I've made a new rule for my trading. As much as I hate to do it.
If I am going to trade on the road, it will be a single entry and exit, and only on a trade that I would walk away from.
Those trades are few and far between, and finding one when I only have an hour to watch may be very difficult. But, that is the new rule that I feel I need based on my current travel schedule and my recent new understanding of myself. That rule allows me to take the best of the best, but nothing more.
I have learned that my entire approach to trading shifts just by being in a rush, being preoccupied with other things, and being limited to a laptop screen.
I do not believe in scalping from a risk to reward ratio. Profitable or not, it is driven by adrenaline, ego, greed. And when I do it I am not anywhere near relaxed. I trade to make money, but not to gamble, and that is really what I feel scalping is. "Trading" is something completely different.
I felt like I was going backwards in my training by scalping again, and the profits felt tainted. I made money, and then felt guilty for being so caught up in it. It went from something I was proud of to something nearly perverse. Drooling over an $80 hit. Embarrassing.
When I am out of town, that means I am already making money doing something other than trading. I fly out to DC again in the morning, then to Boston, then soon back to Houston, maybe passing through Orlando for a day or two. Just drove to Miami and back yesterday...
My plan is still to shift to trading full time, and I will some day soon. But right now I have something that is taking off, making money in a business that I have 5x more experience in. And that can build my available trading capital faster than I would want to build it by trading alone. 35% annual is a fairly easy target, but 350% annual is something I don't want to go through the drawdowns to get to.
I can still study the markets, sim if I must, and still capture significant moves with my new trading rule. So, I am still on the path to full-time trading, still have internet access to follow the markets, still have permission to take a great trade. And I am still making money either way.
Good rule. Good analysis of myself.
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Crude hit the wall of resistance posted Sunday at the pit close today, and has since made a 6-range reversal. If I were in Orlando, I would go short at the first touch of a DC with volume confirmation. This is a trade I like, regardless of trend, but not enough to not watch it because it is countertrend. If I could watch volume until it got going, or if I could watch volume to find where support might come in...
What I like about this type of trade;
1) The market stopped at a point of higher level resistance, defined several days ago.
2) Crude has had an impressive run up and even if it is to continue, may need a chance to rest.
3) The RISK is defined already. Above resistance. The potential reward could be 1.5 to 1, 2 to 1, 3 to 1, etc. The higher the DC the better risk to reward ratio, with a stop just above the high pivot.
Many times CL will make a retest, or even a washout of the prior high, and if I were able to trade it and got knocked out on a high volume stopping bar, I would re-enter again.
But, it is obvious to anyone it is countertrend right now, and so as it sits I would not walk away.
If it washes out before I leave the room tomorrow after 8am, I will most likely take it and hold. If not, there are so many more coming.
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Last edited by GaryD; February 21st, 2012 at 09:41 PM.
This type of setup gets my attention, and is possibly one of my favorites. If this were with the trend it would score enough to pass my new rule.
Markets turn abruptly as a normal event. Where they turn is typically at a pre-defined S/R area. What turns them is volume. When I get confirmation of 1) turning-potential volume in 2) a pre-defined area, and then get 3) a range-chart reversal, that is as good as it gets for me. My main focus for years has been trying to define the major turns. Whether this winds up being one or not, what is on the charts so far is what it looks like when it does work.
I have not booked my flight out of here to Boston yet, have no real schedule to get to Boston, and checkout is not until noon here in Fredericksburg. I'm going to watch this one for awhile in short-ready mode. I want to see the volume and if they are still interested in selling around this area.
Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.
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