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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #1651 (permalink)
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josh View Post
Gary, thanks for the post above. I'm sure we all think it and I try to hit the thanks button as often as possible, but THANK YOU for your honest insights into your successes and problems. You are very real, and I respect and appreciate that so much. I am constantly encouraged by your posting of live trades--if for no other reason, to root along with you, and to see someone actually succeed. There are so many out there who say they are successful, but 99% of them won't prove it, because they are lying and their ego won't allow them to be honest. You actually are doing it, and that means a lot to many people, myself included. Both in your wins and in your losses, you are honest and that alone is priceless in this community when so many simply are not and are only after an ego boost or a buck.

You don't owe anything to anyone, but your generosity in sharing lifts my spirits and encourages me to keep going when I have a bad day. You have no idea how many times I've had my head hung low after a bad day, and then I look at your journal, and seeing your success gives me the motivation to pick myself up and keep going.


Josh, thanks.

 
  #1652 (permalink)
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josh View Post
It will be interesting to see what happens tonight at 1am EST, if anything, when the PSI results are made official. Has the market already priced it in, as reports today were saying there was 85-90% cooperation, and thus they will "sell the news," or will there be a big push up, ahead of NFP too? I am in a sim long 4 @ 66.25 trade, as I knew I would hold it overnight and don't do that normally with actual money. It will be fun to see what happens. Maybe being long ahead of this is a bad idea, but I sure wouldn't want to be short. With just two hours to go, the market certainly has not reversed strongly, not yet anyway...

I look for trades I can recreate over and over. That single goal may be the biggest thing that keeps me out of large swings. But, crude will give 30-60 ticks, day in and day out. Linear $2 moves are no where near as commonplace, although they do occur, and I wish I could harness them. But for now I leave money on the table often, but I am looking for consistency. I solidified that thought just this past weekend, after months of pushing myself to go for longer waves. Consistency can make any dollar amount imaginable. It's just not as sexy.

Trading ahead of news seems hard for me to have expectation of consistency. What will the news be? How will the market react? Is this news priced in? Will my interpretation of that news be the same as that of those who move the markets?

It is hard for me to maintain that I am a technical trader and trade what I cannot see.

My luck with pre-news trades has not been anything I would rely on. I have thought I was going to catch a great news trade, so many times, but I finally figured out I do much better letting the reaction happen, and then making a trading decision. I can "read" reaction, but have no idea how to do that before the reaction. I see news sometimes I think would be great, and the market crashes, or news I consider bad, and the market goes straight up. News is just not my thing, and I have actually trained myself to ignore it.

Of course, there are times when that does not make sense either. The recent issues with Iran and their effect on crude prices are a good example. I was reminded a couple times to not ignore news to the point of being naive. And if something ever does happen there to let the market know one way or another what is to come, I expect to have an opinion on tha that I most likely will tradet. But even then, my triger will probably be something I can see.

I don't know. Could be an incredible opportunity. Don't let me talk you out of it. I mostly watch ES on a 15 minute this year, just enough to see what the mood is, and really have not paid that much attention other than that. ES seemed skyward bound today. There is a solid trendline in place. It paused at the 786, but next stop could be over the top. Tighten your stop to what is a reasonable place to you, and let it run if it tries.

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  #1653 (permalink)
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NG lost strength again. How low can this market go? $1? Lower?

 
  #1654 (permalink)
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Resistance in CL held overnight, and the reaction to the decision regarding Greece was minimal (except in the Euro). ES is has nearly flatlined overnight. (The red trendline in the 120 min chart above represents a line that exists on the daily chart, below)

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CL managed to break to a slightly higher high around 1am EST, but quickly fell back into the channel that it formed for most of yesterday's session.

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On a 6 range chart, CL has met the resistance zone (red area on the 120 minute) three times so far and been rejected. The green horizontal dashed line represents the original high that was set early yesterday morning, which was broken with no follow through around noo yesterday, and that high was again broken with no participation overnight.

 
  #1656 (permalink)
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The following comes from Larry Levin's Trading Advantage Day Trading Futures | Learn How to Trade | Secrets of Traders newsletter this morning. I enjoy reading his thoughts on current events and thought this was clever;




COSTELLO: I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America.

ABBOTT: Good Subject. Terrible Times. It's 9%.

COSTELLO: That many people are out of work?

ABBOTT: No, that's 16%.

COSTELLO: You just said 9%.

ABBOTT: 9% Unemployed.

COSTELLO: Right 9% out of work.

ABBOTT: No, that's 16%.

COSTELLO: Okay, so it's 16% unemployed.

ABBOTT: No, that's 9%...

COSTELLO: WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 9% or 16%?

ABBOTT: 9% are unemployed. 16% are out of work.

COSTELLO: IF you are out of work you are unemployed.

ABBOTT: No, you can't count the "Out of Work" as the unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed.

COSTELLO: BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK!!!

ABBOTT: No, you miss my point.

COSTELLO: What point?

ABBOTT: Someone who doesn't look for work can't be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn't be fair.

COSTELLO: To whom?

ABBOTT: The unemployed.

COSTELLO: But they are ALL out of work.

ABBOTT: No, the unemployed are actively looking for work... Those who are out of work stopped looking. They gave up. And, if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed.

COSTELLO: So if you're off the unemployment roles, that would count as less unemployment?

ABBOTT: Unemployment would go down. Absolutely!

COSTELLO: The unemployment just goes down because you don't look for work?

ABBOTT: Absolutely it goes down. That's how you get to 9%. Otherwise, it would be 16%. You don't want to read about 16% unemployment do ya?

COSTELLO: That would be frightening.

ABBOTT: Absolutely.

COSTELLO: Wait, I got a question for you. That means there are two ways to bring down the unemployment number?

ABBOTT: Two ways is correct.

COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?

ABBOTT: Correct.

COSTELLO: And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job?

ABBOTT: Bingo.

COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to just stop looking for work.

ABBOTT: Now you're thinking like an economist.

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  #1657 (permalink)
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The jobs number created a temporary new high on impressive volume, but I was most intrigued with the force of the following rejection. That was a test of the daily trendline.

 
  #1658 (permalink)
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I entered short at 106.84, but then stepped out at +9. I can't get out of my head that it is Friday and the larger trend is still up. It would have been a great trade, but the 9:30am open is coming. Crude then caught just below the 382, but the volume was so-so.

There is a lot of confluence still in the 105.50 area,

6E fell off a cliff, and I am watching that as well. The short may have been my best trade for the day, that never gt to mature. I also received a phone call just as I took it, and tha always shakes my focus and I prefer to get flat. It is hard for me to concentrate on what I am saying on the phone and watch my position at the same time.

 
  #1659 (permalink)
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I am up 15 ticks, but not sure I understand why. What a ricochet market. I saw weakness in the 107.70 range, but would question my sanity to short this right now. Some days I just don't get it, and today may be one. I'm taking a break and considering myself lucky to be up for the day.

 
  #1660 (permalink)
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nice uptrend...buy the dips

triple top? 107.65 almost.

down you pig!

After a big move CL usually stalls into rangebound...then again....


Last edited by Sunil P; March 9th, 2012 at 11:14 AM.
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