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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets


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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

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 GaryD 
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 GaryD 
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If there were a market that had the odds of a lottery ticket, it might be natural gas. I have watched this as a curiosity for a couple years now. It does not seem to have a bottom, (and it is way too thin for me), but just as a fantasy trade I am watching this recent spike and dreaming of the holy reversal.






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 GaryD 
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For some reason I keep coming back to this.

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 GaryD 
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Resistance did hold through the overnight price movement and has pushed crude back roughly 150 ticks. I did not take a short trade overnught as I had mentioned as there is too much uncertainty regarding a possible supply disruption, and therefore do not want to be short in this market when I am not able to watch it.

Now that crude has made a sizable pullback, off resistance, this morning's action could go either way. There are several targets above the market, but the minor upward trendline is currently down around 99.50. The prior minor double top is a good candidate for possible support.

The employment report is at 8:30am EST and may provide a clue.

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 GaryD 
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There is an interesting pause at resistance after this morning's burst higher.




The market reached the 618 retracement of the move down.




And heavy volume was there to meet it.


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 GaryD 
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I caught $112.50 out of QM (however many ticks that is) after the initial volume burst this morning and a retrace to around 101.50, but after yesterday's move down in nearly all correlated markets, and the following retrace, was anticipating some long position liquidation and am still not anxious to make a trade right now.


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 GaryD 
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Waiting patiently for a short. It may be silly, but I also need a day or two to digest. I am 2 for 2, one in QM, one in CL.

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 GaryD 
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There is the 6 range reversal, finally. At this time of day I am probably out.

**EDIT: I must be entirely worn out from last week. I completely forgot about a losing trade I took early this morning, and I guess since I drag and drop my target most of the time did not think about it. I was in the shower when it occured to me I had a loss and came back to run a performance report. And, since I went back to my trade records, I also realized my CL scalp was 11 ticks, not 10. It's no wonder I don't feel like I am quite ready to commit to a trade. I need to think about that some.

Restating results;

Long QM -37.50 (-7.5 ticks CL)
Long QM +150 .00 (+30 ticks CL)
Long CL +110.00

Net $222.50 less commissions. (33.5 normal ticks)**

I almost went for the long swing today, and should have in hindsight from a financial perspective, but never anticapated a full retrace on ES, and apparently neither did a lot of hurting shorts. (**Plus, not feeling "all there" today**)

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 GaryD 
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I used to get really frustrated with myself for not joining in on a big run, like today's run up. Today I doubted it and just wanted to see what happened, and while I maintained a downward bias, was happy with myself for never trying to step in front of the momentum. If I am wrong, crude should burst through the stops that are alomst certainly building up above this resistance zone, and if I am right, I am prepared for the move. But, it may be tomorrow, or Monday, or I may just be wrong this time. But, I'd be wrong and out, which is just as good as right and in.

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 GaryD 
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End of day. Resistance still holding.



Feb. 16, 2012, 1:40 p.m. EST
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Crude-oil futures hovered at a six-week high Thursday, supported by positive U.S. macroeconomic data and rising U.S. stocks. Oil started off lower as some of the geopolitical fears left the market following media reports that Iran has responded to European Union attempts to resume talks on the country’s nuclear program.

Positive data on the key twin concerns of the U.S. recovery -- jobs and housing -- sent oil higher. Natural-gas futures rallied, meanwhile, on the back of a larger-than-expected weekly government demand report. Crude oil futures for March delivery (NMN:CLH2) rose 43 cents, or 0.4%, to $102.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

“The trend is up, and (the market) hasn’t found a top yet,” said Tom Bentz, a managing director with BNP Paribas in New York.

The gains followed lingering worries of supply disruption, still present despite the latest news, he added.

March natural gas (NMN:NGH12) rose 13 cents, or 5.25%, to $2.55 per million British thermal units.

Crude futures settled at a five-week high on Wednesday mostly on reports that Iran had halted oil supplies to the EU in retaliation to sanctions over its nuclear program. Tehran denied cutting off supplies, but investors kept worrying about potential supply disruptions as the sparring between Iran, the third largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia and Russia, and Western powers gave no signs of abating. Iran has since replied to a letter sent in October by EU policy chief Catherine Ashton offering to re-open talks on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday. The response comes a day after President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was seen on Iranian state television attending an elaborate ceremony held to unveil developments in Iran’s domestic nuclear program.

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