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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets


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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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  #1921 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


researcher247 View Post
Call me ill-informed; however--methinks big money (institutions) are looking intermediate time frame at daily/weekly/monthly 200 m.a.

Those are all below 100 and into the high 96's.
----------
For daytrading that is fairly irrelevant.

Big swing traders are positioning themselves short more and more each day.

peace

Hedvig







It's probably been over a year since I looked at a moving average on a daily or weekly chart.

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  #1922 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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I have been watching crude since around 7:30am this morning. Took a couple quick scalps of 1 contract for a net small gain, but mostly just watching, taking trades in my mind maybe, pretending like I am both buyer and seller, trying to get my gameplan together for the 10:30am report.

As I try to feel out the sides, I am also feeling out some of the deeper issues related to my struggle with size increase. Where I would have thought going up would cause me to be more hesitant, instead it has brought out the amateur factor, and with it comes overtrading, lack of confidence, lack of patience.

So while step one was just pushing myself to get comfortable, step two is forcing myself to regain a little composure in a time of additional perceived stress. A calm under fire.

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 tukhoai 
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Big Mike View Post
I purchased a second home to rent out in the last few years, which as you know is harder to qualify for than a primary home. Lender did not seem to flinch about source of income, just wanted to look at a few years of W2's and all the usual checking, savings, retirement accounts (and trading accounts), etc.

I hope everything goes smoothly with your move. I hate moving. I want my next move to be my final destination. Bury me in the backyard, I'm done.

I visit this site several times a week:
Costa Rica Luxury Real Estate, Million Dollar Homes and Mansions

Just to help me keep my eye on the prize. I hope to be there and technically "retired" (no income needed to live), within the next 5 years (a nice 40th birthday present to myself, if I can do it).

Mike

@Big Mike, at the risk of showing show what you already knew, I found lots of informative bits about Costa Rica here: [url=http://boomersoffshore.com[/url]. Check out the video logs, esp ep. 84 about real estate prices in CR. I ended up watching the entire 108 episodes. Super cooool videos

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  #1924 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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tukhoai View Post
@Big Mike, at the risk of showing show what you already knew, I found lots of informative bits about Costa Rica here: [url=http://boomersoffshore.com[/url]. Check out the video logs, esp ep. 84 about real estate prices in CR. I ended up watching the entire 108 episodes. Super cooool videos

Thanks, there is a thread here on the discussion:



Mike

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  #1925 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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  #1926 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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Natural Gas is really starting to crack me up. This had the be the mother of all short trades.

Some day, I am watching you...

If there were any support points to calculate this would be so much easier! lol! But, using that logic, where could resistance be?

I have never traded NG, have no clue what I would be getting into. But I have watched it, analyzed it. It was on a hot list of a group of traders I studied with, to "buy" a few years back around $4 something? But lately I can't seem to stop from looking at it every day. It rides on a 2nd computer now, along such heavyweights as ES, 6E and GC. Daily volume is roughly 30% of crude, slightly less than gold.

And I do know I did not like gold as much as crude. I was not sure why at the time, but now I think I am beggining to understand why; Similar or even greater volotility as crude, but on half the volume. It seemd to lead to very "whippy" price movement, which makes it feel harder to understand. The opposite to me is ES, so much volume that it is harder to understand. CL is like Baby Bear.

But, NG is just tempting me to find a bottom, set a stop, and go. A break of the trendline seems impossible right now, so that may be the criteria. And it could be years, or never come back...but I doubt it.

Natural Gas is under-utilized, and IF crude can't keep it's costs within a certain range of alternatives (TBD), alternatives could gain momentum. What that will be, batteries maybe, who knows.

But any useful commodity will retain a value, so unlike an unprofitable company that can cease to exist, and short of any governmental ban on the use, natural gas will bottom. Guaranteed.


EDIT: Never forget, $0.001 is "value".

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 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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It always adds perspective to see that as detailed as I choose to get with chart analysis, it can always look like pure garbage on a higher timeframe. The lines themselves are nothing without 1) Volume, 2) Movement.


On a 30 minute though, those lines can feel an eternity away...



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  #1928 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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If I were going to buy crude right now, I like the yellow and blue zones. If neither holds but price penetrates lower but then comes back out, they still apply for me. I am still preferring the short side, but today did not give me any opportunity today, at least during the time I could watch. I could not believe (given my belief that direction should be lower) no reversal all day, Crude climbed like a mountain goat on crack after the EIA, and I just watched and thought, WTF?

I love crude oil; moody, bipolar even, but constant entertainment.

My home move has had some considerable complications, and so my trading has to be in my mind for the most part right now. All my stuff is in one home, my bed and trading computer is in another. Chaos.

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  #1929 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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I discarded a 9-range momentum a few months ago, but always liked to concept of momentum, so I threw one on a 6-range at a 50 period to look at it, and like the initial look.

Divergenge only makes sense at key zones, and only if they are traded for the max risk/reward they are designed for, which is why I dropped the indicator. I did not have the patience for the swing. Having to wait for more confirmation may seem to be an irritation to my patience also, but finding the turn is not the only way to win, and for shorter hold time wins waiting seemed to be better. I was run over too often for a 2 to 1 trade, and am preferring shorter hold times recently. I think it related to my work schedule.

But I like the concept of that indicator (and the RSI) and I did see value in that type of information.

I am starting to get a new trade plan together, and in typical fashion is incredibly complex in the amount of time it takes to put together. Days of information and studies to create what I hope is no more than a 3-page document, but also incredibly simplified in that it is written as somewhat of a bullet point prospectus. The complexity is in the math and visuals, but MSExcel does most of the work.

Actually more like months in progress, as one study morphs into another. But as I make my way towards full-time trading, the rules start to define themselves.

I am believing I have assembled multiple "edges" over time, and the confluence factor is becoming more and more apparent. "Quality versus quantity" was a phrase a mentor used. I hated that phrase. How did that help me? Well, it does.

I can't seem to shake the bouts with uncertainty, and it is incredibly obvious at more than 2 contracts, sometimes taking the same trade 5x before holding on, I don't quite know why, but asking myself daily.

But, when I do finally decide on a trade, somehow it keeps me afloat.

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  #1930 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


Moving brings out a lot of stuff that has been buried for years. My wife is a key factor in my motivation to have elasting success as a trader. She has always believed in me, allowed my to go in my own way, suffered the consequences sometimes...

I know I was not going to post photos, but the rules were already broken recently, and during our move I found a few points in our life that remind me why I work so hard for us both.






I proposed to my wife in New Orleans, 1995, after my dad's birthday party. This was us in a horse buggy, beaded and beered.

New Orleans 1995





Years later we bought a home in the Florida Keys, got into the fun at Fantasy Fest 2002

Key West 2002





Just as we were preparing to retire, 2008, we took a cruise shown below at St John's. I was flying to Dallas and Tulsa looking at apartment complexes to buy for our income...the Dow was falling at 300 points almost daily... Who knew we would wind up where we did...

St John's 2008






Now I work again, and I trade. I do both for us. My wife does not get the credit she deserves for the motivation factor she provides, without asking for anything.

I know you read this occasionally. I love you.

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