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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #1531 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
Once that high of 107.27 was not broken, I had a good idea, more downside was needed. I was -29ticks on full size before the DOE report (stupid).


Were you in through the report? That is something I have not allowed myself to do since I dropped a couple thousand one day several years back by trying to make sense of the movement around the EIA window. Got nailed several times in a row. Up? Down? Up? lol! I now wait and let it sort itself out some.





Deucalion View Post
As I trade more, it not the ability to just make my daily bread that's the aim. It is the opportunites to lever UP when others are in pain. That for me is the grail (no matter how infrequently they happen, 2 - 3 times a month is enough to change the whole month, or even the whole year)

That is exactly where I was at the end of the day, but a much different entry area and goal. It seemed nearly blatant that traders were hitting the wrong side after a major support reversal as impressive as we saw. It is incredibly rare for me to go in 3 contracts strong, but in those rare moments where there is almost a light flashing...



I saw something else on your charts that I wish I had; the text that is listing your contracts traded and result right on the screen. I'm going to have to look into those add-ons you mentioned before.

Are you going for the potential daily swing on this move? I am wanting to, but on reversals like today's always have a hard time deciding where to get in. A breakout above 107.50 maybe.

 
  #1532 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
Were you in through the report? That is something I have not allowed myself to do since I dropped a couple thousand one day several years back by trying to make sense of the movement around the EIA window. Got nailed several times in a row. Up? Down? Up? lol! I now wait and let it sort itself out some.

That is exactly where I was at the end of the day, but a much different entry area and goal. It seemed nearly blatant that traders were hitting the wrong side after a major support reversal as impressive as we saw. It is incredibly rare for me to go in 3 contracts strong, but in those rare moments where there is almost a light flashing...

I saw something else on your charts that I wish I had; the text that is listing your contracts traded and result right on the screen. I'm going to have to look into those add-ons you mentioned before.

Are you going for the potential daily swing on this move? I am wanting to, but on reversals like today's always have a hard time deciding where to get in. A breakout above 107.50 maybe.

No, I was already down before the report. I sat the report out completely because 107.2 swing failed much before, i already knew that more downside was coming and that automatically meant 105.40 which we talked about.

Position sizing - MTP's real USP. Don't read much into the sizes, I just use the levels to leverage my own sizes, which are bigger than what you see. No swing here I made enough today to call it a banner month. Oil has lost it's strength. I am looking to 103 first. Not going to change my swing view yet.


Edit 252PM EST - this is what I saw......chart is plain...reinstalling Ninja...some errors coming up...HATE HATE ninja...retail tool nonsense....won't even load ticks bars correctly...when i compare with Multicharts or Ensign..one realizes how clumsy and oafish it is...by end of this year I want to be done with it...fingers crossed....and move onto CQG or Photon along with Ensign.

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Last edited by Deucalion; February 29th, 2012 at 03:57 PM. Reason: Added content
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  #1533 (permalink)
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I did not even see this near perfect abc long after the initial move up into resistance at 107/107.20. Typical price symmetry. Good for 54ticks (single car) or 80ticks with runner. That is my 2nd favourite trade. But for tomorrow - I want to see price behaviour in the zone 107.63 - 107.92 (unless than happens tonight). One thing is for sure - I will not look for huge trades tomorrow after the market spent so much energy today with the downside and upside. Rhythms are critical to me (rightly or wrongly). If market is an extension of humans (which it is) - bursts of energy are not often followed with more bursts of energy (in the absence of big news). Relatvely speaking of course.

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  #1534 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
Don't do it. You already have the skill and the ability. I sat around looking at other traders...seeing how they were making more ticks than me....and I started messing with myself....that messed my head...I was taking chances that were not intrinsic to me......A tiger will not hunt like a lion, or a cheetah or an eagle....."

The importance of this is slowly dawning upon me....I look at my record over the past 3years (it pays to trade as myself) no matter how slow and un-skilled that maybe be. I can't emulate others...either I don't have that skill or the time is not right.....There are plenty of skilled traders here....what makes me tickle is that...I can make a good living by being my imperfect self...The road to an illusion is a nasty slide to self destruction.....self destruction is my worst enemy....Dr B has said that over and over again.......


What bothers me the most about my trading is that I won't take the next step. I posted a chart of two support zones several days ago, maybe a week. One was colored blue, the other green. I referenced that chart many times afterwards, saying the blue zone was "so-so" but the green zone was really where the best place to buy would be. But then when price enters that area it does it by falling like a brick, and causes me to have doubt. But, the reversal that followed the 5500 contract bar should have told me to go in. I had the strongest support zone on the chart behind me to back me up, but wanted more. I wanted a low-volume retest, a 618 retrace, anything to say this is the place. But I already said "this is the place" for several days, and was slow to react.

The worst thing that could have happened was I took a loss, and that does not bother me other times. I was not able to stand in the face of a charging market and say with confidence that here is where I am pulling the trigger, but obviously that is where a lot of more seasoned traders did.

Yes, I have learned to survive. I do have my own little niche and can stay out of trouble. I learned to trade by making a lot of mistakes, and as I have slowly figured out how to stop making the same ones over and over, it has put barriers around my trading actions that do not exist in my trading beliefs. Ironically, one of the mistakes I learned to correct was not stepping in front of runaway trains...

But for some reason I dream of catching the perfect turn and riding it to the end, and I never seem to be able to break out of my own resistance, my own boundaries of a comfort zone. And some days, like today, I look back and would have preferred to have taken one single trade in that tiny green box and walked away, rather than have taken any of the other trades, even if the profit on the one was less.

I spent a lot of time over the years constructing elaborate studies of risk versus reward, and have spent years learning to define where some of the "best" trades might occur. I have also spent countless hours learning how to just survive, which for me has meant being nimble, being willing to change my mind quickly. And now I seem incapable of getting all of the parts functioning together at good efficiency. My deeper beliefs, my screen time experience, and my chart analysis skills, are not in harmony with one another to the degree that I want them to be.

I don't mean to say I am unhappy with myself or where I have gotten. But I keep wanting to push myself through this internal disconnect, and I believe getting it out is part of that process. It must be a turn-off to newer traders who might read something like this and think, this guy's whining and he made money today!

My belief is that this written record of my personal struggles keeps me moving forward. I do go back to it often and see where I was mentally, what I did right and wrong. I may be replying to your post, but really I am replying to both of us. When it comes down to it, I really only have myself to talk with when it comes to shaping my trading. Even though I write things like this out in a journal over and over, the mind is such a tough thing to reconfigure. It is a constant pursuit.

Thanks for your post. Thanks for your insight over the past few weeks / months. Good trading today.

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  #1535 (permalink)
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....There are two major support areas I am watching, the blue zone is so-so, but would be where crude will take hold if it is still in the mood to run. The green support zone is really what I would like to see, as it has higher timeframe significance. That zone is more of a make or break area, and may present a swing opportunity.


From earlier. This is an example of the frustration I was mentioning with a conflict between my analysis and my execution.

 
  #1536 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
If I really traded the ES I would like to find a place to short it, just from a personal viewpoint more than a technical one. I may play with that some and set a wide swing. I don't really like trading the ES though. Yesterday the S&P hit 1374. Maybe this post alone will serve as my paper trade.


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Paper trade considered closed.

 
  #1537 (permalink)
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Your issues are mine.......I fear loss, I analyse well (I think) but do not execute, other times I over step myself. I only found 2 ways to change that - one was to keep the daily in front of me at all times, that gives you perspective where the real levels are, and the other was to reduce size. Overcoming the fear of loss and attachment to a position are the only hurdles between me and cognisant professional trading...I have made progress in 2years, its slow....it changes a man....and the answers are not here... they are in my personal life. I have to let go....of everything....stop attaching myself...I am envious of the people who can do this well.....they are truly in control, while seeming to be buffeted by the tides of life. Bruce Lee said it well...about being like water.

True control is only when you give up, surrender to the market..it's hard...often coming only via great financial losses (something I am familiar with). Don't know what else to say.....except that in moments of great introspection I occasionally find great nuggets of use. Truly realizing how powerless we are to the market is humbling and very empowering. Only then, was I able to take some trades that were of that nature....the best one was during one of the DOE reports in fall last year, it was a 25tick stop with a 140tick gain...on one car...it was worth it...it paid...it was painful. Taking those trades is always hard...and I fail most times to do it...but compared to 2years ago I have taken several WTF trades (almost ALL of which worked)..so it's good progress nevertheless (guess that belongs in the category of changing habits)

BTW - past couple fo posts I said something about levels and weakness on CL. I take that back.....once again I stopped looking at the Daily. This is what i really think....
  1. All we have done is come back into the support zone (minimum wave target), working off an overbought condition...on a trading instrument like CL I would easily expect the typical wave to be approached (116ish).
  2. That pin bar today (daily) is telling...buyers like 105, while we may see 103 still....the bullish case is very much intact. I wouldn't be surprisd to see a runaway day tomorrow as followthrough to that pin bar.

The USd rose today, I think that's a red herring....it hasn't even come close to support, which is at least 77.
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EDIT 733PM EST - one other thing I found therapeutic for some inexplicable reason is paying myself (even small amounts) after a month, or every bi-monthly. For me, it subconsciously re-asserts the notion that this is a business, not a hobby or addiction. It was a serendipitous discovery.


Last edited by Deucalion; February 29th, 2012 at 08:34 PM. Reason: Added content
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  #1538 (permalink)
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Today's turn occured almost to the tick at a 100% of W1 on the 5WM. And the resulting move up was very impressive. I am now very hesitant to short this market.

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If I could pick an entry point that felt "solid" it would be the LSP shown in yellow. But, based on the momentum today, I may not get that option.
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  #1539 (permalink)
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There is somethig quite odd about how often most things are contradictions.
We see them from the mundane to the profound, but in the sense of letting go, they can perhaps make the most sense.

Resistance is the opportunity of/to change, like the points on a chart or the moments/events in our lives.
How we respond to that resistance does one of two things to our trade balance in trading or our life.
Either it keeps us in the same place or it sets us free.

The setting free is the letting go, that has been mentioned.

In trading it is the resistance that has let go, it has given way and in that action, that change, it has become support.
Similarly in our lives, it is the letting go of resistance to change that sets us free.

But what is the change that we are letting go of ?
Perhaps it is letting go of the fear of loss, the fear or failure, the fear of success, the list is many and it is our own.

But what is our own ?

Perhpas if we can realize that if we have the awarness to see resistance
(which we do because we are aware of it, even though we may not understand what it is
or why) but by the sheer act of being aware of it, we realize that all that we are,
all that we think and feel and believe we are, is not really us ?


If all of that "stuff" was us then would we have any resistance ?

This is another of those contradictions..
Some examples have been given, in honesty and earnest and sincerity,
ie: the I that I believed was me wanted to take the trade but the I that I believed was me did not.
The I that I believe is me is fearfull but that is not the I that I want to be.

So there is resistance.
But it is resistance between who we believe we are and who ends up turning up to meet the moment.

What if, we had a choice ?
Well we know which I we would choose.
We would choose to be the I that took that trade then, or the I that was not fearful.

So we think, fine, but how can I be the I I want to be when I want to be it ?

The simple truth is that we have a choice.
But it involves what may appear to be another contradiction.
The contradiction is that if I can separate the I, I belive I am or want to be,
from the reistance that the I is seeing before me at this moment, then how is it that there are two of me ?

And as there are two of me doesn't that suggest that I am choosing to be one of them that meets this moment ?
Either the I that resists or the I that lets go ?

So what ever we may think of feel or believe, we are not these things.
If we were, then there would be nothing to choose between.
There would be no resistance between who we want to be and who is actually meeting this moment.

Something, the thing that we are is even more than those two choices.
We are the sum total of everything that exists from which we are free to choose.


The I that meets this moment is the I that we choose.

However, we need to be free to choose. free from all the resistance.

The only true freedom is to let go of being any one thing,
(be that letting go of fear, letting go of being the trader who did not take the trade).

We do not there for, imo, need to spend a moments time, or thought on trying to work out what needs to be changed,
the whys or where fors becasue we can see that only by letting go of these very things, can we be free.

It may seem like a contradinction again.
How, in order to be free to choose who the I is that meets this moment,
can I let go of the very things that stop me from choosing who the I is that meets this moment.

Again, perhaps the I that we think we are is not really us.
It can't be if we see a possible other I to choose from.

And around we go until we realize, that in this moment, in any given moment we have a choice as to who meets this moment.

Just choose.
Or rather, become aware that we are always choosing,
so that in this new momant inwhich to choose, we can choose
to let go of the hand of the I that we chose before.

In that very moment, by the act of letting go, we become aware that the holding on was the resistance,
The very act of letting go created a new I, one that we decided we would be.
We are free by letting go of who we thought or believed or felt we were.
We invoke becoming by and in the very action and awareness of letting go.

And we are something new in this moment.
A new I that is meeting this next moment.
We are an I that we have chosen to meet this new moment.

We made a choice.
We chose.
We became.

And again we have the choice, but the resistance has now become support
giving us courage to always be that which is free to choose the I that meets each and every moment.
The courage because we have the proof, because it is that which we are doing.

We become aware, we see the strenght in letting go of who we thought we were...
becasue we now know we can choose who we are in this moment.


Just my thoughts and gratefull for the space to be able to express them.
Hoping they are not an intrusion and of some help...

Kind regards
.

Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile...

Last edited by zt379; March 1st, 2012 at 01:31 PM.
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  #1540 (permalink)
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zt379 View Post
Just my thoughts and gratefull for the space to be able to express them.
Hoping they are not an intrusion and of some help...


Very helpful in giving me a different perspective. That post has been going through my head since I saw it last night, and has caused me to see some things.

I came to trading with no experience, and as I gained experience, that shaped my view. Now I am constrained by my own view. The first thing I learned to do was to scalp, and that lead to an intense focus on being quick to react and reading volume at a minute level. I then added the lessons in chart analysis to keep me on the right side and to go for larger moves, but really what I do today is, in my mind, still scalping, just larger scalps. I decided to keep it small, 30-50 ticks, go for the averages. It made me feel more likely to succeed, and that I felt was a large part of being able to actually pull it off.

Because the style I shaped became profitable, I am being rewarded for that type of trading, and so it has me pinned in. Meanwhile, as my knowledge and experience continues to increase, I see another trader that I would prefer to be, but now have a habit that has taken hold. And when my mind competes between the known profitablilty of a way I want to change versus the perceived profitability of a different style, what I think I want has a hard time winning.

If I had to start over in trading, I would learn chart analysis first and scalping techniques second. That way the knowledge would build upon itself in what I now believe to be the correct order.

I considered separating my charts into two sides and allowing the "two traders" to compete. But really what I want is for them to trade as one, each bringing their individual strengths to the table.

Thanks for a great post zt. Glad you are still watching.

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