Add 1 big tick (at this time 10 ticks after the exit) in the ES for a net positive $2.50 before commissions.
Net loss after commissions.
I just noticed I had four losing trades in a row today and still finished even. While I have been catching smaller moves than I would prefer recently (I am assuming from not trading crude for about a month), I have believed for some time that the key to success has more to do with keeping your losses small than percentage profitable.
Price has been in a trading range, which while obvious after the fact is tough to know sometimes in advance. And, I already know I am not very good at rangebound conditions, so a breakeven is a good day for me considering the circumstances.
I sat flat for a long time after the two back-to-back large losses, realizing I was not up to speed with what was happening. And I remained very conservative the rest of the day. I notice that after the two 18 tick losses, I went to dropping the next two trades very fast. Somewhat gun shy. Not really "good" behavior, but I got very defensive.
I was able to relax and hold a short long enough to almost get back to even (would have been positive had I stayed in), and, on a later major divergence I was able to scalp a long to get back to even. (It would have gone to positive also had I held longer, but I was still playing defense in both trades)
I am happy with this "bad" day. I'll never trade perfectly, but I strive to trade within my limits of understanding, push when I am hot, and watch when I am not.
Last edited by GaryD; January 31st, 2012 at 08:45 PM.
Reason: I am recalling the wrong trade ;) and typos
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Today was an interesting pattern, where price broke the prior tirangle to the upside, then reversed to break it on the opposite side, in about the same amount as it broke to the upside. The shape is now becoming more of a rectangle, and we now see a minor double top in place, while the minor double bottom remains unbroken.
97.80 is the minor left shoulder pivot of this possible inverted double headed market, and price responded to it as such, showing significant divergence as of today's close.
Price will eventually leave this area, and the longer it holds, the more force it could have as it does.