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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #1711 (permalink)
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I said to myself last night that a lot of eyes would be on 108.20 (on the April contract, not May). That price came and went today as crude came into the countdown to 2:30pm EST, and nothing really happened.


The May contract equivalent was 108.73, and price ran out of gas 3 cents short of it, and now crude has a minor double top in place at that price.


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I am still wary of the short side, and I would imagine many traders are right now. But I would have at a minimum expected that pivot to be taken out when it was only 3 cents away. And the fact that it was not has me questioning my long-only stance.

Volume showed massive selling in that area around 108.50. Of course, if there are any real substantial short positions in crude now, that pivot may have been too close to make sense for stops, and now, having a minor DT in place my attract some...

But that was a very soft response.


Last edited by GaryD; March 20th, 2012 at 01:44 AM. Reason: same reasons
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researcher247 View Post
Donchian Channels,

Looks like you have 3 different Donchian Channels...

Do you countertrend on tests of all 3 or are you using these 'with' trend?

I am strictly a w/higher timeframe trend trades trader (1st or 2nd pullback to my sweet spot OR pullback and/or breakout after momentum breakout) w/higher timeframe trend confirmation.

I saw a webinar awhile ago from a guy that used 2 or 3 donchian channels to 'fade' the touches and rejections (if all 3 were touching price).

peace

Hedvig



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Regarding Donchian channels, the 9-range above is the best use of them I know of. I did not set this chart up, but I did trade off of it almost exclusively for about a year. I like DCs probably more than I do moving averages. Whether a market is going up or down, it most often swings from one side of the channel to the other as it does. Watching the same DC setup over and over and over eventually starts to show that it only does so many things. My favorite on this chart is when the green DC makes a crossover (lower channel line higher than lowest recent upper line, or upper under lower), and then pulls back. It really holds no power, other then it just told me there was enough movement to create a cross, and the market has now pulled back a bit. Which channel it will be... such is trading. But the concept is very simple, and it works. Especially when you combine it with other things, like SR zones, volume, etc.

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CNBC story headline; "Oil Market Sentiment Evenly Split; Some See ‘Demand Destruction’ "

Those "some" were the more apparent bunch in today's action.


Last edited by GaryD; March 20th, 2012 at 01:46 AM.
 
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Last edited by GaryD; March 20th, 2012 at 11:01 AM.
 
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Like a brick wall

 
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Today I tried something new, and my feeling about it is mixed. I decided to swim upstream and see if I could pinpoint turns. My hold time was very short and I took 29 total RTs, all long. I gave myself a max drawdown of 35 ticks, and got very close to it early this morning, down 31, but I considered it an excercise in trying to calm my thoughts, and 35 ticks is not a hard target for me to deal with psychologically.

It was defiant of the shorter trend, went against my own rules, but I knew that and agreed to it going in this morning. I am trying to see something differently, not sure how to describe it. I tried to ignore any indicators except for volume, based on a discussion last night, but cannot pinpoint what I was looking for. Maybe my thoughts will be more clear later. I believe I did learn something from it, I am just not sure what. lol!

Net 80 ticks, less roughly 15 in commissions. Largest win 35 ticks, largest loss 17 ticks, so I still held to my beliefs in that respect. What I am most excited about is another penny in the pig, and not a penny removed yet.


Last edited by GaryD; March 20th, 2012 at 04:16 PM. Reason: separate
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I dont see any horizontal sup/res lines that are in pairs of three,lol....too funny

So u dont use them in this fashion?if not then maybe thats my problem

 
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EIA was a weird response, I am BE after 4 attempts.

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