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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #2071 (permalink)
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  #2072 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post

An hour from the pit open, and I am already short ready. The ES has returned to a potential minor double top, CL has worked it's way back above 104.30. I am waiting for the GDP, and need volume confirmation, but just think I saw something yesterday. If I am wrong, I lose a few hundred dollars, not the end of the world. If I am right, I may show something to myself today.


JERUSALEM (AP) -- Israel's defense minister says the world must prepare to "swiftly and firmly" stop Tehran from acquiring atomic weapons and setting off a regional nuclear arms race. In a thinly veiled reference to a military strike, Ehud Barak acknowledges that such an operation would be "complex, risky and unpredictable." He warns that a nuclear Iran "would be far more complex, dangerous and immeasurably more costly," both in terms of human lives and financially. At the Israeli Defense Ministry's annual Independence Day reception late Thursday, Barak warned that "Saudi Arabia, Turkey and even Egypt would be forced to join the race." He also predicted a nuclear Iran would "assertively" back anti-Israel militants in "sowing terror in the region and throughout the world." Iran denies it aims to build nuclear weapons




...or, not... lol! Nothing like reality to change bias.

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Back to yellow

 
  #2074 (permalink)
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By Jodi Rudoren
The New York Times
JERUSALEM - One day after Israeli newspapers reported that the nation's top general had said economic and diplomatic pressures against Iran were beginning to succeed, his superior, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, said Thursday that the chances "appear low" that the Iranian government would bow to international pressure and halt its nuclear program.

 
  #2075 (permalink)
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Finished the week up about $30 after commissions. This sizing up is not paying off at all, but I am getting more comfortable. I feel differently about it. Overall frustrated but not discouraged. As long as it is not hurting me, I have decided to stay in that zone. I have a max drawdown of equity and then I will go back to one only, but I am not needing to make money today, so why not just stay at it and feel it out some.

I was going to short this morning, but then read about some recent tension regarding Iran, and decided the safer trade was short covering into the close. Wimped out at 22 ticks on 2 contracts (15 + 29), long around .30ish, I can't recall and am sitting by the lake with a laptop. I targeted a break above the green arrow bar (shown before the open), and it did make it before 2:30, but I was tired and just glad to have the trade that I felt strongly about. My target on both would have been a good RR, but what I took was only about 1.5 to 1 from initial stop before I tightened it. But, using the new measurement of "confidence factor", I thought it was worth the risk. Guessing a 75% win rate to 15-20 ticks, and most likely would drop it before the stop was hit anyway.

 
  #2076 (permalink)
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I traded TF this week as a diversion. I have not really liked equity indexes, but of the ones out there always seemed to enjoy TF the best. Same results as CL, basically flat, but something new has been triggered by my attempt to increase size, and it felt like I was seeing TF new again. 4 contract trade in CL, then 1 contract in TF. It's almost like the size exercise has opened a new way of thinking. Maybe I'm just looking for something and seeing unjustified significance, but I believed I understood it in a way that I had not before.

Today I watched the final minutes, knowing that many previous shorts were out or trying to get that way, and new shorts were hitting the tops and getting blown away. There was a nervousness on both sides that could be felt. Longs, seeing if there was a final move, would-be shorts wondering if they dared try to call the top. The dance back and forth was intense in the final 30 minutes. I figured longs would want to cash out their wins before the Friday, despite the move uo, this remains a lower high. I shoted with a 6 tick stop, and let it move back and forth for awhile. I'd be up 10-11, then breakeven again. Finally just closed, +7. I did not thin it was going anywhere even when I took it, just decided to be part of it. The size exercise has made me less worried about smaller moves at lower leverage, and I am stretching into that feeling, enjoying it some.

I started work this week on a trading name and logo. I believe this will be the year I start an "official" record, and thought I might do it in another named entity. I am somewhat accustomed to working in another name, I think I have managed and/or owned 11 entities to date. I sent out rough draft logos to a few friends for feedback.

Living in the house on the lake has had the negative impact I was concerned about, but being aware of it before it happened has kept me in control for the most part. The house was not renovated for resale, but for a way of life. Designed with a strong south pacific influence, it feels like we have left Florida, daily. The bank modification paperwork showed up in the mailbox today, not sure if I will even fill it out yet.

This may be reaching, but looking at my account balance after nearly a month of 3-6 contracts, no real damage done. Possibly that is a required step to take; to experience that things are ok. I could have had serious losses, but I didn't. I made nothing, but that may be lack of confidence, and that is probably easier to fix than other things that could have gone wrong. I don't feel t is that big of a deal tonight, not as I did for the months leading up to it. All the tension, suspense, almost close your eyes and jump mentality, and then it was over. No broken bones, not even that much of a thrill either.

As I keep myself pegged to the edge of my comfort zone, it is like a new line is reached with each subsequent push. But the forward motion is so subtle, like watching a beard grow. I look back and see progress, but not so much day to day..

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researcher247 View Post

I'll just add this one tidbit from my experience. The avg. risk% of the money I had in my margin account when I began from 1 and 2 lots to 4 & up averaged over the 1st quarter @0.85% per trade.

Always knew if I just put the trades on (positive expectancy) and managed them according to my rules that I didn't have to overcomplicate my situation with the actual $$'s and cents on each trade.

I went back to the risk matrix and looked at what 0.85% would be on a theoretical $100k account. To trade at 1 contract per $25k would be about max leverage for my belief in a stop loss placement for CL, and that stop is tight. Two PDFs attached.

I rarely let my stop get hit though, and you said "the avg. risk%...". Do you mean the realized loss average? Or the stop placement average?

Attached Thumbnails
Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets-085-risk-matrix.pdf   Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets-085-25k.pdf  
 
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josh View Post
Or get a speed demon, spell checking, standards compliant browser like Chrome ;-)



I tried Chrome and Firefox for a few days, but I found out IE is required for a website I use. I downloaded the spell checker and am going to see how it works. Chrome did seem faster and was easier to transition to from IE.

 
  #2079 (permalink)
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I ran some backtests yesterday, something I rarely do anymore. Very simple, just looking at one or two indicators. I also downloaded some volume indicators and played with them some. Then deleted the new indicators and the backtest results, kept my charts as they were.

It is so much easier, and more entertaining, to look at new indicators and backtest results, but I saw that I was just wasting time, trying to look away from myself. What needs correcting is my acceptance of a certain risk level and in probabilities.

Sizing up has made the unknown less palatable.

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