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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
That is always frustrating. I almost took the divergence trade, but really expected one push. The bars turned magenta, which is my minimum for a reversal signal, but dead minimum, Still just watching.
On topic; missed trade but low confidence factor. But one tiny change, my conditions being met, would have pushed that confidence level to the upper range. Weird how suc a tiny detail makes such a big difference in perception.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
For Big Mike: You mentioned music, I found a great song that I related to trading, (even though it is about relationships). Rob Blackledge, "Risk Worth Taking". LOL
The red zone held with perfection this morning, but I hesitated to enter and only caught 20 ticks. I scalped another 17 and am watching the gree zone into the close.
I just learned this morning that this journal won a futures.io (formerly BMT) contest. Thanks to everyone who voted for it. I didn't write a journal to be in the contest, I just happened to have one and then the contest started, so it was a nice surprise.
I feel the best thing about Big Mike having such a contest is that it put journaling in the spotlight. It seems to get overlooked sometimes as a trading tool. Just as the studying of market movement or chart patterns can improve your trading, for me, the study of myself has been very productive
Around this time last year, after getting ready to run another test on whatever indicator and then deciding I was done backtesting, period. I said out loud, "backtest yourself". That was a moment of true clarity.
Markets only go up or down. Indicators, chart patterns, strategies, can only take you as far as you will let them. Understanding the mechanics behind even the most complex of indicators is so much simpler than undertanding what drives us deep inside, and as traders we tend to spend so much time looking for the perfect setup, the perfect chart setting, the perfect strategy, but not spending near enough time looking at ourselves and what makes us behave as we do.
As the posts of my recent battle with position size prove, journaling is not always fun, it is not always something to be proud of either. At least not in one sense of the word.
"Pride" is believed by some to be one of the "seven deadly sins", and in trading you only need one deadly sin to screw up an otherwise good thing. But I am somewhat proud of my posts here, more that I find the courage to talk about my issues and then making myself deal with them. It brings the weak areas to the front burner. Trading is a constant workout.
Now that I think about it, these four sins are not good for trading either;
Greed - Causes us to make bad decisions, think in terms of reward more than risk.
Envy - Causes us to not have patience, we want it now.
Sloth - Trading takes a lot of work. If I go to full time, I don't expect it to reduce my working hours, just my work flexibility.
Back to the journal contest, the win was a welcome bonus, but the journal itself; the discussion, the insight, the sharing, the advice, the camaraderie, and the commentary I have received from others here, has been priceless. Thanks again.
CONGRATULATIONS GaryD!!!!!! You're deserving of the Award!!!!!
"Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen." --- "Therefore, I Believe it and I will see it. And every day and in every way, I am healthier, wealthier, and wiser."
Congrats Gary!! You keep doing a fantastically honest and detailed journal. I truly enjoy reading about your approach to markets, it's eye opening and gives a lot of different ideas for me to reshape and tune my own trading style and method, which is completely different, but maybe that's why I find your thinking so interesting
[img]https://nexusfi.com/v/k8ruc8.jpg[/img]
A higher timeframe H&S (blue) with a lower timeframe inverted H&S (red). The lesser H&S would suggest a retest of the 101 area, the gerater H&S suggests a a break above 105.60 will be an exit of a DPTL boundary and potential continuation to the 109 area. 102.10 and 104.70 should be collecting stops.
This is a page from the updated trading plan I am writing. This spreadsheet will determine maximum leverage per trade based on 1) account equity and 2) a pre-determined max drawdown percentage per trade.
As I change either the percentage or the account equity, the remaining boxes re-calibrate automatically. I have not made any exact decisions about % risk or starting equity yet, but at least the formula writing is done. This page will be part of what is called the "Risk Matrix", which has two pages; one for total equity and a second for equity per contract. The idea is to have risk decline as equity increases.
This page will work with the "Equity Moving Average", which will have multiple timeframes with crossovers as milestones, which will determine the max percentage risk, but that ratio is still in debate.
My first post here on futures.io (formerly BMT). I spent this weekend reading your entire journal here. Fantastic work. Great heart of yours to be open, honest, and share wisdom.
"Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen." --- "Therefore, I Believe it and I will see it. And every day and in every way, I am healthier, wealthier, and wiser."
