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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets


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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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  #1731 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011




Interesting, after the fact, that CL fell right back off again to the area where I entered a long trade. The run up towards the pit close was short covering, but as of yet there is not enough price conviction to continue or even hold in the vicinity of the overhead resistance zone. I made my long entry on volume, but also msde my exit on lack of. Seeing that the move up lacked real momentum makes me feel a little better about my read today.

But regardless, distracted and hungover is not a way to trade. With my wife's birthday falling on a Tuesday, and my favorite day to watch the crude market being EIA day, that made for a bad combination. I could have chosen to not drink last night, but decided to go with the flow. I could have decided to sim trade today, but did not seem to have the discipline to do that either.

There is no such thing as perfection in trading, and trading 100% discretionary means I have to accept all of the emotional and character flaws that comes with being human. I am still disappointed in myself, even thought I realize what I did wrong today is normal, and expected sometimes. I did not try to force a trade, which is worse than stepping out due to doubt. My patience to wait for the entry was actually very good. It was my patiance for an exit that suffered.

It's funny sometimes the varying derees of confidence that I can have from one moment to another, sometimes the timing of the correct entry with the correct mindset to back it is a mater of luck. I had a strong conviction for a long this morning, and I had it shaken out of me, only to see it prove correct later. I had less conviction about the long at the BOP return, and I believe just not feeling that strong in general (tired, foggy, feeling I already missed the best entry of the day from this morning) was my biggest opponent today.

More often than not I find that the limitations to my trading have more to do with me than anything else.

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  #1732 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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I just discovered a "Distribution Report" in NT. I had watched the equity curve in the past, but never really paid attention to very many of the other options on that page.

This is a view of the month of March (and I realized only covers trades on my laptop if my desktop is open, and vice-versa). What a cool thing to see after the fact. Apparently, I trade my worst around lunchtime. That is 11:30am entries in Chicago time... hmmm.


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  #1733 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
Legendary Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
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GaryD View Post
I am done for the week, have to fly to DC tonight or in the morning, still need to find a flight. I will finish the week up 154 ticks, and will go ahead and drop the nickel in today.

I was in 2 contracts earlier around 106.50, somewhere in there. But I was getting phone calls, had people coming into my office off and on, and was slightly hungover from my wife's birthday last night. I mentioned this mornig I should probably walk while I was up, and that was before my last long. I think I held that feeling of lacking confidence after already saying I was off.

I think most traders would be extremely pleased with 154 ticks in a week. At the 5 to 10 contract level, that is excellent money. Enjoy your trip.

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  #1734 (permalink)
 Sunil P 
los angeles
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: nt
Trading: cl
 
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Posts: 292 since Jan 2012

Yep...good job Gary.

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  #1735 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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lancelottrader View Post
I think most traders would be extremely pleased with 154 ticks in a week. At the 5 to 10 contract level, that is excellent money. Enjoy your trip.


If I traded 5 contracts, I would probably not do as well. lol! Next year maybe...

I used to dream of being able to net $100.00 a day. If ONLY I could hit that mark. Then, leverage up (of course), and buy a Ferrari...


But I net far better on 1 contract than 10. Just where my head is right now. I figure if I can make enough to survive on trading 1-2 contracts, not get rich or anything, but consistently nail 100-200 ticks a week, it means I have to work so much harder for it, I have to learn to be incredibly efficient at it. That level of discipline works for me right now.

I appreciate the supportive comments. It helps me put things into perspective a little better. I felt my trading was way off today. I am not sure if it was me or the market, or a combination of both.

I have slowed down to where I post a live trade only occasionally, and it needs to meet some very high qualifications. Yesterday was by far my best day this week, but I don't think there was a single trade I would have posted live. But today, I would have sworn the top would blow off today in that channel, and it did, but with me on the sidelines. And then later today, when the market fell all the way back to "textbook" support, and then showed volume confirmation, I choked.

There are times when my confidence in a trade is high, and I am wrong. There are times when my confidence in a trade is low, and I am right. And then there are days like today, where my confidence in a TRADE is high, but my confidence in MYSELF is low. Late nights and too many IPAs will do that, I guess.

Thanks again.

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  #1736 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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lancelottrader View Post
I think most traders would be extremely pleased with 154 ticks in a week. At the 5 to 10 contract level, that is excellent money. Enjoy your trip.



I thought about this as I walked through the grocery store, and I may interpret it differently now. I tell people who work with me that I can be so single-focused the majority of the time that they may have to hit me over the head with the obvious.

I do plan to trade at the 5-10 contract level in the near future. My issue today is that I have not been a "good" trader for that long, and the path I chose to become good meant I had to accept, as painfully tedious as it can be to me at times, that I am in no hurry. I chunk out my $200.00, $500.00, an occasional $1k, and then I quit. But I am headed for bigger and better things.


What I believe, is that the greater the loss I take is as a percentage of my trading capital, the harder it will be for me to get back to breakeven. Probably all traders get that if you lose 50% you have to make 100% to get back to breakeven. In an areana where a SLIGHT advantage makes all the difference, leverage can be my best friend, or my worst enemy.

The spreadsheet below is from one of my personal studies. ( I have hundreds, insanity ) Notice that the greater the loss, by percentage, it becomes exponentially harder to get ahead. I have decided to stack the odds in my favor and not think about the money, for now.




Now, let's pretend I have a $100k trading account and I want to obtain "financial freedom". What pace do I need to maintain to do that? Not you, or anyone else here, me. I'm not naive or have a dream of buying my own trailer on 20 acres in the middle of nowhere. But I also know that for me, I don't need much to be content.

If I could trade 1 contract per $10k, I could reach ridiculous heights. IF I was lucky. I don't want to have to rely on luck. I want the odds on my side as well.

So let's say on a theoretical $100k account I want to reach financial independence at age 55. If I can trade 1-2 contracts and net out 75 ticks per week (which in CL is nothing), I have a clear and somewhat relaxed path. Below is a spreadsheet of a 52 week year (I know, there are not that many trading days, but it is just for fun. The important number is 47% per year)

[URL=https://cdn.bmcharts.com/view.php?filename=updbv7.jpg][/URL


I was listening to a webinar from a trading course I paid for several years ago, and I will never forget the words, "The MINIMUM an accomplished futures trader should expect to make, is 100% per year". Minimum? WTF? Preach on. I thought I was going to make more money than I had ever imagined. What I did not get at the time, was MY worst enemy, by far, is trying to hit homeruns. (back to the spreadsheet about equity re-gain). So, for ME to suceed, and I know there are others who are far better traders and therefore can use more intense leverage to their advantage, I needed to become efficient at low leverage.

So, if I were to ever be considered an "accomplished futrues trader", I needed to be hitting, and a minimum, the 100% mark per year. I set my psychological goals for roughly half that. Not that I will quit at that point, or that I even have a daily or weekly or annual goal. But I have something that I believe in, and that I believe I can do. The chart below shows the 47.48% compounded over 20 years. I am 43, and so the 12 year mark is highlighted for when I will be 55.





I don't necessarily plan to stop then, and I may not trade as heavy as is required to maintain what is shown (I also work and have always had other investments). I also have the thought that it may not be possible to do what I do today at that level of volume. (That is one reason I keep pushing for the study of bigger moves, scale in/scale out, etc). But I focus on a somewhat leisurely stroll to financial independence, and despite my ups and downs psychologically, I have no doubt where I am headed with it. None.

I had "stuff" before. It did not make my world that much better. I want my wife, my dog, good food, fun travels, to live in a good neighborhood, to not be worried about money, to be able to help friends and family if needed.

So, back to your comment. Yes, that would be very significant income at 10 contracts traded. And yes, I am very fortunate to have survived long enough to get to the level where I trade today. Looking back at this I see that I am not as excited about that as I should be. Instead I chose to complain that I was not the trader I wanted to be today. It probably seems like I am out of touch with reality sometimes, or cocky, or worse.

I apologize if my comments came across wrong. I realize that every trader here is essentially my competition, but such is life itself. But if you are a trader, on my level anyway, I'll help if I can. If I do get to "big money", I may have to be more cut throat. lol!

I expect that if I take the path I am taking, relax, grow, build skills, learn myself as I go, when the time comes for 10 contracts, or 20 contracts, or whatever is comfortable and meets proper risk parameters, I hope to be able to do it relaxed and in control of myself. Time will tell

Trade safe.

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  #1737 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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CL did continue to show weakness overnight after hitting the major 618 retracement overhead.


And has returned to hit the major trendline, which did hold as support, and could form a double bottom in this area. Also of interest, the prior H&S shoulders found support at a similar price.





Support further down should be around 105-105.30 and 104.30-104.60

My flight to DC is delayed until noon, and with my schedule cleared I will see if the open gives any opportunities.

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  #1738 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011




As big as the CL moves appear on a daily trading basis, the major trend remains to the upside.. The wedge shape of the daily flag has opened up, but is stil intact, and the major trendline on the daily could come into play around 104.30-104.70.


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  #1739 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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The news headlines are fairly bearish this morning. If crude can make it down there, there are a lot of higher degree factors providing possible support in the 103.90-104.60 range. I am not convinced that the overnight move lower went far enough to trigger major stop yet, and am wary that they lurk just below current price. I would not want to be a buyer around 105.60 right now.

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  #1740 (permalink)
 PowerBroker 
DetroitMIUSA
 
 
Posts: 193 since Feb 2012



Quoting 
when the time comes for 10 contracts, or 20 contracts

???

You better have a million dollars in your account if you are still trading CL. LOL

Relax Gary. You're info and analysis is seemingly spot on as our euro friends say. Kudo's to you for being in CL. I was in there when I was first coming up on sim and like a newbie dork I tried it live..Oppsy!!!

Perhaps you should get rid of the dog, wife , kids etc.. JK Your mind will be a lot clearer.. I'm just sayin..

Keep it going man!!!!

PB


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