predict the future as much as knowing that I have seen this enough that I believe it is probable.
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Volume is a tough read at night, but there was a noticeable reaction at 92.62, which was a direct hit to the prior major high. Arrows on 1 minute chart. I will not buy without a reversal, and have a rule I cannot buy into magenta T&S, but IF CL wants to turn, this area down into 92.00 even is a good place for it to happen.
I may be corrected in the morning, and calling a turn is not a good practice, but just something that I find interesting.