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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #2101 (permalink)
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Took 102 ticks today, buying in the blue zone, 2 contracts, 1 off at +25. I wanted to hold it for 99.00, but may never like the idea of holding a trade too long. And it may not get there. The profit I see is the one I know I can have. Having now watched since Friday all three 90 minute videos with Mark Cook, where he trades for 5/8 or 5 ticks, I got the feeling my luck was about to run out this afternoon. But really I look forward to holding longer swings some day.

The practice of sizing up then back down again has caused a shift in my mind, given me greater calm in a trade for certain. It may be just the fact that I am holding trades for greater moves now that I have droped back to 1-2, but in two days of dropping back down I am up over 200 ticks Had I done that with size, I would be net positive for the experience.

I have been still working out the details of my updated trading plan, got up to about 9 pages, then dropped a few by condensing information. Added a lot of detail of the management of worst case scenarios; max daily loss, max weekly, max monthly, max yearly, each requiring a trading shut down for the remainder of the period.

I spend an unusual amount of time contemplating the move to full time, almost a non-stop conversation running in the background as I go about other things through the day.

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  #2102 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
What a beautiful bounce out of support. I watched it, but can't trade overnight volume with very much confidence.

Maybe I missed it Gary, but what is that blue colored oscillator in the bottom of this chart? Values look like they could be MACD but it doesn't really look like it.

By the way, you're doing great man -- from your perspective you see all the problems but from a third party perspective, you are doing great so keep fighting and winning!

 
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josh View Post
Maybe I missed it Gary, but what is that blue colored oscillator in the bottom of this chart? Values look like they could be MACD but it doesn't really look like it.

By the way, you're doing great man -- from your perspective you see all the problems but from a third party perspective, you are doing great so keep fighting and winning!

I used to watch momentum on a 9 range chart, but never liked the look on a 6 range. But I think I discovered the issue was I was not looking back far enough. The blue line is a 50 period standard "Momentum". I somewhat missed having a momantum indicator, and just picked 50 as a first guess, and have not had a reason to change it. Divergence is a tricky tool, so I don't want it to be too sensitive. I will only pay attention to it at a major zone, the rest of the time it is not even something I see, even though it is there.

My problems seem silly, I realize that. "I can only make X a year, boo hoo." Such a whiner recently. But, I am forcing myself to deal with some very serious issues, psychological deficiencies that developed after a major down period in my life.

I may be closer to the real problem now than even a few weeks ago. It may be as simple as, I'm not sure I can take another major loss right now.

I was born an optimist, and experienced a long string of successes for years by not believing in defeat. Then, in what I did for a living, the whole world changed. Now I have the experience of seeing that sometimes what you believe in can be dangerous, and that causes me to not know what to believe in.

I realize that typing this out online is weird. But this has become my place for transparency, for being human. Because it is almost a version of public speaking, I think very hard about what I am thinking, somewhat of a distillation process, and the long-awaited but painfully tiny drops appear here, one at a time. It keeps me in the light somewhat, instead of being confined to me and only me for conversation and observation. Almost an anchor embedded in a greater sanity.

I believe I will make it to the other side of this, almost feel the build of a market coil, and in some ways the betrayal of a false break recently.

But, just like trading where I may take the same trade 2, 3, 4 times, get hit for a few, or make a few, and then those longer-than-should-be minutes finally pass, and the trade works out. Had my initial stop been wider and I just let it be, the whole thing could have been accomplished in a single move... Not surprising, in the psychological sense; my "stop" is set too tight.

As always I appreciate the support.

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  #2106 (permalink)
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I did a little sim trading on CL this morning for kicks... man, I had forgotten what it was like. I'm not used to seeing frequent 2 tick spreads and < 10 on the bid/offer since I stopped trading it 8 months or so ago.. *gulp*

Are you stalking a long here yet Gary, or you think more down to go? It's struggling a bit to find yesterday's low so far. No need to answer while you're trading, just curious.

 
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josh View Post
I did a little sim trading on CL this morning for kicks... man, I had forgotten what it was like. I'm not used to seeing frequent 2 tick spreads and < 10 on the bid/offer since I stopped trading it 8 months or so ago.. *gulp*

Are you stalking a long here yet Gary, or you think more down to go? It's struggling a bit to find yesterday's low so far. No need to answer while you're trading, just curious.



Sorry Josh, I missed this. I am traveling again some this week, finished a project in Boston and currently in Virginia.

I have been a buyer in this zone, got nailed a few and did well a few, but if the bottom gets approached again I would change sides. CL has been trying to hold at an ABC correction bottom (the "100%" shown in the 120 minute chart just posted above), but is forming a descending triangle / pennant as it struggles. There is a tremendous amount of confluence showing up in the 91.70 - 92.80 area, so much that it almost seems destined there. And not a trade I would take, but there are some valid arguments for 84.00.

I believe you were trading ES, and if so CL to me is not just a different instrument, it is a different universe. TF is possibly the middle ground between the two as far as motion.

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GaryD View Post
................. got nailed a few and did well a few, but if the bottom gets approached again I would change sides................. There is a tremendous amount of confluence showing up in the 91.70 - 92.80 area, so much that it almost seems destined there. And not a trade I would take, but there are some valid arguments for 84.00..........................it is a different universe. ................

LOL...you and me both.

The CL is a puppy (does that not look like the CL is following ES like a slave?). Only difference is that ES actually looks much more symmetrical. The ES (when it has decent volume) is a joy to trade, lovely structure and it rewards the patient and the contextual. The CL, exciting, is also schizophrenic....Lot of days when CL exhibits this puppy behaviour, and when its doesn't - it can either give us a lot of money or cut our heads off .

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I would wager a bet the ES is going to drag CL into upside resistance before falling into the impulsive targets down below.

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  #2110 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
LOL...you and me both.

I try to trade believing support is support until it isn't. I staked out the "blue zone" a day or two in advance and have tried to buy in it, but it has been tough to be a buyer lately. But this series of lower highs is causing that 95.25 area to become a defining line, and if broken again may not be so reslilient.



Deucalion View Post


The CL, exciting, is also schizophrenic....Lot of days when CL exhibits this puppy behaviour, and when its doesn't - it can either give us a lot of money or cut our heads off .

I thought you enjoyed visceral and Darwinian


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