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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #171 (permalink)
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Looking out across the vast ocean of crude, in search of only the biggest waves, the kind of legendary proportion, crude has possibly completed a 5 wave move down with a near direct hit on an exhaustion fib, as well as a potential double bottom with the May 26, 2010 major low pivot. If this area holds as support...

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Big Thanks

Gary - you are definitely helping out here - I for one have learned from your posts. I don't trade crude but the concepts do generalize. Also, I think what has been most helpful to me has been the modelling of a successful trader's behavior. Basically you are demonstrating that it takes a lot of work to trade successfully - you do a great deal of very careful analysis and this is an excellent example to follow whether my methods and yours are the same or not.

At this point you've provided a lot of great examples of trading decisions and I would tell you its up to you whether to continue posting or not. Thanks very much for what you've contributed to date.

Surly

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Surly View Post
Gary - you are definitely helping out here - I for one have learned from your posts. I don't trade crude but the concepts do generalize. Also, I think what has been most helpful to me has been the modelling of a successful trader's behavior. Basically you are demonstrating that it takes a lot of work to trade successfully - you do a great deal of very careful analysis and this is an excellent example to follow whether my methods and yours are the same or not.

At this point you've provided a lot of great examples of trading decisions and I would tell you its up to you whether to continue posting or not. Thanks very much for what you've contributed to date.

Surly

Surly,

Thanks, it is nice to hear that I may actually help someone. In my search, I discovered guidance that felt somewhat cryptic. Or, the worst; too encouraging. I guess it's a tough balance to try to encourage someone to succeed while still emphasizing how slim of a chance they have. lol!


Maybe for some trading has come easier. But for me, I believe at some point, or even countless times depending on what it was, I have done everything wrong that could have been done wrong. Too little knowledge, too much risk, too much confidence, not enough respect, not enough patience, believing I was supposed to be catching tops and bottoms, fighting the market, averaging in to runaway losers, not giving a trade a chance to work, being afraid of losing a small profit, not being afraid to take a large risk, trading at all hours of the day, trading in any and all markets, trading based on indicators alone, trading based on chart patterns alone, doubling up to make back losses, (tripling up, quadrupling), trading while not feeling 100%, trading while feeling rushed or distracted (Mike may need additional servers if I keep going).


For something as seemingly simple as Up or Down, trading can get inside you and expose every last weakness that you never knew you had. In hindsight, the easy part is learning the techincal side (which at first seemed incredibly overwhelming).


The most elusive thing about trading to me is finding the weak links in my own psychology, and then being able to take apart my own thoughts, emotions, motivations and behaviors. Then consciously, and subconsciously, redirecting some, re-training some, eliminating some, understanding some others...


One of the first threads I read on this site was "Zen and the art of the small account". The title was right on target. Here's my cryptic play with that concept;


1) Do not care which way the market goes, just allow it to be. You'll probably make more money if you let the market decide where it is going.


2) A losing trade is not bad, it just is. Same with a winning trade. Do not allow one to affect your view of the other. Always know that both are ahead of you. Define what you are willing to accept from both.


3) Be extrordinarily aware of what could happen, but focus on what is at the moment. You want to be prepared for all outcomes, so that you might take advantage of them, but be attached to none of them.


Trading is sort of "Be here now", with financial consequences!


Thanks again for letting me know you enjoyed some of what I posted.

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  #174 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
Surly,

Thanks, it is nice to hear that I may actually help someone. In my search, I discovered guidance that felt somewhat cryptic. Or, the worst; too encouraging. I guess it's a tough balance to try to encourage someone to succeed while still emphasizing how slim of a chance they have. lol!


Maybe for some trading has come easier. But for me, I believe at some point, or even countless times depending on what it was, I have done everything wrong that could have been done wrong. Too little knowledge, too much risk, too much confidence, not enough respect, not enough patience, believing I was supposed to be catching tops and bottoms, fighting the market, averaging in to runaway losers, not giving a trade a chance to work, being afraid of losing a small profit, not being afraid to take a large risk, trading at all hours of the day, trading in any and all markets, trading based on indicators alone, trading based on chart patterns alone, doubling up to make back losses, (tripling up, quadrupling), trading while not feeling 100%, trading while feeling rushed or distracted (Mike may need additional servers if I keep going).


For something as seemingly simple as Up or Down, trading can get inside you and expose every last weakness that you never knew you had. In hindsight, the easy part is learning the techincal side (which at first seemed incredibly overwhelming).


The most elusive thing about trading to me is finding the weak links in my own psychology, and then being able to take apart my own thoughts, emotions, motivations and behaviors. Then consciously, and subconsciously, redirecting some, re-training some, eliminating some, understanding some others...


One of the first threads I read on this site was "Zen and the art of the small account". The title was right on target. Here's my cryptic play with that concept;


1) Do not care which way the market goes, just allow it to be. You'll probably make more money if you let the market decide where it is going.


2) A losing trade is not bad, it just is. Same with a winning trade. Do not allow one to affect your view of the other. Always know that both are ahead of you. Define what you are willing to accept from both.


3) Be extrordinarily aware of what could happen, but focus on what is at the moment. You want to be prepared for all outcomes, so that you might take advantage of them, but be attached to none of them.


Trading is sort of "Be here now", with financial consequences!


Thanks again for letting me know you enjoyed some of what I posted.

It also took me many many years going through much of what you describe so well...sigh.. lol
If it's not an intrusion here's one for you and all the traders here..
many thx

Be Here Now - Ray LaMontagne - YouTube

Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile...

Last edited by zt379; August 13th, 2011 at 03:15 AM.
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zt379 View Post
It also took me many many years going through much of what you describe so well...sigh.. lol

What if trading was not about money, but a tool to make you a better person?

It was there to teach you things like; patience, practice, persistence, acceptance. Better control of your emotions. The art of good planning and money management.

It repeated phrases like; "Slow and steady wins the race". "Change the things you can and accept the things you cannot". "Safety first". "Money isn't everything". "If at first you don't succeed...". "A bird in the hand...".



BTW - The iceberg image is great, and, I used to trade guitar but could never really make any money at it.

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What if trading was not about money, but a tool to make you a better person?

It was there to teach you things like; patience, practice, persistence, acceptance. Better control of your emotions. The art of good planning and money management.

It repeated phrases like; "Slow and steady wins the race". "Change the things you can and accept the things you cannot". "Safety first". "Money isn't everything". "If at first you don't succeed...". "A bird in the hand...".



BTW - The iceberg image is great, and, I used to trade guitar but could never really make any money at it.

Oh my, where to start...lol

Unfortunately we use (or are controlled by) money as the incentive, objective and measure of all things holy.
Gauged by the concept of loss as far as I understand things..lol

I think I see what you mean, trouble is trading is not the place for those things you mention, in of itself, imo, unless a different awareness of our relationship to and with money is realized ?

It's a complicated thing I think..

Trading turned almost everything upside down and inside out for me. After being spun around for I don't remember how many times, I realized everything was a contradiction. From the shallow...
ie: if I covered with a loss it would be at the tick the market stopped going against me.
if I didn't, it would keep going against me....and...
we need to buy when price is going down and sell when price is going up ?

What's that all about lol (well we realize after a bit or after being bit..)

To the profound, ie: we trade to make money yet money is the last thing we should be thinking about, if at all,
and we need to have all those qualities you mention (patience, practice, persistence, acceptance)
to trade well. Yet it is in trading "unwell" that teaches us (if we stick with it) both what we need in trading and in life.

Money only messes us up to the extent that we allow it to say or believe it to represent who we are.(imo)
If we have lots of it are we really something better or more ! ?
Lose it and are we really still not who we truly are ! ?

We trade to make money to create a better future, when in fact all we ever have is the now.
That being present anywhere other than in this moment is the origin of those fears and greed.

There was no training teaching how to handle what's outside the envelope, yet we were interacting with an environment
so out of orbit, space satellites get a nose bleed.

This is just my individual experience, as it was/is to you and everyone.
There is always an individuals perspective with character, personality environment etc...
yet and as you mentioned, in another post, we must be prepared for anything but without knowing what those anythings are!?

Contradictions abound.

I had some extreme experiences when I first started.
Making a lot of money in a short time and losing it even quicker. This was all down to the experience being too far outside my envelope to understand how to deal with it. At that young age and with no advice, I naively thought what I had done to make the money was down to some innate talent I had. Losing it did at least wake me up to the possibility of that not necessarily being the case....hmm ... issues.. lol
It's best to be able to sort through stuff like that, but not easy.

There were many other bad and good experiences.

I mention these things because the experiences itself is often an answer to a question but the type of experience, and how we perceive it give us an opportunity to ask the right questions of ourselves.
I thought there were things wrong with me. I thought I was a lunatic for trying. Every one I knew that didn't trade said I might think that but that they knew I was a lunatic.I think they thought this because what I had gone through was also outside of their envelope, possible outside their zip code entirely.

I knew I understood "some things"...and they were about myself but I had to question my sanity at times. Eventually I understood not be judged by the value of what was "outside" of me. I begun to understand the perspective of the present moment.
I had a passion for this that I couldn't explain. It wasn't an addiction, I could understood that, but this, well this was ermmm...well...from another planet. I was out there getting nose bleeds but to hell with it, you should've seen the view...

Making and losing changes our perspective.
We either are what we have or we are who we are I suppose and trading is all about this.
Ironically I think the more we understand this the better we trade.

I hope this post is not too long.
As I type I'm thinking, oh just delete it but well, it's my way of replying to you Gary, so apologies if it is too long and self- indulged. I don't mean it to be.

It's a mine field of reasons and experiences and moments.
They are all different for each of us while seemingly being the same or similar.
But they do, in my opinion result in a very similar result.
To trade well is to be able to interact with/in an ever changing totally dynamic, unlimited, human based environment.
But I think we need to understand human nature and there for our own to do this.
It's all very very odd really ..nothing that we started out thinking it was..lol
It's about understanding to be humble, how to push your envelope, when not to, empathy, seeking ones own council.
Working these things out while at the beginning it was what ?
"show me the money" ?

Having said all that I could have just said that trading isn't about the money, yet we think it is.
All the what if's that you mention (patience, practice, persistence, acceptance, better control of your emotions and
the art of good planning and money management) are, as you know, what trading is about.
Ultimately trading is about making us a better person for having those qualities in life in general, yet we don't initially know this.

I guess we come to understand these things. We pay for them and not only with money.
As a result they become truly our own.
They were not given to us.
These things cannot be given, to anyone.
Neither can they be won.
They aren't even earned.
They are understood and realized through experience.

It's like the market (which is human nature) is asking us a question ?
If you want to be good a trading, if you want to be the best at trading that you could possible be, then you have to be the best person that you could possible be. That's not just about being good and kind, giving and "nice", it's deeper.
It's about being aware and self aware. Aware of what lies beneath the surface and the ocean it floats in. (imo)

Is it eastern philosophy that said something along the lines of to know oneself is to know everything ?

You know Gary. Actually your post could have been rhetorical.
I hope I'm not coming across all preachy and knowing...just read my signature ..lol

Trading has indeed taught me more about myself by and from myself than anything else and the emphasis is on the "by and from". It is a self realization that we experience through experience and it never ends (oh my).
I can't see that it can happen any other way.

Trading challenges our perception of who we think we are or want to be, perhaps.

It's odd really and no doubt the most profound contradiction of all.
Being that something so contrived, so trivial (in the grand scheme of life and the universe, bleeding satellites included),
something man made and in essence of no true value, something that many argue doesn't actually exist... money....
can be a catalyst (via trading) to understand so much about ourselves on a psychological and spiritual level.
They seem such opposites.
We are given an opportunity to ponder and learn the essence of life's duality and oneness.
(this is getting heavy....better lighten up.....sell a few at market here...)

Yes the Piano, very astute of you...
I do play, and I seem to see life (good bad and the ugly alike) through music.
You do understand it's not my choice...when I was very young something fell on my head from a great height, from space I think, either way it made my nose bleed and I woke up being able to play the entire Scott Joplin song book without even sight reading.....

Hmmm ....the iceburg, pleased you like it.
It's either a reflection of the deeper side to my being
or it's me waiting for my own Titanic....... again ...I hope they are not one of the same !...lol

I think I may have written too much.
Oh well, still immature enough to make mistakes but wise enough to know I've made them..........
... there goes another envelope

Thx again for your insights and experience and willingness and ability to share and express them.
I hear you with Volume....

zt

Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile...

Last edited by zt379; August 13th, 2011 at 09:39 PM.
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  #177 (permalink)
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zt,

You caught my point exactly. Beautiful post.

It's obvious we would not become great traders without the desire to be profitable. Whoever says, "money isn't everything"... well, it still is a lot of things.

But, if the goal of making money could take a backset to the goal of understanding ourselves, if the advances in our account balances could be viewed as nothing more than a scorecard of that progress, we might be closer to the true path.

Thanks zt, you sound like a great trader.


Last edited by GaryD; August 13th, 2011 at 09:03 PM. Reason: typos
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  #178 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
zt,

You caught my point exactly. Beautiful post.

It's obvious we would not become great traders without the desire to be profitable. Whoever says, "money isn't everything"... well, it still is a lot of things.

But, if the goal of making money could take a backset to the goal of understanding ourselves, if the advances in our account balances could be viewed as nothing more than a scorecard of that progress, we might be closer to the true path.

Thanks zt, you sound like a great trader.

As do you but no I'm not a great trader, but I have my moments...

Personally, for me, I would say it like this, that money is what ever we want it to be ?

There can be risk of great conflict I think. Again personally, many of my failings, internal, that got manifested externally via "unwell" trading were probably mostly due to some conflict or other.

I began to notice an ever so slight shift in how I "reacted" in a particular moment of trading.
I noticed that I was in control of my reaction of a situation that I had no control over.
For just a moment, like in the blink of an eye.
Hmmm...yes indeed, that changed my focus completely. I learnt something about myself and about where I was and what I thought I was doing.

It wasn't easy. I kept slipping back into old ways etc..but I became more aware of it each time and pushed that particular envelope and moved forward trade by trade, moment by moment.

Again for me, it's now more about thresholds, and that can relate to different things really.
We can sort of compartmentalize these so we know what issue relates to what threshold.

And a desire to be profitable ?

This quote I like a lot. Others (Hermann Hess) say it better than me but this gets to the heart of how I see it.

"The eye of the will is impure,
and makes for distortion.
Only when we want nothing,
only when our gaze becomes pure contemplation,
does the soul of things..
the beauty open to us"

As you know, you've created a very succinct, consistent trading method.
It's yours, you understand it fully, every aspect of it and because you know this, that in itself invokes your discipline to follow it. We have never met, (where were you 20 years ago lol) but I'll presume if I may that the more you're focused on what you are doing, rather than why you are doing it, in the present moment, nothing else, or very little, comes to mind.

And that's the point for me at least, that everything "comes" to mind, it's just a question of whether we let things in or politely say, no disrespect "thoughts" but I'm a little busy with something else in the moment, come back later if you want if you're still in the neighborhood.

I would say that our awareness of the present moment (after all it is our awareness of the present moment that creates it)
will be equally proportional to the extent that the "goal of making money" is absent.
Be present and it will be what we are creating, and if that is profitable then so be it...
I'm not intending to be cryptic. I read before your comment on that, and I agree. But this is what I feel.
It is real for me. Loss and profit all becomes the same thing. Neither really matter, only the process.

The present is the only place anything can be created. We must be aware of what we are focusing on (money ?) and where that focus is (future or past). After all you have already shown to yourself that your method works in a way for you to achieve what ever you want. Focusing in the present takes care of the future, and not the other way around (imo).

Nothing exists without the moment in which it is being created and each and every present moment that it exists within.
Perhaps only by being present can we have a say in what is being created ?

And there's that quite smile of acceptance...we have accepted responsibility for "Now". imo

I go on, sorry...I thought this was about waiting for the volume event on the 1 minute chart..how did it get so funky ... lol
I need a lie down

Many thx again..

Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile...

Last edited by zt379; August 14th, 2011 at 11:38 AM.
 
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GaryD View Post
Thanks, it is nice to hear that I may actually help someone. In my search, I discovered guidance that felt somewhat cryptic. Or, the worst; too encouraging. I guess it's a tough balance to try to encourage someone to succeed while still emphasizing how slim of a chance they have. lol!

You're welcome. The impulse to post your way of thinking about markets is generous - I certainly do not take it for granted.


GaryD View Post

Maybe for some trading has come easier. But for me, I believe at some point, or even countless times depending on what it was, I have done everything wrong that could have been done wrong. Too little knowledge, too much risk, too much confidence, not enough respect, not enough patience, believing I was supposed to be catching tops and bottoms, fighting the market, averaging in to runaway losers, not giving a trade a chance to work, being afraid of losing a small profit, not being afraid to take a large risk, trading at all hours of the day, trading in any and all markets, trading based on indicators alone, trading based on chart patterns alone, doubling up to make back losses, (tripling up, quadrupling), trading while not feeling 100%, trading while feeling rushed or distracted (Mike may need additional servers if I keep going).

You've just described my life over the last 2.5 years.

Something else you mentioned is that the technical side, although "overwhelming", was just the start. This is a subtle but important point. I, myself, began to study the psychological side of trading too early. I think I needed to spend more time learning the "how to's" of reading the market, placing patterns into context, understanding the different "modes" the market can be in, and just generally learning about how the market moves. By starting to look at the psychological side too early without a solid grounding in the technical I think I set myself back because I was convinced that my problems were psychological rather than technical. And now that I am more confident technically I have quite a bit of psychological baggage to overcome to consistently implement my knowledge and experience to become the trader I want to be.

Which brings me to the question of money and the need to not think about the money. Such a dichotomy! I was just telling a friend that making money HAS to be your measure of success in trading. And at the same time whether or not you make money CANNOT be your focus. When you are playing a competitive sport, you must play to win (mind you I'm talking about seriously playing a competitive sport, not just for fun). However, you cannot focus on winning and losing when you are playing - you must focus on keeping yourself in the mental state most conducive to playing your best. All of the work on technique, fitness, strategies comes outside of game time - if you don't do the work, your performance on game day will suffer. But I'll say again, WINNING must be your measure of success in a competitive sport - you can be consolidated by focusing on whether you played your best, kept the right attitude, etc but if you didn't win, you didn't succeed. The tricky thing here is that winning does not have to be viewed as the most important thing in order to view it as the ultimate measure of success. This seeming contradiction is the way I think successful traders must understand their relationship to money in trading.

Again, thanks for your willingness to share.

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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On the crude daily chart, I am watching for a short trade. There are several possible areas of interest, shown by the various lines on the chart below. The blue lines are previous pivots, the white is a 100% of the most recent wave up, the gold lines are fibs. But, no trade gets taken without other steps of confirmation. As I type this, crude is in an upswing.

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