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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #1821 (permalink)
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I just noticed that my few trades this morning have all been fades. Shorted the buy, bought the sell. I seem to want to be a buyer today, and there is considerable support at 102.90. But I can't quite seem to rule out a retest of the 102 area, and so I am back to hands off mode. Up 29.

I also notice a slight feeling of wanting to protect myself today. This is the last day of the month, and I am looking at a single down day so far. I don't seem to be as driven to do much right now. But at the same time, also noticed I felt nothing on my entries, almost like a golden parachute for the month. Strange contradiction in my feelings. No fear, no greed, just sitting here.

But still staring, watching, waiting, contemplating. Somewhat expecting the market to show itself before the day is over.


Last edited by GaryD; March 30th, 2012 at 11:31 AM.
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  #1822 (permalink)
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That potential W4 on the 120 minute is what I believe has the market stuck right now. It almost seems there is anticipation of blowing the minor stops overhead, and that upward pressure is being used to exit longs, or establish shorts for W5. I don't believe there will be a lot of emphasis on being heavily short crude through the close, but there may be another move lower.


Last edited by GaryD; March 30th, 2012 at 11:57 AM.
 
  #1823 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
Sometimes I get thoughts that will not fall easily into words. Some realization, or breakthrough, or difference in understanding. Those moments can shift how I process information from that point forward, and thus have incredible significance. However, digesting the message enough to repeat it remains nearly impossible.

I just had one of those experiences, and logged on to my journal to document it, allow myself to read it again over the next few days.

But then I just sat here and could not even begin to describe what I was thinking. The theme was uncertainty, and how uncomfortable it can be. It seems as a species we are wired to desire some version of certainty. Trading does not cater to that very well.

The thought that I cannot seem to place now, maybe never, but I am still benefitting from, involved an acceptance of uncertainty and a new belief that certainty can be found inside of that.

I know, makes no sense.


This may be an example, but not perfect; I know that price goes up or down. Some may argue sideways, but eventually; Up / Down. Knowing that there are two possible outcomes, and combining countless experiences in various forms, a trader can get to where they will excel far beyond what can be computer backtested. Because while there is uncertainty, it is certain that it will go up or down. Allowing all experience signals to fire in the trade decision process, and assuming those signals were carefully shaped by repeated intentional selection, and if risk is managed effectively and is the result of the above; performance can exceed anything believed possible by anyone other than the traders themselves.

I was right. It made no sense. But I am only saying what I have witnessed. And I may be realizing it cannot be communicated, but possibly understood.

IF I traded at the widely accepted ratio of 1 contract per $10k, I would be on track for 65%+ per month, with a 7% max drawdown. Impossible? Possibly it is impossible, had I used such leverage would I be as relaxed? If not, my total experience factor says I would be lucky to not be down for the month.

But the only difference, possibly, or I am beginning to believe even, is not in the account balance but the mental balance.

I think this thought direction is coming from recent discussions of position size, both mine and others, including @iqgod and @researcher247.



EDIT: Technically, if the max leverage was $10k per contract, the performance numbers mentioned above could be cut in half (32% per month, 3.5% drawdown). While by far the majority of my trades involve a single contract, I have found recently that I am adding in more frequently than I have in the past year.

And, while on that topic, I just discovered today that this month the add-in/exchange entry had a win/loss roughly 20% greater than the original position, while maintaining the same average win and loss sizes, and the same max win/loss.

I'm going to go out on that "esoteric" limb here, and hope it's not an intrusion to your Journal.
(Imo it's very relevant).

There is much material to choose from this guy and hope it's of some benfit.
Oh and perhaps yes:
"every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing and then I smile"

Alan Watts - Nature Of Now

The illusion of the Ego - ALAN WATTS

Alan Watts on Human Consciousness

The Road to HERE ~ Alan Watts


Kind regards

Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile...
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  #1824 (permalink)
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I have an image of Br'er Rabbit come to mind on days like today. He did not want to be thrown into the briar patch, so he would have you believe. And crude is begging not to have those minor stops blown.

 
  #1825 (permalink)
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Last edited by GaryD; March 30th, 2012 at 02:18 PM.
 
  #1826 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
I have an image of Br'er Rabbit come to mind on days like today. He did not want to be thrown into the briar patch, so he would have you believe. And crude is begging not to have those minor stops blown.



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Br'er Rabbit says thank you.


Last edited by GaryD; March 30th, 2012 at 03:37 PM.
 
  #1827 (permalink)
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Well, score 1 for calling the day, score zero for making anything from it. I was wanting to short either overhead zone after the stops blew, but then the yellow zone got pushed through too easily and I was waiting to short the red, and it never got there. And then when it finally looked like they had the downside nailed, it was too close to 2:30pm for me to want to touch it.

 
  #1828 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
Well, score 1 for calling the day, score zero for making anything from it. I was wanting to short either overhead zone after the stops blew, but then the yellow zone got pushed through too easily and I was waiting to short the red, and it never got there. And then when it finally looked like they had the downside nailed, it was too close to 2:30pm for me to want to tough it.

I know...Im on YM, waiting for it to roll over, its trying..c'mom c'mon c'mon

No not happening, this morning I got a handfull of shorts & stayed short bias instead of believing what Im seeing...thinking roll baby..oh well.


Last edited by Billbb; March 30th, 2012 at 03:53 PM.
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  #1829 (permalink)
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Other than being just a tiny bit upset about now catching that reversal, after I started watching for it hours ago, and have stared at this near flatline market all day waiting for it...






Overall, a good day. Net 23 ticks. Got my penny. Took a 6 tick loss on a trade where I was bored, stopped myself and just hit close. Enough time passes and something that is not much of anything registers as something more than it is.

But what will make today's frustration and boredom melt away is it is Friday. Up 4 of 5 days for the week for 199 ticks, so I get a nickel, and today is the last trading day of the month, net 652 ticks by NT's record on my main computer, plus an additional 36 on a laptop that does not show up, I guess because the machine was not on. My first dime for a profitable month. I am about to make the biggest deposit into my "bank" ever; 16 cents!

The change has been laying on my desk since around noon, just to keep my head focused on the right things. As I sit here now and think hard about the significance of each coin, the bank itself, the entire ride that trading has been for me...I am almost embarrassed to admit how lucky I feel. I've been trading for over 5 years now, have gone through a lot.

I have somewhat gotten used to coming out ahead at the end of the day more often than not, at least over the past year or so. But for some reason that tiny amount of pocket change has me almost a little teary-eyed today. Like I lost something and then found it maybe.

I have kept myself focused on the goal of going to full time trading since the day I started, have kept the dream of moving up in contracts as I go, but have never quite completely trusted myself to go beyond a certain limit. Probation.

I may have acccidently stumbled onto the little bit of magic needed to be free again. I knew it had to do with the way I thought about money, I have known that for years now, but never would have guessed the answer might just be to count one penny at a time. I'll see. Still no change in my current plan.

But weeks will pass, months will pass, slowly, methodically, I expect to make more and more deposits until that little guy is full. I almost see the date.

I plan to post some performance information I found interesting, probably over the weekend. But I am done, beat, eyes worn out, and my wife has the day off.

Thanks for all the support and comments recently.

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  #1830 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
Well, score 1 for calling the day, score zero for making anything from it. I was wanting to short either overhead zone after the stops blew, but then the yellow zone got pushed through too easily and I was waiting to short the red, and it never got there. And then when it finally looked like they had the downside nailed, it was too close to 2:30pm for me to want to touch it.


zt379 View Post
I'm going to go out on that "esoteric" limb here, and hope it's not an intrusion to your Journal.
(Imo it's very relevant).

There is much material to choose from this guy and hope it's of some benfit.
Oh and perhaps yes:
"every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing and then I smile"

Alan Watts - Nature Of Now

The illusion of the Ego - ALAN WATTS

Alan Watts on Human Consciousness

The Road to HERE ~ Alan Watts


Kind regards

Past/Present/Future are happening simutanesly says Fred Allen Wolf, Einstein was on it, modern science are performing experiments today. Your future self is sending many messages to our present self by way of carrier waves & the wave that resonates w/ present wave collides & your reality is formed, (observation effect) thus your present waves are sending messages to past waves which is future to your past self which is really you right now.

Mind twister ahh..

Fascinating reading...the experts say to try to resonate w/ a future self not too far in the future til u can make the communicating ties stronger..envision something obtainable in future, feel it, believe it, for it is being sent by a carrier wave from ur future self afterall..have faith, know it already exist and except it for your reality. & dont blame it on coincidence when it arrives. Get to know ur future self. He's trying to get to know u.

You resonate w/ like minds that are on same vibrational footing, keep in mind that 98% of ur thoughts are interferance from lesser thinkers (should say "other thinkers") just on lower frequency, and it sounds like noise to you til you train your mind to not pick up on the noise...be a sender not a reciever.

How? Just become concious to every thought...ask a simple question to ur self.."Who's thought does that belong to?" Do that for 3 days and u will shut down the monkey mind inside ur head. Our minds r like satalite recievers & most of us dont know how to filter the frequencies we're recieving.

Im nuts...see ya


Last edited by Billbb; March 30th, 2012 at 05:08 PM. Reason: refrasing
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