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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets


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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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  #1421 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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  #1422 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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stop tightened. The trade was not strong enough to have such a wide stop.

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  #1423 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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closed -2

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  #1424 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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end of day:

Short +20
Short -2


Despite the fact that I had my plan set on finding a turning point in a market that only knows how to go up, I enjoyed being able to watch crude for the entire session today. One my first entry I had a valid signal, but did not like the lower donchian area after so much momentum to the upside leading into the trade. It turned out I left maybe another 10 ticks out there, but it did turn on me eventually.

The second trade was not so valid, as the market did not get to make a reversal before I entered. I set a threshold of breaking below the lower intermediate DC on volume, and then watched the market try to give me 10 ticks or so, but when it started to turn and I knew it was not the best entry I bailed at the first tick of red, market closing for a loss of 2.

Some days I am set on a direction and can't bring myself to change my thinking. But, I know in advance that I am fighting the trend, and so I'm willing to give up easily, or just stand aside all day, which is pretty much what I did today.

I knew going in there was a chance crude could float it's way to 104, and as I type this it is testing 103.94. had my mind been wired differently this morning and decided to go with a continuation I might have seen a strong day.

What concerned me was that crude had set a higher high daily all week. In that situation, given the undertainty of going into a weekend, and coupled with the fact that new shorts had already been taken out, I tried to go for the traders exitting profitable positions into the close. There was about a 50 tick retracement going into 2pm, but to catch that move would have meant entering on a high with no volume confirmation. After the volume did start to show up to sell, it was already roughly 30 minutes before the close of the open pit, and I knew going in my window of opportunity was going to be closing. Once I saw they were not letting it go I was done, as I already knew momentum was not on my side.

Why I did not go along with the trend as of this morning is something I really can't answer with any real insight. But to try to get something out that I can read later;

1) Crude is so volatile and changes directions so often, that when an extended move comes I start to see it as overdone after awhile. I watch a 93 minute RSI that is currently pegged at 98 out of 100 indicating "overbought", and that is typically where I prefer to watch for a reversal.

2) The recent run up seems to have a lot of it's drive from events in Iran, but as of today (per my news sources) those potential supply issues are not confirmed, and so on a Friday with so many profitable long positions in the market, it seemed like some would lock in before the weekend. I don't really like to trade on fundamentals, and I know that if I trade technically I need to "trade what I see", but in the back of my mind I have a hard time participatating in what seems like unjustified panic. Possibly due to my more calm nature.


The good news is, I don't have to participate when I don't feel like it. And, I have been nailed enough times trying to fight the current that I knew better than to constantly swing away at a short trade. I recall a day a few years ago where I had multiple losses in a row becasue I did not believe in the direction the market was going and though it had gone way too far. It never goes too far. Overbought/oversold indicators mean nothing without some other contributing factor.

I could only find two possible places for a short trade today, and I waited for those to come. If I had made money shorting the absolute top of the move before 2pm, it would have been nothing more than a coin toss, so nothing missed there.

The saying "you can please all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you can't please all of the people all of the time" comes to mind. Some days my beliefs are aligned with what the market wants to do, but that will never be an every day occurence. That's why I don't believe in daily goals. They can make a trader try too hard to be "right".

I did not agree today, so I sat and watched for 95% of the trading day, meanwhile all the current long-biased traders had all the fun.


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  #1425 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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GaryD View Post
end of day: ...Why I did not go along with the trend as of this morning is something I really can't answer with any real insight. But to try to get something out that I can read later;

1) Crude is so volatile and changes directions so often, that when an extended move comes I start to see it as overdone after awhile. I watch a 93 minute RSI that is currently pegged at 98 out of 100 indicating "overbought", and that is typically where I prefer to watch for a reversal.

2) The recent run up seems to have a lot of it's drive from events in Iran, but as of today (per my news sources) those potential supply issues are not confirmed, and so on a Friday with so many profitable long positions in the market, it seemed like some would lock in before the weekend. I don't really like to trade on fundamentals, and I know that if I trade technically I need to "trade what I see", but in the back of my mind I have a hard time participatating in what seems like unjustified panic. Possibly due to my more calm nature.



back to @zt379 saying "Who is the I that is meeting this moment ?", that is a good example.

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  #1426 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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Like Godzilla over Japan, I stood in my yard watching enitre communities of fire ants be destroyed with the help of my superpower, Amdro. Not much on my to-do list today, other than recoup, contemplate.

I read back through several weeks of my journal and found some random pieces that are starting to come together. Around the end of the year I took a major step back from trade frequency, then got busy with outside business, then came back to trading like a scalping maniac, then felt guilty for the heavy trade frequency, then realized when I am sitting at home with plenty of time I am not as interested in participating unless the market fits my beliefs.

@Deucalion brought "visceral and darwinian" to my attention. @zt379 brought up the question, who is the "I" meeting the moment. And those frames of thought seem to form a border around my own comments.

Looking at operating from the visceral side, when I feel like I am in my comfort zone, I trade completely differently than when I feel I am not in control. Elements that make me feel calm;

1) No time limits
2) Familiar surroundings
3) Full view of the market (multiple and full-sized monitors)

When I am at a calm and comfortable place in my mind and my environment, I move along the scale from survival towards conquering. When I am rushed, in new hotels, on a laptop, I am not coming from a position of strength, and so the survival adrenaline kicks in.

Something as simple as being home or not, changes the "I" that I bring to the market.




I am playing with a 15 range chart today, something I have never tried before. I've dropped an EMA and EMA price bands, Ichilines, Ichicloud, and two MACDs, and just stare at it, changing settings back and forth, then staring some more. I have it and my 6 range running with a global crosshair, kind of visual backtesting. Whether it makes it to a trading setup or not, I never know, but I enjoy the process.


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  #1427 (permalink)
 zt379 
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Quoting 
I don't really like to trade on fundamentals, and I know that if I trade technically I need to "trade what I see", but in the back of my mind I have a hard time participatating in what seems like unjustified panic. Possibly due to my more calm nature.

Serendipity takes a peek over destiny's horizon.
Perhaps by being calm (coming from your nature) gave you even more ability to participate in the chaos.
Ironically, I think often the more extreme the situation the clearer we see the sense of who we are.
It can seem a contradiction, but i think it depends from where we're looking at it.
For example, imagine two colours together side by side.
Aqua next to red makes the two colours clearer, where as say aqua next to sky blue, or red next to crimson
makes it harder to see the differences.

The chaos, in other words, highlights calms contrast.



GaryD View Post
back to @zt379 saying "Who is the I that is meeting this moment ?", that is a good example.

So following on from my ramble.
The I who is meeting this moment, is a measure of our self awareness I guess.
I see it as though the extent to which we are affected by outside influences is a measure
of how UNaware we are.

Perhaps we can use all the "stuff" of life that goes on around us as a measure of our self awareness.
ie: if we find ourselves overtly distracted etc..then that is actually a sign to show us we have lost our self awareness.

An image comes to mind of us being the hub of a wheel.
The center to which everything flows.
All those spokes of information, for example, that we use to trade with.
We sit, calmly at the center, at peace with the chaos spinning around us rather than the chaos spinning us around.

Perhaps its our awareness that turns it around,
and that awareness determines who meets the moment.

This is in line with what I mentioned (rambled) about opportunity and risk and our own support or resistance.
Resistance is (imo) usually to change.
We are taking the opportunity/risk in changing who meets this moment and that increased awareness then
creates support, there is less resistance each time.

Imo the moment is the present (and a gift), and the only space in which to take the opportunity
to be aware, indeed the only space in which awareness exists.

I need a lie down...

The weekend is as good a time as every day to ponder things...
Have a good one.
cheers...

"Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile..." zt379
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  #1428 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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Mickey Caine View Post
"Two mice fall in a bucket of cream. One gives up and drowns the other mouse keeps fighting and turns the cream into butter and walks out. I am that second mouse." Frank W Abagnale.

I used to have a favorite quote, "Success is getting up one more time than you got knocked down". It fell out of favor during my ride through the real estate collapse, as I felt more apathy than anything after so many years of trying to work things out. But your quote is similar and made me smile. I read it once before somewhere on futures.io (formerly BMT), but I don't recall seeing you post on this thread, so it was new to me all over again.

Not to be shown up by a mouse, I need to stop playing and get to the gym before it gets too late. I should feel lucky that the treadmill has a timer that I get to set. Making butter with something the size of mouse feet would be one long workout.

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 GaryD 
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 Cashish 
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GaryD View Post
Not to be shown up by a mouse, I need to stop playing and get to the gym before it gets too late. I should feel lucky that the treadmill has a timer that I get to set. Making butter with something the size of mouse feet would be one long workout.


Stay focused my friend the competition is fierce


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