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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets


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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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  #1681 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


mfbreakout View Post
I have a journal but it will get you confused (lol). I read you journal from time to time to make sure i am not in totally opposite side of what other traders are looking at.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.


If you haven't noticed, I sometimes get confused by my own journal. And, I also read it from time to time to make sure I am not on the opposite side of what I am looking at.

Just having fun. It's Friday. Thanks for your posts.

Started this thread

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  #1682 (permalink)
 mrmuggins 
manchester, england
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Trading: oil
 
Posts: 288 since Apr 2011
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Hi Gary, I trade both gold and Oil because of their volatility and their daily range. I always read your journal, even though we are totally different types of traders. I use volume to analyse the markest, with 3 different volume indicators.

I was watching oil today, and was waiting for price to go lower to take a long, but it did not and then just rallied up. After that huge rally, I saw possible exhaustion on the 3 min chart, so I would say that your entry was not as bad as you may have thought, even though it was contrary to your plan.

I have recently started a journal and I do analysis on both oil and gold. Please be my guest, have a read and feel free to leave your comments.



Dudley

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  #1683 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011



zt379 View Post
I guess we don't get one without the other..!

Couldn't resist..and hope you don't mind.

Kind regards.

Freight Train is my middle name. ha!

The more I think about that entry the more I like it. It was not the first approach, it was not "freight training". Buyers had shown it was running out of steam, the zone was there, the volume was there.

It was only blue screen above me on a 6 range chart, but not at all on a daily.

If I can gain acceptance of my entry, which I am already starting to define it as allowed, then I can move on to just be upset that I did not hold it.

Progress.

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  #1684 (permalink)
 zt379 
UK London
 
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GaryD View Post

Confirmation that I would have been rewarded for bad behavior. Where do I file that in the memory of trading experience?

Should I congratulate myself for good observation, or swear to never do it again?

The fine tuning of rules as I progress is confusing sometimes. A part of me thought that was the BEST place to enter. Another part thought that was amateur and foolish. Deciding which is which sometimes can cause more internal conflict.

Where's the conflict if we are niether, but rather choices we can make in the moment to change.
Attachments always seem to attach us to something...



GaryD View Post
Freight Train is my middle name. ha!

The more I think about that entry the more I like it. It was not the first approach, it was not "freight training". Buyers had shown it was running out of steam, the zone was there, the volume was there.

It was only blue screen above me on a 6 range chart, but not at all on a daily.

If I can gain acceptance of my entry, which I am already starting to define it as allowed, then I can move on to just be upset that I did not hold it.

Progress.

I guess, as traders, one way or another we're always stepping out in front of a train.
We have an expectation, but how fast it's going, and in which direction can often be more of a hindsight thing.

I guess we can't pick tops or bottoms but rather that we had picked a top or bottom.
The future (our expectation) becomes our present. (forgive the pun).

Sometimes just rules got us in and out, sometimes experience got us in and out.
Either way, imo its important merely to know which we're choosing at the time, in the moment.

Assuming that is, that we remember we always have a choice.

It's like a flirtatious dance as a means to learning new steps...

As for that man on the track, perhaps the rules got him in and experience got him out..
Some used to do that sort of thing as kids.
Seemed so much easier then.

Ah the weekend beckons...

Stay well

"Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile..." zt379
 
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  #1685 (permalink)
 Pajot 
Toronto, ON
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES, CL
 
Posts: 148 since May 2010
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GaryD View Post
Freight Train is my middle name. ha!

The more I think about that entry the more I like it. It was not the first approach, it was not "freight training". Buyers had shown it was running out of steam, the zone was there, the volume was there.

It was only blue screen above me on a 6 range chart, but not at all on a daily.

If I can gain acceptance of my entry, which I am already starting to define it as allowed, then I can move on to just be upset that I did not hold it.

Progress.

"Then it comes to be that the soothing light at the end of your tunnel
Was just a freight train coming your way"

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  #1686 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


Pajot View Post
"Then it comes to be that the soothing light at the end of your tunnel
Was just a freight train coming your way"


Yes, that train I have met many times.

I don't know the odds of the entry I made, I know there are claims of no statistical advantge of any one fib number over another.

I forget what confluence I had, but there were about 5 fibs plus a pre-defined SR all within about 20 cents of each other, and then the market paused, then met stopping volume.

I do make it a top priority in my studies to define potential turning points, and I have watched them carefully with a focus on internalizing the telling behavior now for roughly 3 years.

The entry I made makes sense to me, as long as my profit target makes sense. If I were going for 15 ticks, no way. But I think my initial target was around 56 tick, 58, something like that. If I can take that entry with an average loss of 28 ticks, and have a win percentage of 50%, then I have met my criteria. Not that I still keep a record like that, I used to but stopped because it now seems to just burn straight to memory. All the setups and names of them, and trying to log how far it went, etc. Eventually that record keeping started to look the same to me, so I dropped it.

I received a PM recently regarding volume analysis and how it was dead in today's world. It may be, if I ever really learned how it was originally taught. That is a joke, I read Tom William's long explanation a few years ago, downloaded as a PDF and studied with a highlighter. But that did little to nothing to help me for the way I wanted to trade. That type is still like reading the stars to me.

What made that trade less of a guess and more of a know were three volume bars, several minutes apart, all heavy, the last setting an even higher high, and then hitting the key resistance within a tick or two. It was over, or so I said to myself. Of course I did not "know", I never will. I dropped my divergence indicator recently, but if it were still on I am nearly sure it would show significant divergence in that area, just based on the price action. I had a good hunch, and that is all I will ever have.

I did swear off tops and bottoms, but even though the this top looked like I was trading against blue sky as my resistance, that is only because I enter trades with such microscopic views. On a daily chart, the run up could be seen as a pullback to a prior wave down. Where it gets tricky is I did not have a reversal signal, even at microscopic detail. But I had enough other combined supporting factors that made it an informed decision.

I am a 5 year +/- trader, and still shaping my style. I question myself a lot, and recently much of it in this journal. What you saw posted was a live decision, followed by a live questioning of myself. So I dropped the trade, even though I still believed in it. It was a chance for me to grow my decision process instead of my trading account, and that score is slightly more important to me right now. I made myself sit and watch, and digest, and review my rules.

I don't know if you have seen anything more than that day, but I have been trying to merge two directions of thought into one. I have a method that is profitable, and I have another longer term goal, and it is like having a trader on each shoulder. Today, the clear winner in the argument between the two is the one who puts money in my account on a regular basis. But, I am still rooting for the other guy.

Thanks for your post. Stay safe!

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  #1687 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Sundays. Those days are when I find the most time to examine myself as a trader. Saturdays are ok, but the week just ended, there is life outside that jumps out at me when the charts sit motionless. But Sundays seem to get me in the mood to prepare myself, mentally.

I just started something last week as a joke to myself, but today as I pack my stuff for Boston I looked at my new desktop decoration and thought I would pass it along.




I laugh as I post this, but it is something that actually has some meaning. Traders seems to be able to move themselves into zones of thought that for some reason are not bound by reality. I try to find little ways to keep myself grounded, humor is one of them, and this is a new one for me.

Here are the rules;

A winning day, add a penny.
A winning week, add a nickel.
A winning month, add a dime.
A winning quarter, well, a quarter of course.

Losing periods have the opposite effect. But, I could have four losing days, subtract a penny per day, and still add a nickel back if the week was up.

What is great about this little guy is he is transparent, I get to see right through him to the change inside. His home is just under my monitors.

Silly or not, I will fill that piggy to the top!



>>>EDIT: I wanted to come back and make sure something that is obvious to me is not missed here. There is more than one way to stuff a pig. I am starting my pig-filling adventure March 2012, and the initial week had 5 winning days plus a winning week. I have 5 pennies and a nickel right now for a 10 cent balance. Now, let's say I don't take another trade until April. I would get to double my pig holdings by getting a dime for the month. I could not trade for months and get a quarter for the quarter.

Traders seem to want to focus on exponential growth, but also tend to do it in a way that defeats the purpose. I posted the following image, or a variant of it, several times before. if you only take the information listed, all five scenarios end up the same at the end of the week. Where is the compounding?




I don't expect to not trade again until April, but I do stay aware of the fact that more is not always more. <<<







I saw futures.io (formerly BMT) had some new "Smilies".




I think it should say "Pigs". LOL

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  #1688 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011




I told a friend this morning that I was wanting to sell oil at around 107.20. It was about 106.60 at the time.

I explained the LSP in that area, and that it would probably hit that zone with no problem, but then retreat, then come back up, and probably struggle for awhile, as the direction would be believed to be up...

But I wanted to sell based on a pattern recognition. Just a few minutes ago, 10pmish, I showed him what occured today. A sell at 107.20 with a 20 tick stop would have netted a great r/r.

While my friend wonders why I don't trade full time, I find it interesting that I do not know what "pattern" I am referring to. Just something I recognize. The LSP is not really that well defined, it is a sub-pattern, so not incredibly strong. It is more the ups and downs lately that seems to bring about thoughts of an obvious probable response.

Maybe it is luck, but I don't feel like it is. I shorted the top on Friday also, in the face of a market "everyone" knows is bullish. But for some reason I seem to have a better time understanding where a market will run out of steam than I do understanding when it will continue. I am certain it has some relation to my insatiable study of where turns will occur, but can't honestly say with any definable edge how I picked that price this morning. But to me it seemd no different than commenting I thought it might rain this afternoon.

I am in Boston and for the most part living by my out-of-town rules. I took one scalp Monday and another today, both winners, but tiny. 6-9 ticks. I would be getting ready for meeting, watching volume, and a blast-from-the-past, a NT DOM. That was all I based my actual entry on, and the exit was just because I was up and did not have time to trade.

The DOM is a manipulative little device on the screen, but it can show where the pressure is short term. I made entries both days really watching nothing else for the last 60 seconds before the trade. I knew where the market was, just waited for the right push.

Not good trading really, but still something that seemed so familiar it would shock me if I was wrong for the next 6-8 ticks. I guess I have not really "traded" yet this week, and if I follow my rules I probably won't until I return home.

I spent a lot of time over the past few days questioning why I don't just go to trading full time. I'm getting to the point where my reasons why I don't are not as strong as they used to be. It does seem more practical to make money in a business that I have 20+ years in versus one I have only 5. The amount I believe I should make annually, just based on history, is a high mark if I trade full time. I think that is the barrier to entry.

If trading full time meant just making money I would not hesitate. But the risk percentage that I have hot-branded into my subconscious makes my total annual income goal not a comfortable target for trading alone. But an interesting twist to the whole drama of my situation is that as I make money in other areas, I have already ear-marked the majority as trading capital.

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  #1689 (permalink)
 bluemele 
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
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I would only go full time (this is for me) when my cashflow finally catches up to my living expenses (again) and I can focus without financial strain on where my finances will go.

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  #1690 (permalink)
 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
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josh View Post
Gary, thanks for the post above. I'm sure we all think it and I try to hit the thanks button as often as possible, but THANK YOU for your honest insights into your successes and problems. You are very real, and I respect and appreciate that so much. I am constantly encouraged by your posting of live trades--if for no other reason, to root along with you, and to see someone actually succeed. There are so many out there who say they are successful, but 99% of them won't prove it, because they are lying and their ego won't allow them to be honest. You actually are doing it, and that means a lot to many people, myself included. Both in your wins and in your losses, you are honest and that alone is priceless in this community when so many simply are not and are only after an ego boost or a buck.

You don't owe anything to anyone, but your generosity in sharing lifts my spirits and encourages me to keep going when I have a bad day. You have no idea how many times I've had my head hung low after a bad day, and then I look at your journal, and seeing your success gives me the motivation to pick myself up and keep going.

Have to echo Josh's thoughts here. Your efforts are very appreciated Gary - you make an effort to teach and I have learned a lot. In addition, the example you provide is helpful and, importantly, believable. My guess would be that 90% of those who say they're making $$ on trading forums are not and the percentage could actually be much higher. Its clear from your style, history, and posts that the example you provide is worth following and I appreciate you sharing that with us.

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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