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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #1751 (permalink)
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rico42 View Post
Same here, Gary.

“Every stock is like a human being : it has a personality – a distinctive personality – aggressive, reserved, hyper, high-strung, volatile, boring, direct, logical, predictable, unpredictable. I often studied stocks like I would study people; after a while their reactions to certain circumstances become more predictable.”

- Jesse Livermore



I agree with that completely. That was from Reminiscences?

 
  #1752 (permalink)
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lancelottrader View Post
Yes..for me..my whole trading endeavor drastically changed when I discovered CL. There's nothing else like it. It definitely fits my personality. I traded Forex for several years and sometimes when I see oil do one of those momentum spikes..I get lured in. When those spikes happened in the Euro, I knew it was usually the start of a big move. But you get a spike in oil, it often just turns right around and goes the other way. I have to remember this is not Forex ! The trick for me with CL has been trying to determine how long to hold some trades. I find that my best chance of runners usually occurs around 9:00 to 9;20 est...sometimes 10:40 est and often around 11 am est. Sometimes 2:20 pm gives a nice closing push. I have configured a 4 range chart with some algo coded trailng stop dots. Whether it is mainly psychological or not, they help me to stay in a trade much longer. The thing is..sometimes I'm up 10 to 12 ticks..but they cause me to only break even. But on many others, the dots will keep me in 50 to 100 tick trades. Being someone who scalped Forex for small tick gains, catching nice runners has been a new, but wonderful experience. Between the volume I see, the time of day, where the price level is, my adx and a few other things, I take my entries. I never take more than a 10 tick stop loss..and I will often stay in the trade untill the dots give me my exit signal. I'm very happy with the results I'm getting.
Anyhow, thanks for starting one of the best threads on here. Your posts have been very insightful and helpful to me. Here is a chart form this morning..nice move starting just before 9am est..


For anyone reading this thread---

That software is Home | Rampage Trading, I trialed them for fun in the summer of '11.

Not bad but one can nearly duplicate it (without the red/yellow/blue bars) using 'Supertrend' for Ninja.

There; I just saved you the monthly leasing fee.

peace

Hedvig

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  #1753 (permalink)
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Surly View Post

"I cannot emphasize this point enough: you are what you have the courage to be." - ari kiev


I like that a lot. I have always believed that in one way or another, but never heard it stated that way.

 
  #1754 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
The news headlines are fairly bearish this morning. If crude can make it down there, there are a lot of higher degree factors providing possible support in the 103.90-104.60 range. I am not convinced that the overnight move lower went far enough to trigger major stop yet, and am wary that they lurk just below current price. I would not want to be a buyer around 105.60 right now.


It is always fun to get to my hotel after I had made a market assesment earlier in the day but had no time to watch it. I get upset with myself sometimes when I do not follow my own thoughts on the market, it's almost better sometimes when I have to be away from it and see it later.

When I typed that CL was trading around 106.00, somewhere around 8am this morning. It found shallow support around 105.75, tried to run up, hit an abc potential, and then blew past 105.60 to bottom at 104.50. Crazy how the market can be chaotic yet somewhat predictable. Never predictable enough though...

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  #1755 (permalink)
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Surly View Post
Gary - I know you've mentioned reading Ari Kiev and I'm not sure if you're already into or through his books. But I just wanted to say that when you do start to seriously approach sizing up, you may find Ari's book "the psychology of risk" incredibly valuable. He trained olympic athletes to reach beyond their self-imposed limits for more than a decade - his philosophy of life and risk is all about reaching your potential - especially as it relates to trading. It really is an awesome book. Here's a quote from the final pages:

"I cannot emphasize this point enough: you are what you have the courage to be." - ari kiev

Surly, thanks for this reference. I found some YT videos of Ari Kiev and I'm going to watch some later. I will also consider his book. Just so I know though, is he a trader or only a psychologist who is a trading coach? One of my favorite resources on trading is Dr. Brett Steenbarger, and I like Dr. Brett because he is not only a psychologist but a trader as well. I have found many psychologists who are in the trading world who coach traders, but who cannot trade themselves. What is your opinion of Dr. Kiev (I'm assuming he's a doctor)?

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  #1756 (permalink)
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I don't recall ever seeing that much volume on a 1 minute chart. It does not mean I know that I have never traded under those conditions, just that I never noticed it before. 12,000 contracts...wow.

My flight to DC was delayed to the point that I had to move my Thursday meetings to Friday, and my Friday meetings to Monday. Now, stuck in Virginia with not much to do, I checked back into the Marriott last night, knowing I had saved my "Marriott TV" workspace in NT.

I sat and watched that move, took a tiny piece of it, and then am still just staring at it. days of incredible moves like today's used to take my money over and over. And I would think, if I could only catch that I could make all kinds of money. But today I do not understand it, and trading is difficult enough when I do somewhat understand what is going on. With nearly every volume bar that followed nearly reading as an exhaustion bar, how am I to make any sense of that?

Net 35 ticks on a 3,000 tick burst, and just happy I am up for the day.

 
  #1757 (permalink)
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how true


GaryD View Post
I agree with that completely. That was from Reminiscences?

Yep... read it first time 10 years ago. I should read it again. If I had the time...

Working through some books on options right now as a refresher. Curious, have you ever traded options on futures? I think I will focus on just CL for now (otherwise my trading suffers) but I've been wondering lately if there are successful futures traders out there leveraging or hedging positions with options...

 
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Big Mike View Post




Mike



Is that a hint?

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  #1759 (permalink)
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wow


GaryD View Post



I don't recall ever seeing that much volume on a 1 minute chart. It does not mean I know that I have never traded under those conditions, just that I never noticed it before. 12,000 contracts...wow.

My flight to DC was delayed to the point that I had to move my Thursday meetings to Friday, and my Friday meetings to Monday. Now, stuck in Virginia with not much to do, I checked back into the Marriott last night, knowing I had saved my "Marriott TV" workspace in NT.

I sat and watched that move, took a tiny piece of it, and then am still just staring at it. days of incredible moves like today's used to take my money over and over. And I would think, if I could only catch that I could make all kinds of money. But today I do not understand it, and trading is difficult enough when I do somewhat understand what is going on. With nearly every volume bar that followed nearly reading as an exhaustion bar, how am I to make any sense of that?

Net 35 ticks on a 3,000 tick burst, and just happy I am up for the day.

Yeah, that was some rip! Any news come out? I faded it for a few ticks and got out before it settled into aTR. I had a bit of a long bias to start the day after yesterday's move but these big rips make you think twice about scaling up in EITHER direction...

 
  #1760 (permalink)
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rico42 View Post
Yeah, that was some rip! Any news come out? I faded it for a few ticks and got out before it settled into aTR. I had a bit of a long bias to start the day after yesterday's move but these big rips make you think twice about scaling up in EITHER direction...

March 23, 2012, 10:28 a.m. EDT

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Oil futures tacked on 1.5% Friday, buoyed by a report that said Iranian oil exports have fallen this month. Oil exports from Iran appear to have fallen in March by around 300,000 barrels per day, or 14%, according to a report from Reuters. May crude (NMN:CLK2) traded at $106.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $1.52. Prices posted only modest gains before the report was released.


That is alll I know. Apparently most of the trading world was short oil.


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