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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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Deucalion View Post
I thought I had done well taking 30ticks on my first trade and closing shop, only to see this beautiful pattern eventually develop. It has sliced though the typical wave target and there is no sign of a positive momentum divergence yet......I want to see a HH before I take the next trade on the long side.


You beat my $12.50.

I went short aomewhere around 108.40 and then changed my mind, deciding to wait for the long as a part of my psychological reconstructing. I have gotten my head all messed up with the recent traveling and resulting trade withdrawal.

I will allow a long here though, especially after seeing how today's price action added a wave to the story/

 
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I see what you mean. I may be using the wrong move to see the wave extensions, because if I use the previous one (which is technically more correct) then the W3 has been reached. Keep that support on the daily at 105.43 in mind. 2 divergent views, intra day I think solid longs are possible tonight, other wise you can see damage on the daily.

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On the daily, I don't see much in traditional structure until 104.50. But, the light blue lines are the prior closes. Something I have been wathcing lately.


Last edited by GaryD; February 28th, 2012 at 08:34 PM.
 
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..intra day I think solid longs are possible tonight ...

You go first.

lol

 
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While that did make me laugh out loud at myself, seriously, I may enter one QM long. Waiting to see if the Asian opens blow stops.

Really, I don;t know if that is what occurs. But I do see an occurence of sudden bursts of volume at their opens sometimes after a significant move.

 
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I think the Hong Kong official open is 9pm EST

 
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We might have already ssen a reaction....the lower zone was tested and rejected...it was without making a HH. And that makes it suspect...So no go for me. Do you see the no confimartion with USD (whihc continues lower but CL is not making new highs.....why?)

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Time for hockey...and lather, rinse, repeat tomorrow.

 
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Surly View Post
Tom does a daily letter as well - here's the link in case you're interested (this is a free newsletter):

Subscribe: Subscribe

I just signed up. Thanks again!

I read the report dated 2-27 and liked the scope he covered. I also spent some time reading though their website, researching the concept of "peak oil", followed it through to Wikipedia, etc. It was interesting.

 
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We might have already ssen a reaction....the lower zone was tested and rejected...it was without making a HH. And that makes it suspect...So no go for me. Do you see the no confimartion with USD (whihc continues lower but CL is not making new highs.....why?)

Time for hockey...and lather, rinse, repeat tomorrow.

Yeah, I was thinking something similar. As much as this area has going for it to me, what it lacks is timing. If I went for purely risk/reward trades, this is a possible major turning point. But I don't rely on that alone, and I use volume for nearly everything. At night that element tells me nothing, which is why I seldmom take an overnight position. If we had a possible double bottom at 104.50 I'd be long already...

I am doing other things around the house right now. Going to open a beer, carry my laptop with me to the couch and then to bed, as is the normal routine for me when I am tracking a turn.

But whether I enter at 9:30pm or 3:30am or 8:30am, I won't know until I see it. Or if I see it. The only one I know for sure I'll be watching is the US open and also the EIA.

 
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I just signed up. Thanks again!

I read the report dated 2-27 and liked the scope he covered. I also spent some time reading though their website, researching the concept of "peak oil", followed it through to Wikipedia, etc. It was interesting.

I am a drilling engineer by profession (kinda retired now from that and doing this), spent 12years in all kinds of places - up in the Canadian North, Mexico, Bolivia, Nigeria, Northern Africa (all of them)....Middle East (too many to list)....specialty being enhanced recovery of OOIP, depleted reservoir stimulation and under-balanced drilling, as well as extended reach horizontal drilling with multi stage completions and all sorts of boring stuff like that. When someone in our peer group reads stuff written for retail consumption it is hard for us not to be skeptical. So much is glossed over...so hard to understand the nuances of what's critical and what's fluff. Plus the bias of the writer. The best example of public deception and garbage is Cambridge House (and Daniel Yergin)...their stuff is just technical enough to be credible and biased enough to further their own agenda.

Oil Drum is one of the best, if you are well and truly interested in reading about Peak Oil. What does it have to do with trading...not a thing! unless your time frames are laaaaaarge!

It's a fascinating subject, but I am biased of course )


Edit: 2110PM EST - here is another market lesson for me....instead of overthinking it and talking about it, should have simply traded it (on QM).......It was 50/50.....with a 20tick stop and a 100tick traget....and looks like it is doing so......

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Last edited by Deucalion; February 28th, 2012 at 10:09 PM.
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