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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets


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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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  #1671 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

I still think 107.50, but I have been up every day this week, do not have a clue what set CL on fire, and not in any rush. The wide contrdiction between CL and 6E is interesting, CL seemed to fizzle out at the 618 at 108.18.

OK, let me add, I did have strong confluence for resistance, and I did expect it to make it all the way to the 618, and I did see a volume bar when it touched it that said go for it. But, it was a ballsy trade in the face of that move.


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  #1672 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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As I take a moment to scold myself some...

I am up roughly $3k this week on mostly one contract, and feeling a little cocky. I have had the opportunity to trade from home for nearly two weeks now, and see a huge difference in my own midset, calmness, patience, analysis, etc. But now I am playing with fire and need to get my head back together. It is great to be home again, it is wise to cool off some.

I just tried to pick a top. That is testostorone, not trading.

It is also a seed that I planted when crude hit support around 104.80 and there was a 5500 contract reversal volume bar. I got scared out of a trade that I had been asking for for over a week, and I think I want to redeem myself. Also, not trading.

I set my buy sights yersterday a little too tight and regretted that. There are a lot of things going through my head right now where I feel the need to prove something to myself.

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  #1673 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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I said to myself yesterday that as long as the ES could not bust out of 1370 it was still bearish to me. So far it is still looking iffy. If I traded it.

Something is not right about the market action in general today. I wish I were intelligent enough to say what. Maybe it is me.

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  #1674 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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107.48

Confirmation that I would have been rewarded for bad behavior. Where do I file that in the memory of trading experience?

Should I congratulate myself for good observation, or swear to never do it again?

The fine tuning of rules as I progress is confusing sometimes. A part of me thought that was the BEST place to enter. Another part thought that was amateur and foolish. Deciding which is which sometimes can cause more internal conflict.

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  #1675 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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I feel like a kid debatiing with this dad. The father is wise, the kid is ambitious. "But I was right!" is what the kid might say.

Does not matter. You won't always be so lucky.

At least I entertain myself.

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  #1676 (permalink)
 Sunil P 
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Me too Gary...this is your Journal. Thank you for letting me post too.

BTW to the CL scalpers..Fridays can be the best days for swings.IMHO


Have a good weekend.

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  #1677 (permalink)
 josh 
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GaryD View Post
I still think 107.50, but I have been up every day this week, do not have a clue what set CL on fire, and not in any rush.[/URL]

Have not watched crude, but jobs number was received well by the market, that would be my guess.

I do not see why anyone would want to be long going into the weekend with Greek uncertainty, ISDA just announced credit event triggered, but market does not seem to care so much... I suppose a selloff into the close seems too obvious, but then again maybe most are thinking a bullish run into the close is obvious, so who knows my friend.

EDIT: let me rephrase, after looking at CL chart -- equities reaction to jobs number -- I see crude dropped quite a bit afterward... man, it looks like it wants down, relative to equities anyway.

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  #1678 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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I finished the day up 42 ticks, but feel somewhat confused about my trading today. On one side I think I had an awesome short entry, but I can calso argue that I broke a rule that I have; do not try to pick the top or the bottom.

I have that rule for two reasons. The first is obvious, I read that over and over from other great traders. The second more personal, my worst days, ever, have typically come from trying to pick the extreme high or low, and getting run over. Then by allowing myself to continue with that mindset I would try again, thinking if the last point was not the end of the move, surely this must be...

It is not always whether I make money or not, it is whether I traded the way I would like to trade.

In support of the short around the top, it was a major resistance area, I did wait for it with incredible patience, I did state I was "short ready", which is kind of my way of saying to myself, last chance to check your charts. I did wait for volume confrirmation, and did not set s sell stop at 108.18 (but I almost did). And, I have been trading succesfully for awhile now, and I am better at understanding potential turns than at any time in my trading history.

Is there a time that it is ok? On a larger timeframe, it is not actually a top. It is a potential lower high, a 618 retracement in a market that showed a sign of obvious resistance; VOLUME.

Making it my passion to try to make good supprot and resistance calculation means I put a lot of energy into finding those area in advance. But without reverwsal confirmation, which is different than volume confirmation, resistance is just a colored line on a chart, that does not exist in the live market.

It was a major 618, not some sub-wave 618, and so the odds that it was also on nearly every other trader's chart was pretty high.


Had I held the trade to it's original target it would have been a good trade for me. It had even more potential than I was willing to accept.

I don't know. It was enough f a rule break that I walked away to have lunch and think it out.

Net for the week is 5 days up, good money for 1 contract, profit factor 2.11, which is where I want to be. 70.31% profitable on the week, higher than I anticipate.

Overall a strong week, and I now have something significant to think about as I go into the weekend.

What is "picking the top", and how does it differ from other entries? Why should it be different on a 6 range chart of trying to enter at a key pullback, versus a key pullback on a 120 minute? Is today's entry really what the rule was intended to exclude? Should the interpretation be relevant to my profit target? Or to a certain timeframe?

Or, do rules eventually get replaced by experience?


For those who still hang in here with me, thanks for everything, all of the posts are welcome and appreciated. Let me know if you have a journal and I will check it out.

Good trading, stay safe, relax!

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  #1679 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
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I have a journal but it will get you confused (lol). I read you journal from time to time to make sure i am not in totally opposite side of what other traders are looking at.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

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  #1680 (permalink)
 zt379 
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GaryD View Post
I finished the day up 42 ticks, but feel somewhat confused about my trading today....
....do not try to pick the top or the bottom.

I have that rule for two reasons. The first is obvious, I read that over and over from other great traders. The second more personal, my worst days, ever, have typically come from trying to pick the extreme high or low, and getting run over.

Or, do rules eventually get replaced by experience?

Good trading, stay safe, relax!

I guess we don't get one without the other..!

Couldn't resist..and hope you don't mind.



Kind regards.

"Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile..." zt379
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