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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets


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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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  #1401 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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Just confirmed I am airport bound again on Tuesday. I hope I can relax into a good trade between now and then.

It was good today just to watch the action on 3 monitors, I-tunes in the background, nowhere to be. I did have some paperwork to get out, and that distraction kept me from trying too hard.

I believe I am completely free tomorrow. With any luck I'll see what I am looking for and remember what a comfortable trade feels like again.

CL is sitting at a picture perfect place for a short entry according the 6 range as I type this, but my gues right now is it's lying. In many ways CL still looks like it wants to run up overnight, or at least through the Asian session. So did ES, before I shut that computer down.

I seem to be more interested in finding a turn than actually trading, and so I;m waiting for a reversal or a breakout on a 120 minute before I do anything I'd really consider a trade.

The whole world seems to be buying crude right now, and I certainly must be a minority watching for a short. I don't want to pick the top, but if this trade starts to get unwound it should be worth the wait.

I watched the market daily through the Libya crisis, and saw some very impressive moves in both directions. If this Iranian disruption fear is anything similar...

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  #1402 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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  #1403 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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It's almost 11pm EST, and I just got home from dinner wiht my wife to find the crude is still stuck in the middle of resistance, just as it was hours ago. It can't go forward, and it can't retreat.

While it is reasuring to see that the zone is placed correctly, it is nearly agonizing to me for it to stay in this position of ambiguity. If it will break out to the upside, green light. If it can't, red light. But it just sits, not sure what to do.

The hype about Iran has it pinned to the ceiling, but the reality is not yet enough to push it through the roof.

But, the longer it sits here, the more shorts will join in, looking for reduced risk trades with the "obvious" resistance, and thus the more fuel it will have to ignite with just a small push higher.

I would love to take a trade while I am at home and have plenty of time, but the move up was coming out of resistance this morning, and so it was hard for me to get excited about the long side, and meanwhile it refused to reverse, and so there were not real trade opportunites to the short side.

Crude is extremely vunerable in both directions right now, and makes it to where I am not interested either way until it makes it's own decision. There is an ascending triangle setting up, and a breakout above the cyan line would be a good triggger to be long-ready. But I have seen immense volume in this area that is liquidating, so a breakout could just as easily be a false move / washout.

I am conscious of the fact that I am craving a trade, which keeps me even more reserved and cautious. Had I been home all week I believe I would have gone long for a run this morning. Maybe not, but I know I would feel more fluid if I were relaxed, and I have determined that I am not relaxed enough to trade respectably when I am on the move.

I am keeping myself open to the possibility that I may not find the trade I am longing for while I have a few days to do so. It is tough on me to consider that, but it is where I need to be. When the desire to trade becomes too strong, the trading does not come from the right place. It is better that I don't care. But, being as obsessed as I am about this, it is easier for me to "not care" when time is plentiful, but when I feel as if I am being kept away, the desire starts to take priority over the skill. And so I scalp away at mediocre opportunites.

Maybe that is why I decided to hunt for a short trade in a market with such strong momentum against me. It forces me to have everything line up.

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 GaryD 
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 GaryD 
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closed +20

I'm not sure I want to go against the prior momentum quite yet.

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 GaryD 
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The market is most likely anticipating a move higher, waiting for ES to find support . There are buyers for crude around 102.70. It's been so long since I could sit and watch all day I am questioning myself, and so I am flat.

If I could script the move; New shorts get taken out above 103.30, then volume sellers appear, then I re-enter short.

But, we could also see 104 before the close.

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 Ralph07 
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Hi Gary,

I just noticed that there is twice more volume on the April contract... Don't you think it is time to switch?

Raph

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 GaryD 
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 GaryD 
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rdaune View Post
Hi Gary,

I just noticed that there is twice more volume on the April contract... Don't you think it is time to switch?

Raph




You're right. Those new short just got hit.

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  #1410 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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This is the opposite of normal. Low volume high movement. Blew the new shorts on a tiny push.


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