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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #1441 (permalink)
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I could not find any reason to enter the trade at the top, other than a volume bar. I actually expected it to make one more push higher and remove the stops around 106.50 before turning. But that area has been rejected and price just made enough of a move to be considering this a 6 range crossover. Still flat all day, but my meeting was canceled and moved to tomorrow so I am just watching.

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Closed -21

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  #1446 (permalink)
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After they chased the shorts out before the pit close, crude fell right back down again.

Net 1 trade short -21 ticks.

I had a positive of roughly the same amount but did not close the trade. Once price rand back up into the resistance area I had a pretty good clue shorts were on the run, myself included. There was no reason to allow my stop to get hit once I realized I was wrong.

I came very close to shorting earlier in the day at the volume signal, but I wanted crude to take out the high first, or to give a good divergence signal, and it never did either one. I am wondering now if that final burst was not the washout move above the prior high that I had been expecting to occur earlier in the day. Price does not like it up there yet.

 
  #1447 (permalink)
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In theory, we have a 23.25 hour-a-day market in crude oil futures, but in reality that is broken into tiny sub-sections. The major borders form around keys times of openings, closes, and news releases. Today I stalked a short trade but did not receive enough confirmation until it was getting close to the pit close. At that point many traders start to plan their exits, and apparently today there were a large number of short-side traders who were run out of the market before 2:30pm EST.

And then the normal supply/demand could resume.

I have traded long enough that I understand this, accept it, sometimes profit from it, but I still am sometimes frustrated by it, as I was today. After the shorts were chased out, price returned right back to where it was before; below 106.00.

The upwards pressure on crude that is generated by the potential for supply issues from Iran has caused crude to move in a manner that is not "typical", and I am starting to believe that more seasoned traders are aware of this, and taking advantage of it. That part I am not upset by, as I am also one who hopes to take advantage of certain situations, and am completely that if I make money, someone else lost it for me.

I know that there is incredible manipulation that revolves around the daily sentiment, but had chosen the path of techincal trader and as such made a vow to ignore the news. What I may be learning is that there is a "technical" side to news, adding a percentage potential to certain events.

I'm not really upset. That is too strong of a word. I got nailed for 21 ticks, not a big deal. What I guess is disappointing to me is that I was gullible today. The fact that crude is overdue for a pullback does not matter. The fact that crude moved differently before does not matter.

I am hesitant to buy based on my past experiences, but those only span a few years back. Crude prices are far older than I am.

Ignoring news and fundamentals is not the right choice, entirely. Possibly, understanding which news to ignore might be.

But without being concerned about the dollar amount, the market is trying to teach me something new. I can listen, or continue to pay for my education.

I still find myself almost instinctively wanting to short this market, but may be digesting something different. And from that perspective I am almost thankful for my loss today.

If it opened my eyes, it was well worth the price, cheap even...


Last edited by GaryD; February 22nd, 2012 at 10:34 PM. Reason: typos / clarity
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  #1448 (permalink)
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oil news

Gary - don't know if you'd be interested in this at all but energybulletin.net has a free daily and weekly newsletter that summarizes developments in oil. Fundamentals might just confuse your approach but I thought I'd post in case you were into it. I attached the most recent weekly newsletter - I believe this link should allow you to subscribe if interested: Subscribe

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets-peak-oil-review-120220.pdf  
 
  #1449 (permalink)
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Surly View Post
Gary - don't know if you'd be interested in this at all but energybulletin.net has a free daily and weekly newsletter that summarizes developments in oil. Fundamentals might just confuse your approach but I thought I'd post in case you were into it. I attached the most recent weekly newsletter - I believe this link should allow you to subscribe if interested: Subscribe

That's very nice Surly. I will subscribe to it from my other computer when I get settled again. Thanks.

 
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The chart below is a beautiful move. I love just seeing moves like this, even after the fact. Not a single black bar after the oil report, and there were two excellent entry areas before it blasted off.

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I was not able to watch the market today, had meetings in Fredericksburg, then drove back to DC for a flight home to Orlando. I did see the selloff around 8:30 in the morning, which I attributed to traders locking in before the 11am EIA. Apparently they thought the report went well though. A $3+ run is impressive. Now, if only I was not ready to short it...


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