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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets


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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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  #2011 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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The move up did occur overnight.

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  #2012 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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"Although there is optimism that the talks over Iran’s nuclear program will eventually lead to some sort of a settlement, the embargo is still in place and Israel continues to rattle its sabers. The Israelis are upset that the next round of meetings will not take place until late May and are warning that they will not stand by while Tehran gains the time to move its nuclear facilities underground. To back up this concern, the government permitted Israeli TV to air a program showing Israeli war planes practicing for attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities."


Peak Oil Notes - 4/19/12

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  #2013 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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Volume rolled to June. I still have not found a way to have a chart drawing in a May contract convert to a June contract. Erased and started over. I can keep thw drawing objects, but the points will not move to reflect the different price between months. Is it possible to have the pivots line up from month to month?


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  #2014 (permalink)
 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
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So position size based on confidence does make sense somewhat, but the problem is, I NEVER really "know" anything. So to keep my wins and losses in ratio with each other I believe I need to trade the same size on all similar trades. Not all trades, just like-for-like trades. If I see a 15-20 tick move that looks appealing, then take a loss of 12, I need to hit the next trade setup with the same size to have a 15-20 win offset a 12 loss. Same with a 45-55 potential. Next to confidence, the biggest factor I know of that keeps me positive is to keep winners larger than losers, so russian-roulette-style contract sizing seems like I am adding another moving target. That factor is also a motivation t go full time; some days are easier than other. How do I know unless I am available?

I have considered having days of the week where I trade larger, or time periods, or specific setups. Today I was 2-3, not 4, and that was not bad. It will effect my add-in, but just playing with it. I had a stop hit today and was somewhat proud of that "accomplishment". Seriously though, my hot potato style does not work well with larger size for me, so being far more selective, letting stops stand un-defended, and missing trades, are all parts of this transition.

I'll try to circle back around after my market closes but for now just wanted jot down a thought on this.

Perhaps rather than looking at each trade individually you can look at each day individually or each week. In other words - rather than altering positions size based on your confidence in a given trade, you can alter position size during a particular day or particular week and then watch how your confidence levels change and how your confidence level impinges on your comfort level with the larger size. Once you can see more clearly how your level of confidence in yourself, your ability to have a positive expectancy, etc influences the comfort level with the larger size you can begin to isolate this factor (confidence) and work on it directly (perhaps by altering the ratio between how much charting and analysis you do vs. time you spend actively stalking trades). The idea would be to take the idea of confidence to the "next level up" - above individual trades to "you as a trader".

I do think that to become very successful you will need to recognize trades in which you have higher confidence vs lower confidence and "lever up" (as deucalion says) when you recognize a very good trade. But I also think this requires a high level of ability, confidence, and discipline to do properly.

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #2015 (permalink)
 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
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Deucalion posted some Steenbarger docs about performance under uncertainty recently - here's a quote from one that is relevant (emphasis mine):

 Self-Efficacy – The athlete’s beliefs about his or her own capacity to perform is significantly related to actual performance. The belief in one’s own capacity to succeed is the single most important personality factor associated with athletic success. Studies find that interventions that improve self-efficacy tend to improve athletic performance, even when they involve mental practice (imagery) rather than actual athletic performance.

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #2016 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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Today is an example where ignoring most indicatrs has served me well. The chart pattern was bullish, the indicators said "sell", volume said otherwise. I am up 95 ticks, but could not explain how really.

There was a TON of support at 102.50, which was the RSP area, giving me twhat I needed to fade the market after what might be bearish news. That trade, however, was not high on my "confidence factor", as it felt very freight-trainish, I had nothing but a zone. 1 contract in and out on the way up was the bulk of it, a short calp after stops blew at 103.20 area...

I would guess the planes flying on Israel's new channels may be enough to keep shorts on the sidelines, for now, but could be wrong. The line is drawn at 102.50.




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  #2017 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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I almost want to buy NG because I feel sorry for it. It looks like it could use a buyer or two.

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  #2018 (permalink)
 Massive l 
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GaryD View Post
I almost want to buy NG because I feel sorry for it. It looks like it could use a buyer or two.

No kidding!

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  #2019 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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ES and CL may be about to part ways

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  #2020 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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