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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #191 (permalink)
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Gary, you read real well where the momentum changed to run the market down. The whole morning was grinding up while waiting for news from EU and expecting some positive headlines. I was following Sarkozy / Merkel comments (rigth after noon) and it looks markets got finally loose after their press conf.

 
  #192 (permalink)
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gain247 View Post
Gary, you read real well where the momentum changed to run the market down. The whole morning was grinding up while waiting for news from EU and expecting some positive headlines. I was following Sarkozy / Merkel comments (rigth after noon) and it looks markets got finally loose after their press conf.

Thanks gain.

I don't watch any news. I read what is going to be released and know the time, and I read Marketwatch, CNBC, Bloomberg, etc before the open and after the close, just to have some idea where the world is. But, while news can drive the market, my interpretation of that news may have nothing to do with market direction. So I don't interpret news.

Just for discusion, find me any major negative news story, past or present, and I can almost guarantee you two things; 1) that without knowing what the news was, I could find a short trade, and 2) I could also take a long trade when it looked like shorts were ripe for squeezing.

People move markets = watch volume. Markets move in predictable ways = watch charts and indicators.


Last edited by GaryD; August 16th, 2011 at 02:21 PM. Reason: another thought
 
  #193 (permalink)
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Yeah, I agree. I follow the news (as scheduled in Forexfactory) only to see if it's the reason for 'abnormal' market behavior and I stay out until market 'normalizes'. This morning the CL price action was a bit sticky and grindy so first I thought maybe there's contract rollover going on but then realized market was waiting for headlines from this S/M meeting and so I waited it out. However, it looks even when market started to really move during the press conf, it also got confused as price moved quite undecisevely. I prefer to scalp only during 'normal' market conditions so I didn't take any trades anymore after I noticed that EU press conf. Just observation.

 
  #194 (permalink)
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possible long trigger



7:43PM EDIT

What is posted above at 1:34pm was all I took time to say during the trading day. I have learned that trying to show trades in real time can hurt my accuracy, so today I just typed what I was thinking without showing charts. But, to try to make this post something of value for future reading;

1) The short term trend was up. I posted two charts in two posts just below; a 60 minute and 15 minute. The 60 was just to show the short term trend, but the 15 minute shows something of importance. Notice the back-to-back dojis follwed by a possible reversal up bar.

2) I had reversal confirmation on the 9-range that I watch. (see earlier posts or pm me)

3) I had already said earlier in the day that there was a good possible setup for a short squeeze around the 2pm window, and that we should keep an eye out for that opportunity. (see earlier posts today) This is not something I can explain, as far as what the "setup" actually looks like, but is just something I assume from having watched what happened over the past few days, where crude turned this morning (which was a good point to get traders thinking they have caught the top), what the news is, etc. And if you don't trade crude, the mechansm behind this trade is that the live trade pit closes at 2:30pm EST, and with it goes the majority of volume. That means traders will start to cover somewhere near but before that time of day, and many times that can be the start of a directional move.


Last edited by GaryD; August 16th, 2011 at 08:52 PM. Reason: end of day recap
 
  #195 (permalink)
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watching volume

 
  #196 (permalink)
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  #197 (permalink)
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This chart shows the short term trend (purple lines). Look at the green and then red dojis back-to-back. The market found some support. This was not spectacular looking on a volume chart, but still hte market did not like going lower right now. Ignore the indicator at the bottom, or at least that's what I do. That is there to show me divergences in certain situations, but as far as this trade, not necessary.


Last edited by GaryD; August 16th, 2011 at 08:57 PM. Reason: end of day recap
 
  #198 (permalink)
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In the long trade, at my favorite area, but not a perfect entry. That wave bottom around 86.45 would have been beautiful, but for some reason I was not ready. Maybe volume? Or maybe too much like freight training? Whatever it was, the next approach felt better.


Last edited by GaryD; August 16th, 2011 at 09:02 PM. Reason: end of day recap
 
  #199 (permalink)
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tightened stop 86.34

 
  #200 (permalink)
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ES trying to double bottom

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This one, after I was already in the crude trade, made me feel better about my position. Shortly after this post the ES took a burst up, and I felt golden in the crude trade. ( I have been burned by these two falling out of harmony in the past, but right now the trade seems to be more about them tracking closer. )


Last edited by GaryD; August 16th, 2011 at 09:05 PM. Reason: recap

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