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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #201 (permalink)
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may close early



EDIT 8:05PM

Ah, my biggest enemy; Doubt.

The trade was struggling to pick a direction, and nearing the 2pm window can feel shaky. I had tightened my stop 2-3 ticks at a time already, maybe twice, which is the first signal to myself that I may want to step aside for a moment. If I decided I was wrong, I would prefer to step out and watch. You probably heard the saying, "when in doubt, get out".

But, doubt can also be a real killer on your bottom line. Many times in the past I would get out, then have it go in my intended direction, and so I had to spend a lot of time honing this skill to give myself some room to decide rather than exit trade ask questions later.

When I start feeling like this, I pay attention to my breathing (deep, slow, steady), review my rules, ask myself if I would still re-enter this trade, ask if it still meetws my requirements look to other markets for guidance, watch volume closely - what is it telling me?, and try to be as alert and non-committed as I can. I wish I could tell you what happened to make a final decision, but I don't remember now. This time I stayed in and it worked out for me.


Last edited by GaryD; August 16th, 2011 at 09:15 PM. Reason: recap
 
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Still in, going to hold



EDIT 8:27PM

I believe this is where the ES minor double bottom looked like it was going to hold long enough for this trade, and I also believe the ES had just burst up. Sometimes that relationship can burn you, but right now they seem to be tracking failry tight. I was "going to hold" becasue we had reached the point in the trade where it looked like it would at least break the last high pivot. Later in the trade I moved my target down about 10 ticks, which proved to cost me 10 ticks, but for some reason I have learned not to like sticking to exact profit targets and stop losses. I have read several authors explaining that not having set mathematical rules, trading by "feel" etc puts you at a disadvantage.

My apologies to any hard-core backtesters for my blasphemy, but having those type of rules works better for scalping or system trades. To me, markets are organic and always telling you something. And, whatever rules I post it just seems to ignore. So I assume my role of submissiveness and let the market tell me what it wants. lol


Last edited by GaryD; August 16th, 2011 at 09:37 PM. Reason: recap
 
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stop to 86.37

 
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This one is stubborn

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Moved around some
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"Moved around some"? How's that for commentary

I tightened my stop to above breakeven and moved my profit target down closer. The profit target move was not necessary, but I was feeling like it was prudent for some reason. Trading is not perfect, and my average move is in the 50-60 tick range, and it was feeling like a "washing machine" churn. That is an issue I am working through in my own trading, whether good or bad I have not decided yet.


Last edited by GaryD; August 16th, 2011 at 09:44 PM. Reason: recap
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closed 87.23

 
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Great day. Two trades, followed plan, held through CL's stubborn phase. Left some on the table, original long target was 87.33, but was feeling like I was pushing luck. Net for the day 128 ticks.

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gain247 View Post
Yeah, I agree. I follow the news (as scheduled in Forexfactory) only to see if it's the reason for 'abnormal' market behavior and I stay out until market 'normalizes'. This morning the CL price action was a bit sticky and grindy so first I thought maybe there's contract rollover going on but then realized market was waiting for headlines from this S/M meeting and so I waited it out. However, it looks even when market started to really move during the press conf, it also got confused as price moved quite undecisevely. I prefer to scalp only during 'normal' market conditions so I didn't take any trades anymore after I noticed that EU press conf. Just observation.

That's good that you followed your rules and that you are aware of what makes sense to you. I just gave up trying to watch news, it causes me to think. lol

No thinking allowed...

Observe, learn, act.

 
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I missed this morning's continuation of the long trade, which did in fact find the power to blow the overhead stops that were mentioned yesterday. I am flat until after the 10:30am release of the EIA, but watching the three zones shown below as yellow boxes. What I am watching for is to see if we resume the move to the downside at any of these potential resistance areas. But a short right now is insanity. It has to show me that it wants to turn before I step in front of this momentum.

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Extreme OB condition on the 93

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