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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets


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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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  #1491 (permalink)
 Surly 
denver, colorado
 
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GaryD View Post
NT closed, main computer shut down.


I did subscribe to the newsletter I believe Surly mentioned. I hope it is ok to post here. The news is significant in the movement if crude right now, and so I feel it is appropriate to document pieces of it here and there.

Current newsletter attached.

Tom does a daily letter as well - here's the link in case you're interested (this is a free newsletter):

Subscribe: Subscribe

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  #1492 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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This is the worst part of trading to me. I am wanting to buy so bad, but it is 13 minute before the pit close and that can be like a washing machine...

I did at least scalp at the bottom, 106.40 ish, t get my silly 5 ticks back, plus $12.50 for commissions, and the rest I will blow on myself.

But, this is a buy for me if it holds tomorrow. I said previously there was really no significant support until this area, but we are there. If only the "24 hour market" was the same for all the 24 hours.

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 GaryD 
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I really like this reaction at 106.50. I am debating going long regardless.

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  #1494 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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4:53pm - I resisted the desire to go long at 106.50. The timing was not right. I am at my best during normal volume condiitons, and at my worst during the time between 2:30pm and 6:00pm. The overnight session is somewhere in between.

As I type this price has returned again to below 106.50, and is currently offered at 106.54. Price does not matter now. I will wait for a better confirmation, but I am buy ready, as long as the base holds.


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  #1495 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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 Deucalion 
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I thought I had done well taking 30ticks on my first trade and closing shop, only to see this beautiful pattern eventually develop. It has sliced though the typical wave target and there is no sign of a positive momentum divergence yet......I want to see a HH before I take the next trade on the long side.


 
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  #1497 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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No buy as of yet on the 6 range, and the 9 range is currently below the trigger MA as well. On the daily chart the major support is still further beow by about $2, and as I go through my thoughts on this zone, I referred to it as "so-so". Therefore, at a minimum I need a firm reversal. Next preference would be volume confirmation, but until 8am that is going to be tough.

If this were the daily major support zone I would be more likely to go in overnight. I did like to intense volume at 106.50, and am somewhat discounting that when crude re-opened it burst down to 106.20 briefly. Such is night open movement.

I don't leave Orlando for the rest of the week and am kind of enjoying not having to take a trade, but being able to stalk one.

Tomorrow is the EIA, and that should provide at least two solid moves. The first I am expecting to be before the report, then condolidation leading into the time window, then the second move after. I may take this zone more than once if it looks like it is holding.

One of the decisions I made for my trade areas was to focus on potential major turning points. Whether they actually turn for any real significant swing does not matter so much to me when I am going for a day trade. What matters is the perception of a potential move that generates enough reaction to push the market.

50-100 ticks is all I need to stay in my little groove, and that happpens every day. When I could watch 5 days a week, I could count on catching that roughly 3 days a week. The frequency of that trade condition allowed me to have more faith in the next opportunity. In contrast, if I were going for $5 moves, the time to setup and the time to wait for the next opportunity takes longer, and I have found weighs on my confidence. I have also seen recently that my inability to guarantee my trade days in advance has had a significant negative effect on my confidence.

To trade at my best, I need to be able to trade when the conditions present themselves, not just when I have a few hours here and there. I have also seen that even if I have 3 days in a row, that is still not enough to feel completely in sync with what is going on, which also lowers my confidence a notch or two. IN the past, a down week was no bg deal, I knew without a doubt that the next week was loaded with opportunities. Sitting here now, I know next week I have no time to trade. And I feel that inside somewhere.

Crude has come 40 cents off the low set at the 6pm open.

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  #1498 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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Deucalion View Post
I thought I had done well taking 30ticks on my first trade and closing shop, only to see this beautiful pattern eventually develop. It has sliced though the typical wave target and there is no sign of a positive momentum divergence yet......I want to see a HH before I take the next trade on the long side.


That is basically what the 6-range reversal requires, but without thinking of it that way. For the reversal to be perfect, price must break out significantly above the t3s and then return to a channel. Many times that means it also set a higher high, but not always. There is currently a t3 crossover on the 6, which shows that there was a HH earlier. Had the move down to this area occured at noon instead of 2:30pm, it would have most likely already told us something to decide on.

Right now the upside breakout on the 6-range is 106.90

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  #1499 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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Deucalion View Post
I thought I had done well taking 30ticks on my first trade and closing shop, only to see this beautiful pattern eventually develop. It has sliced though the typical wave target and there is no sign of a positive momentum divergence yet......I want to see a HH before I take the next trade on the long side.


Here is something I just noticed.











Forgetting all the other fibs, taking the 78.6 of the prior wave up, the 100% APP of the wave A, and the 162 of wave B, the "zone" is 106.12 - 106.41.


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 GaryD 
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