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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets
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Catching Big Waves - a trader's journal of surfing the the markets

  #1381 (permalink)
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closed +6

 
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This is the bar that made me consider closing, then later when it looked like I was going for breakeven or worse, I got out.

 
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Feb. 15, 2012, 9:30 a.m. EST
Oil higher on fears of supply disruption, Iran


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures traded higher Wednesday as fears of supply disruption dominated after Iran reportedly cut oil supplies to several European countries. Oil for March delivery (NMN:CL2H) rose 98 cents, or 1%, to trade at $101.73 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Iran's cuts comes in retaliation to an embargo the European Union approved last month, when the EU said it would forgo Iranian crude by July.



Short may be a tough direction today.

 
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.......

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........................


GaryD View Post
..........Short may be a tough direction today.

Price has fulfilled its wave target as intended, news is bullish, the tails don't agree...so far

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Resistance held, actually never got re-entered today. But the potential for an oil supply interruption coupled with the 2pm FOMC made for a non-eventful move so far.

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But, for some reason I still am feeling the dark, I mean short side...


Net for the day, one trade, +6

Maybe overnight...

 
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You maybe right............Even though I have gotten out of my swing trade on QM based on that 240M 102 target, I think I have made a mistake...because that daily is not breaking...and that inverted HNS is still there!! whose target remains....106 - 108ish....

I may have to re-enter another long on QM based on that.....I would have to see that wave zone on the 240M violated to the upside and then come back to retest to be long though.

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zt379 View Post
"That imo is not about taking out the noise, but the ability to be at peace within it."

Yes, to be at peace with the noise could be one of the most important factors in maximizing potential. I think what my issue has been lately is I am not at peace in general. I am tired, rushed, limited, not at home, on a tiny monitor, etc.



zt379 View Post
Just that in this space of both opportunity and risk, as you've described, our relationships, as with any, are at their most productive and satisfying, when we come to them from our own nature. Our struggles, imo, mostly are about finding that true nature from which we are then able to come.


I had not considered it that way, but I will try to look in that direction. That may be as simple as my last comment, that my "nature" is to be relaxed when I am home and have plenty of time, and not relaxed when I am not.


zt379 View Post
Who is the I that is meeting this moment ?

It depends on my state of mind, which is currently being affected by my outside obligations.


zt379 View Post
"you could be walking around lucky and not even know it".

That is actually something I am very aware of. I comment to myself regularly that my analysis is better than my trading, and what I think that really means is I trust myself for a certain distance, but no further. Knowing when to hold and when to fold is probably a lifelong struggle though.



zt379 View Post
We face, ironically, imo, our own support or resistance and a challenge perhaps between opportunity and risk.

That one caught my attention, but I can't really say I digested it. I've repeated it several times, and tried to place mine, but maybe my definition is what is throwing me. I should probably think of those zones as holding rather than giving way and I would be on the right track of your comment. But, I don't like to channel trade, and so see SR zones as places to be aware and see what happens.


zt379 View Post
Can we risk what we already know, other than to lose what we no longer need ?

No, but knowing exactly how to surgically separate the good from the bad is possibly a task more difficult than trading itself.



Thanks for the comments.

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Deucalion View Post
You maybe right............Even though I have gotten out of my swing trade on QM based on that 240M 102 target, I think I have made a mistake...because that daily is not breaking...and that inverted HNS is still there!! whose target remains....106 - 108ish....

I may have to re-enter another long on QM based on that.....I would have to see that wave zone on the 240M violated to the upside and then come back to retest to be long though.


I've been eyeing it's big brother.


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Deucalion View Post
Price has fulfilled its wave target as intended, news is bullish, the tails don't agree...so far

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Yes, your zone was drawn a little higher than mine, but the LSP zone extended to 102.82 (which really makes resistance as I see it 102.00 to 102.85), and price stayed below that. If crude gets above this zone I'd like to go with it, but until it does I am keeping watch of it. and decided to color it red for myself until then.

I'm not sure what to think of the potential shortage issues right now, and am trying not to have an opinion, but, I realize that could generate a big push at any moment, and that alone is going to keep the shorts a little jumpy and vulnerable. One reason I stayed out the rest of today.


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