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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #1451 (permalink)
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The 786 retracement of the major move down seems to stand alone to me tonight as the last major defender in a long list of resistance casualties. It may also prove to be just another colored line of technical doubt in this recent run up.

 
  #1452 (permalink)
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Resistance did make a valid effort to push the market back, and would have provided several good short trades for 50 ticks +/-, but the momentum on the way up made shorting difficult to feel confident about, without additional confirmation of reversal. And once the confirmation came, the bulk of the downward move was exhausted. Even a $1 move lower was too enticing to pass up for an abundance of buyers hoping to ride this wave to infinity.

When resistance broke today it did so on a burst of energy, and it became obvious the zone ran out of strength (sellers were taken out or had a change of opinion). The intensity of the resulting move to the 108.50 area may have just formed the pole of a flag or pennant. If correct, a break above the top end of this new area could easily see a move into the 110s, minimum (prior dual pivot), or a measured move of the prior run, or beyond. Playing with some upside targets this evening yielded results into the 130 range (although my background to date has difficulty accepting that distance).

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While I am not as comfortable in these conditions as I am a frequently reversing market, until the intermediate trendline of this move lets go, I am quickly gaining respect for the trend that has taken over.


Last edited by GaryD; February 24th, 2012 at 03:33 AM.
 
  #1453 (permalink)
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I had shorted the 240M at 101.85 on QM (a couple of cars)....that big bar took me right out (lost 48ticks there)

Long at that inside bar at 10285 on another couple on QM and maybe I should have kept it until the next wave target at 116 instead of taking it off at 106 (it just kept hanging around... although looking at the 60M which you posted I should have seen that coming...but one step at a time)...It was still worth 252 QM ticks.

....still a learning curve on this overnight swing trade stuff. The original thinking a few posts back was correct (as you pointed out).....That massive inverted HNS is UP! I also see no Resistance on ES until 1450, unless price action reverses.

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Edit (0405EST) - I take that 116 back, on this TF it pays to watch the DX....approaching a zone of interest 77.50 - 78.

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Last edited by Deucalion; February 24th, 2012 at 05:08 AM. Reason: Added content
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  #1454 (permalink)
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That 3800 contract bar has the appearance of a washout of the sotops overhead, but given crude's relentless upward run I am not touching it. My charts currently say "buy", but for some reason it is not registering with me. I feel confused more than confident, and that means hands off.

This market is outside of my understanding right now. I have witnessed impulse markets before, but it is not the normal condition, and so my ability to read what is happening is greatly compromised as the frequency of previous experiences is somewhat lacking.

I have traded flat to lower over the past week or so, and that on top of not being able to sit in one city for any more than a few days has gotten me to feel out of rhythm. I am in Orlando for the day and have little to distract me today, but I may still just enjoy watching this market. I am keeping my option open to take a trade before 2:30pm, but not counting on it.

 
  #1455 (permalink)
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My instincts were correct, but I was not willing to go short.

 
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Double washout today. Still flat.

 
  #1457 (permalink)
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  #1458 (permalink)
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No trades attempted today. I realize it seemed obvious that the market was headed higher after the return to the top, but to me it was more important to hve an opinion of what was most likely to occur, and then just watch it to see if I was on target. I am really more interested in getting back into a calm zone in myself, and so my "trades" were more in my head today. "I think that was a washout above the market, prices are coming down", "The market bottomed after taking out the stops below and should take out the high now", etc.

I WANTED to take a trade today; I leave for Boston on Monday, and then back to DC, so next week is probably off limits. Today may be the only "free" day I had. But I have not found my need to trade to be a calm place.

It was not a matter of trying to profit from it today, but more treating as a non-event, and building my quiet zone back again. Between my movements and crude's movements, a lot of ground has been covered in the past few weeks. That seems to have us both shaken up some.

I would really like to see a sudden resolution to the Iran fears...

 
  #1459 (permalink)
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monaco357

good boy grasshopper. you need to be in your good place before you buy, wait until you get back off the road OR the market drops below $104.00 then im all in with you.

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