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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets


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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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  #2121 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


greenr View Post
I love how you analyze these markets, the way you use fibs and extensions crazy Gary :sos:

Very fascinating where did you learn this, through observation?

good work


It is a combination of several things. I trained under a mentor for awhile several years ago and learned some methods of S/R calculation, then read several books that offered similar but different methods that I incorporated, and then have watched how crude responds to the various areas and prior swings, LSPs and breakout pivots and have formed an opinion of my own for a few additional items. Today it is more a blend of education and experience, where I have kept some things, abandoned some, that more than anything helps me form a belief system that can bring order to chaos.

Sometimes they perform incredibly well, other times they melt like butter. I have many times nailed turns almost to the tick, other times not so close but still found value from seeing a reversal back through to the other side, and of course sometimes just get run over. But if nothing else, just having an idea where the various lines are helps to interpret how the price action responds in those areas. It helps stop the asking, "what in the hell, 5 minutes ago no one wanted to buy this?"

I have noticed that they work as profit targets as well as S/R.

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  #2122 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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I am not a fan of stop losses larger than profit targets, but spent a lot of time over the past week listening to seminars with other traders who did use that strategy. I decided to try a backtest tonight on a simple 2-indicator test (DC + MA) just for fun, and may have found a new addition to my S/R arsenal in the process.





Not sure how I will feel about it live yet, but I exported to Excel and fine-tuned for several markets to reduce the risk from what is shown above.

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 Big Mike 
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1) Add commission
2) If using market orders, add 1 tick slippage per side
3) If using limit orders, make sure set to penetrate before fill
4) If using Renko bar of any kind, results not valid
5) If using non-tick chart like Minute, sort all results by # of bars in trade, convert any 1-bar trade from winner to loser (NT does not know OHLC order, assumes winner)

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  #2124 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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May 13, 2012, 9:28 a.m. EDT

Naimi: Brent better around $100 a barrel
By David Winning

ADELAIDE (MarketWatch) -- Saudi Arabia would like the price of benchmark Brent crude to fall to $100 a barrel, and expects global crude stocks to build ahead of an anticipated seasonal rebound in demand starting July, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said here Sunday.

"We need to get prices at a level around $100. Now, it is still high," Naimi told reporters, referring directly to Brent--the most widely traded oil contract worldwide.

Brent crude for June delivery settled Friday at $112.26 on the ICE futures exchange.

Naimi said crude supply is exceeding demand by between 1.3 million and 1.5 million barrels a day, contributing to a build in inventories that now stands at 58 forward days.

Crude stocks "should be a little bit higher" and are likely to build ahead of a seasonal pickup in oil demand in the third and fourth quarters of the current calendar year, he said.

--Ross Kelly contributed to this article.

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 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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Big Mike View Post
1) Add commission
2) If using market orders, add 1 tick slippage per side
3) If using limit orders, make sure set to penetrate before fill
4) If using Renko bar of any kind, results not valid
5) If using non-tick chart like Minute, sort all results by # of bars in trade, convert any 1-bar trade from winner to loser (NT does not know OHLC order, assumes winner)

Mike

I obviously stumbled upon something, because shortly after I posted it here NT crashed and I am still trying to get it re-installed.

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  #2126 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


GaryD View Post
... this series of lower highs is causing that 95.25 area to become a defining line, and if broken again may not be so reslilient.





Missed the trade by sleeping...thinking of giving that habit up.

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  #2127 (permalink)
 josh 
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GaryD View Post
Missed the trade by sleeping...thinking of giving that habit up.

I've been working on a cure for it for years, let me know when you find it.

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  #2128 (permalink)
 Sunil P 
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Experience: Intermediate
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Trading: cl
 
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Posts: 292 since Jan 2012

Amphetamines...

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  #2129 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011





Today I ended the trading day somewhat upset with the market. Not that I had a bad day, but that my plans felt robbed from me by market timing. I had a plan to short CL if it broke below the yellow zone at around 95.25, but it did it overnight, so I woke up not knowing where to enter to have a reasonable stop. I did not want to buy CL, as it had just proven to be bearish in my opinion.

Then, I waited all day for a pullback to resistance, only to see it come right into the 2:30pm time window, thereby excluding me from the trade, again... and then fell off 100 ticks or so...


So, I have about 12 hours into this trade setup so far, and no acceptable trade by my time rules. If I sold by sellstop and let it go overnight, I would have had a great trade. If I sold by sell limit in the resistance zone, same thing. But I enter while volume is good and I can watch it, and that cost me today. But I was not about to short that freight train into the pit close, and was not interested in leaving a sellstop overnight with no one to watch my internet connectio, so my own rules kept me out of trades that I would have loved to have taken. And now price is in no-man's land, where would I even place a stop? 95.15 with an entry at 94.20? Not my style. I am dead in the water, and typing it out to blow off steam that has just hung out since the close.

My start of a swing trade campaign is tuck in the mud, and I am sitting here wondering if this timing issue was planned, and if they worked price action specifically to keep me out of the market...

Being silly.

So whiny, as if I expect trades to be delivered to me. But that does not change the fact that it bothered me today, still does. I got up and walked around several times throughout the day just to keep my hands off the mouse, very frustrated, and need to watch myself tomorrow for potential revenge issues related to missing out. I might try to make the money I "missed", and that is not a good setup.

Just took a few deep breaths as I think through this, and trying to internalize my own instructions. TODAY IS OVER.

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 GaryD 
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josh View Post
I've been working on a cure for it for years, let me know when you find it.

I have traded through the night before, more than once. I used to take my laptop to bed, set the volume high, and woke up every half hour or so to look at my position. Burned out a battery once by it not being able to breathe on the mattress. I also once drug a mattress into my office and slept in the floor, but far back enough where I could opennmy eyes and see the screens without getting up. Maximum obsession several years ago. Crazy even.

But truthfully, I would not stay up all night for a trade today no matter how good it might be. I was just ranting a little this morning, not really interested in trading while not rested, or committing 24 hours to watching charts. Just really rubbed me wrong this morning, and then again this afternoon. And then, I forced myself to suck it up and deal with it instead of swinging for so-so trades, which seemed to just irritate me even more.

It sucks to know that my head is in the wrong place for the day and to know that means I have to step away. Even though I will keep telling myself I am over it, I know I am probably lying, so I just try to keep myself locked up unless something really tempting comes along. The short in resistance was what I tried to wait for, and then got the shot at 2:29pm with volume almost daring me to even think of shorting.

On a frustration scale, days like today are possibly worse than major losing days to me. Like I have been grounded. But I have dealt with this before and know better. Today was just not my day.

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