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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets


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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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  #1791 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011





I took this photo last night before going to bed. I got more than one good laugh out of the image (actually after a few beers laughed pretty hard at it, or myself, or both).

But, at the same time, he looked so pitiful, longing for that penny so he could stand back up. And I realized I was responsible.

I let it lay there all day today until I shut down NT. More than once it kept me out of another trade, just because I was at a point where all was good; I had made enough to not only get the penny back in, but enough to erase yesterday's losses from my account balance.

I realize it seems weird to be putting so much emphasis on pennies in a plastic piggy bank, but it is amazing to me how useful of a tool that could turn out to be. I'm not thinking about the money, but I am thinking about the game.

Object: Keep the pig's feet down. Easy. No stress.

Well, yes it was a bit of pressure this morning, feeling guilty about my little friend's compromised position. That may require some adjustment as I go along. Possibly he gets back on his feet in the morning before I take the first trade. I'll figure it out as I go...



Yesterday was my first loss for some time. I got tricked into feeling it was not "fair" that I studied so long and then had my internet go out, only to come back up hours after I missed a trade I was watching for. It was not me I had revenge for, it was my equipment.

"If I lose on a trade, that is fair, but it's not fair to me to have a system failure. That should be against the rules "

That seemed to be roughly the thought process that ran in my subconscious yesterday. Yet, I would have never known it was there, had I not gotten the chance to prove it.

I decided some time ago that my trading is not a battle against other traders, nor is it me against the market. To win at trading, I must battle myself. I put a lot of effort into maintaining healthy relations with all of the beliefs and emotions that live inside me. But, despite all of that hard work, at no point am I ever completely immune to a sneak attack of some weakness that exists purely by the fact that I am human.

As much as I would like it to not be true, as much as I respect myself and my abilities, and while I honestly believe that I am, by far, my best ally... I am also the enemy.

Staying aware of that at all times is mandatory if I expect to trade at my best.

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  #1792 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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Crude winds tighter and tighter on the daily chart and is slowly running out of room. From a pattern persepctive, the odds should favor an upside move, but odds can sometimes be deceiving, and unless price decides to hold tight to 107.20, and then price freezes on 3/29/12, those colored lines will be breached with or without a directional decision.

Either way, I would expect at least a reaction at the major trendline around 105.30, but am also watching 105.70 - 105.95 for buyers.

Today's EIA should provide two moves; One before, and one after.

If crude does find a reason to break free to the upside I would be very hesitant to short it. There is a lot of upside pressure on this market that can both be seen and felt.

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  #1793 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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A release of strategic oil stocks "is a matter of weeks," the French newspaper said.

vs.

A reduction in Forties crude supply and news that South Sudan's oil fields were bombed pushed up oil prices on Tuesday. Hopes of a quick restart of South Sudan's oil production were dashed after Sudan and South Sudan accused each other of launching fresh attacks on oil-producing areas either side of their contested border on Tuesday. Sudan said it hoped the conflict would not escalate into war.

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 GaryD 
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  #1795 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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Attempting a fade entry. Not the best setup. but voume di appear where expected.

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  #1796 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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-13 still may buy

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  #1797 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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Market is testing my 2nd area, around 105.30...

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  #1798 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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scalped 1 back to positive

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  #1799 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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going to close #2, too close to EIA

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 GaryD 
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Closed. +29 ticks on the day, waiting for EIA

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